(Plays 4/1 - 4/7)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-01-24, 05:07 PM

Beginning Balance = 143.28

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-01-24, 05:37 PM

1* NBA play = Portland +17 (1.94). 1 to win .94.
...How does this one look in your NBA database? (DD Dog off Loss 60 vs HFav off win 30).
...Looking for a professional effort from the Blazers.
...I see some reasons to fade ORL. Could also see them coasting late.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-01-24, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* NBA play = Portland +17 (1.94). 1 to win .94.
...How does this one look in your NBA database? (DD Dog off Loss 60 vs HFav off win 30).
...Looking for a professional effort from the Blazers.
...I see some reasons to fade ORL. Could also see them coasting late.

Blazers play their balls off. Lose by only one. Day = 1-0.

**stevenash** · 04-01-24, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Blazers play their balls off. Lose by only one. Day = 1-0.

Good job.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-01-24, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Good job.

Thank you, Nashy. The bad teams are Buyer Beware in NBA. Had reasons I liked this one.

**stevenash** · 04-01-24, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thank you, Nashy. The bad teams are Buyer Beware in NBA. Had reasons I liked this one.

The bad teams are excellent fades.
Sharp eye my friend.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-01-24, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

The bad teams are excellent fades.
Sharp eye my friend.

I'm saying...they're HUGE DOGS for a reason. At times this season, seems like the # doesn't matter.

**stevenash** · 04-01-24, 10:06 PM

I just checked out the NBA overnights.
Holy Mother of God.

Lakers open -12.5 as road favorites v. Toronto.
Bucks are road favorites -13.5 v. Washington (that'll be garbage time before the half)
Cavs -11.5 road favorite v. Utah.

Denver at home -16.5 Spurs (Jokic triple-double) before the half.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-01-24, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I just checked out the NBA overnights.
Holy Mother of God.

Lakers open -12.5 as road favorites v. Toronto.
Bucks are road favorites -13.5 v. Washington (that'll be garbage time before the half)
Cavs -11.5 road favorite v. Utah.

Denver at home -16.5 Spurs (Jokic triple-double) before the half.

That's what I'm saying. GL finding Dog-value on those games.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 08:22 AM

2* SAC Kings +2.5 (1.94). 2 to win 1.88.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* SAC Kings +2.5 (1.94). 2 to win 1.88.

2* Dallas Mavs +1 (1.92). 2 to win 1.84.

**veriableodds** · 04-02-24, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I just checked out the NBA overnights.
Holy Mother of God.

Lakers open -12.5 as road favorites v. Toronto.
Bucks are road favorites -13.5 v. Washington (that'll be garbage time before the half)
Cavs -11.5 road favorite v. Utah.

Denver at home -16.5 Spurs (Jokic triple-double) before the half.

Are these heavies even still playing for something? If they are in already motivation would be far less. On the opposite side I have listed opponents ATS
tor 31-43
wsh 34-39
utah 38-36
sa 38-36

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Are these heavies even still playing for something? If they are in already motivation would be far less. On the opposite side I have listed opponents ATS
tor 31-43
wsh 34-39
utah 38-36
sa 38-36

That's the catch-22, veri. I've been saying this about Boston.

Re: the other playoff contenders, a lot of seeding implications. So, I would say YES, they have motivation.

But the #s are insane. Do these teams need to win by a Million?

**veriableodds** · 04-02-24, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

That's the catch-22, veri. I've been saying this about Boston.

Re: the other playoff contenders, a lot of seeding implications. So, I would say YES, they have motivation.

But the #s are insane. Do these teams need to win by a Million?

Seed #'s in my opinion don't carry that much weight. If you in your in no reasoning to risk injury to get a #4 vs a 9#

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Seed #'s in my opinion don't carry that much weight. If you in your in no reasoning to risk injury to get a #4 vs a 9#

Depends. I'll give you a few examples:

*In the West, GoldSt/Hou have been battling for the 10-spot. Have to get in.
*In the East, I think the 3-seed is much better than the 4-seed. Knicks have to be targeting the 3-seed.

**veriableodds** · 04-02-24, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Depends. I'll give you a few examples:

*In the West, GoldSt/Hou have been battling for the 10-spot. Have to get in.
*In the East, I think the 3-seed is much better than the 4-seed. Knicks have to be targeting the 3-seed.

Just my take Chuck, that's a headache delving that deep into a high variance pro sport. What about the flip side the losing side? Players final efforts could bring more options, and money in the future.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Just my take Chuck, that's a headache delving that deep into a high variance pro sport. What about the flip side the losing side? Players final efforts could bring more options, and money in the future.

Maybe I'm not explaining myself, Veri. I think there's motivation on all fronts:

*I have long since thought the same thing in NFL. The DANGEROUS TEAMS are the eliminated teams in DEC.
...On those teams, guys are playing for jobs. If they get cut, they want to show up well on film for the NEXT TEAM.

So, I agree with you. Motivation is a tricky term. General consensus that NEED TEAMS get priced up a few points...and that's probably artificial.

See my Portland play on MON. One of my reasons was that a pro team is supposed to respond to a 60-pt loss.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 12:51 PM

3* NY Knicks +3 (2.02). 3 to win 3.06.
...Knicks have been playing well. In L10 they have only one sizable loss, the game @DEN.
...Knicks now off two close losses. Feel like they'll be motivated to seek out the 3-seed. Big difference btw the 3- and 4-seed in the East.
...I view the Knicks as a bigger threat (than MIA) in the playoffs. Knicks a much better rebounding team, have the advantage there.
...MIA off a walkover game, where they won by 60. And Spoelstra knows that his guard options are pretty limited.
...Love the points here. Knicks should have every chance to get the road win.

**stevenash** · 04-02-24, 01:32 PM

I see the Lakers game and the Cavs games are circled.

I guess the books are capping limits there because they don't even know what D-Leaguers are playing tonight.
That's just my opinion.

**veriableodds** · 04-02-24, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Maybe I'm not explaining myself, Veri. I think there's motivation on all fronts:

*I have long since thought the same thing in NFL. The DANGEROUS TEAMS are the eliminated teams in DEC.
...On those teams, guys are playing for jobs. If they get cut, they want to show up well on film for the NEXT TEAM.

So, I agree with you. Motivation is a tricky term. General consensus that NEED TEAMS get priced up a few points...and that's probably artificial.

See my Portland play on MON. One of my reasons was that a pro team is supposed to respond to a 60-pt loss.

*Which team has the most motivation
*Final days for non-participation teams to participate
*Few points off=value in the line
*Portland example from MON. Exactly just as in MLB you can have 5 dogs all with qualified parameters, and have a fair showing for last 10 games, at the end of the day your skunked or only 1 win (Its just pro sport variance)

**veriableodds** · 04-02-24, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I see the Lakers game and the Cavs games are circled.

I guess the books are capping limits there because they don't even know what D-Leaguers are playing tonight.
That's just my opinion.

Printer, pen, and paper is how I still do it. When I go to desk and I'm missing 7 pens, I will be for sure searching for the wife's purse.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

*Which team has the most motivation
*Final days for non-participation teams to participate
*Few points off=value in the line
*Portland example from MON. Exactly just as in MLB you can have 5 dogs all with qualified parameters, and have a fair showing for last 10 games, at the end of the day your skunked or only 1 win (Its just pro sport variance)

Nobody loves a contrarian dog than me. That's for sure.

Who was crazy enuf to back Portland last nite? I expected a good shot at the cover.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Copy from last thread:

2* NIT play: 4/2 - Utah Utes +2.5 (1.94). 2 to win 1.88.

...Not that impressed by IND St. Their 31-6 SU record is flattering.
...Didn't play much of a schedule. And the Mizz Vall is down from years when they got multiple teams into the NCAAs.
...Beat an injury-depleted Cincinnati team to get here.
...Utes are the more physical team. Should have an edge on the boards.

...Adding two more units. Utes +2.5 (2.08). 2 to win 2.16.
...So, total of four units on the Utes.

Adding a unit: Utes +3.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96.
...5 units of action on the Utah Utes.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* SAC Kings +2.5 (1.94). 2 to win 1.88.

We luck out on this one. Leonard ruled out for Clips.

I'm hedging back one unit on the Clippers. +3 (1.88). 1 to win .88.
...Not sure Leonard is worth THAT MUCH on the line-move.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 06:11 PM

Will keep a standard of NOT posting < 30 min b4 tip.

Good Luck, everyone!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I just checked out the NBA overnights.
Holy Mother of God.

Lakers open -12.5 as road favorites v. Toronto.
Bucks are road favorites -13.5 v. Washington (that'll be garbage time before the half)
Cavs -11.5 road favorite v. Utah.

Denver at home -16.5 Spurs (Jokic triple-double) before the half.

Nashy, one late-season theme to watch: *The emergence of Wemby.
...He's going to lead the league in Blocks.
...Offense coming around?

They are up by 9 at Denver.

**stevenash** · 04-02-24, 09:43 PM

Wemby is going to be a generation superstar.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Wemby is going to be a generation superstar.

Looks like it.

1* NBA Play for WED = NEW ORL Pelicans -4 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Wemby is going to be a generation superstar.

Wow, what a stat-line from Wemby. He was only a few pips away from a Quadruple Double:
23 pts
15 Reb
8 Ast
9 Blk

...By the way, Spurs are pretty banged-up. Five guys out right now.

**stevenash** · 04-02-24, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

...By the way, Spurs are pretty banged-up. Five guys out right now.

They're dropping like flies tonight.
Osman went down midgame, so did Kesler.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-02-24, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Blazers play their balls off. Lose by only one. Day = 1-0.

Pretty miserable day:

(Coll 0-5) + (NBA 2-6) = 2-11. Week = 3-11.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-03-24, 08:25 AM

NIT Final
3* Seton Hall +3.5 (1.92). 3 to win 2.76.
...Utah disappointed me. In particular, I expected them to be tougher on the boards.
...I know the venue is in INDSt's home state. But it's NOT on their home court.
...Don't think the Sycamores have anyone to check Andrew Gaze. Gaze goes crazy, and the Pirates win it.

**stevenash** · 04-03-24, 10:42 AM

Jersey boys are doing to the NIT what UConn is doing in the NCAA.

Chucky, are you in New York?

**johnnyvegas13** · 04-03-24, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

NIT Final
3* Seton Hall +3.5 (1.92). 3 to win 2.76.
...Utah disappointed me. In particular, I expected them to be tougher on the boards.
...I know the venue is in INDSt's home state. But it's NOT on their home court.
...Don't think the Sycamores have anyone to check Andrew Gaze. Gaze goes crazy, and the Pirates win it.

Venue a pretty big deal for the championship game

gl tonight