SBR's Jon Metler shares his 3 best NBA player props for Game 1 of the Finals tonight between Denver & Miami.
Take advantage of Caesars' Game 1 50% SGP Profit Boost and move the odds from +550 to +825. That's an extra potential $55 profit on a $20 wager.
Jimmy Butler Under 26.5 points (+106)
"I've taken a shot at playing the Under with Butler in these NBA Playoffs before, and let's just say it didn't go as planned. He ended up costing us a few units. However, that won't deter me from capitalizing on some promising numbers I've come across for Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Nuggets at our best sports betting apps. You already know the story: Butler has been logging heavy minutes throughout a grueling seven-game series, nursing a troublesome ankle, and now he's facing the challenge of playing at altitude in Denver.
Butler is expected to score 26.9 points against the Nuggets on Thursday according to projections. That has me eyeing an alternate Under on Butler's points prop. Based on this projection, we can price the Under 26.5 points at -106. This implies an expected value of 6% for the +106 price point at FanDuel. On the flip side, the same projection prices the Under 27.5 points at -129, but it's trading at -122 on FanDuel. This gives us an expected value of 3%. So, by going after the alternate Under, we're essentially doubling our expected value."
Jamal Murray Under 25.5 points (+100)
"I placed this bet as a straight bet in our NBA best bets at -104, but guess what? You can actually get an even better number right now at FanDuel, at +100, than when I made the bet. Surprising, right? I expected to see more movement on this line at FanDuel, but hey, I'd still recommend taking it as a straight bet regardless.
Now, let's talk about Murray. According to projections, he's expected to score 24.3 points against the Heat. This allows us to price the Under 25.5 points at -140. Our projection reveals a significant gap between our price and the market price, which could raise a red flag, especially considering the lack of line movement. However, the Under is trading at -130 at Pinnacle, which is much closer to the price our projection suggests.
Despite the market's lack of movement at FanDuel, there are still compelling reasons to believe that taking the Under at +100 is a strong bet. Our projections, along with the Pinnacle price, suggest that there's value in this wager."
Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points (-118)
"If you happened to read my article about the four bold futures bets I made ahead of the NBA Finals, it'll all make sense when I say I hope that Porter surpasses this total with at least six three-pointers. Now, when it comes to Porter's odds, FanDuel isn't offering the most favorable price at -118. You can actually find a better price at BetMGM, where they have the Over trading at -105. However, FanDuel does have the best pricing for the other two legs involving Murray and Butler.
Porter is expected to score 17.3 points against the Heat on Thursday according to projections. This allows us to price the Over 15.5 points at -135. Now, some might argue that with a projection of 17.3 points, it's worth considering the alternate Over of 16.5 points, which offers plus money. I agree but upon double-checking the numbers, I found that the expected value on the Over 15.5 points was 1% higher."
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| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Heat-Nuggets | Butler Under 26.5 points, Murray Under 25.5 points, Porter Over 15.5 points | +543 |
Jimmy Butler Under 26.5 points (+106)
"I've taken a shot at playing the Under with Butler in these NBA Playoffs before, and let's just say it didn't go as planned. He ended up costing us a few units. However, that won't deter me from capitalizing on some promising numbers I've come across for Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Nuggets at our best sports betting apps. You already know the story: Butler has been logging heavy minutes throughout a grueling seven-game series, nursing a troublesome ankle, and now he's facing the challenge of playing at altitude in Denver.
Butler is expected to score 26.9 points against the Nuggets on Thursday according to projections. That has me eyeing an alternate Under on Butler's points prop. Based on this projection, we can price the Under 26.5 points at -106. This implies an expected value of 6% for the +106 price point at FanDuel. On the flip side, the same projection prices the Under 27.5 points at -129, but it's trading at -122 on FanDuel. This gives us an expected value of 3%. So, by going after the alternate Under, we're essentially doubling our expected value."
Jamal Murray Under 25.5 points (+100)
"I placed this bet as a straight bet in our NBA best bets at -104, but guess what? You can actually get an even better number right now at FanDuel, at +100, than when I made the bet. Surprising, right? I expected to see more movement on this line at FanDuel, but hey, I'd still recommend taking it as a straight bet regardless.
Now, let's talk about Murray. According to projections, he's expected to score 24.3 points against the Heat. This allows us to price the Under 25.5 points at -140. Our projection reveals a significant gap between our price and the market price, which could raise a red flag, especially considering the lack of line movement. However, the Under is trading at -130 at Pinnacle, which is much closer to the price our projection suggests.
Despite the market's lack of movement at FanDuel, there are still compelling reasons to believe that taking the Under at +100 is a strong bet. Our projections, along with the Pinnacle price, suggest that there's value in this wager."
Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points (-118)
"If you happened to read my article about the four bold futures bets I made ahead of the NBA Finals, it'll all make sense when I say I hope that Porter surpasses this total with at least six three-pointers. Now, when it comes to Porter's odds, FanDuel isn't offering the most favorable price at -118. You can actually find a better price at BetMGM, where they have the Over trading at -105. However, FanDuel does have the best pricing for the other two legs involving Murray and Butler.
Porter is expected to score 17.3 points against the Heat on Thursday according to projections. This allows us to price the Over 15.5 points at -135. Now, some might argue that with a projection of 17.3 points, it's worth considering the alternate Over of 16.5 points, which offers plus money. I agree but upon double-checking the numbers, I found that the expected value on the Over 15.5 points was 1% higher."
*New NBA Finals Sign Up Bonus at FanDuel* Get up to $2,500 back in bonus bets if you don't win your first bet!