Massive line move, Cincinnati now -2.5

pologq · 01-25-23, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Mahomey was playing injured all last year and was probably more injured than he is currently

Did you guys know anytime a team posted on Marc Lawrence playbook cover which was Bengals this year, that team has never won the SB? Think I heard it somewhere

really? damn i better cancel my bet. how did i luck out and win when they played the bills last week? did the universe do something wrong?

pologq · 01-25-23, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

If the Mahomes injury is serious than this juicy prop is in play.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 (DK) is in play.

I'll write it up on Sunday, but that's the best prop of the weekend.

that is juicy. i like it even if i take the bengals.

iwantcougars · 01-25-23, 12:07 PM

yeah that pacheco prop is juicy, will pound

d2bets · 01-25-23, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

If the Mahomes injury is serious than this juicy prop is in play.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 (DK) is in play.

I'll write it up on Sunday, but that's the best prop of the weekend.

Decent number, but I'm not that confident. They still don't run that much and McKinnon gets a lot of work too.

Fanduel has Mahomes 279.5 passing. Surprised they even have a number.

iwantcougars · 01-25-23, 01:28 PM

spread is falling down

iwantcougars · 01-25-23, 01:29 PM

perhaps oldbill is right

milwaukee mike · 01-25-23, 01:43 PM

bengals are the better team, and they don't care about playing on the road

burrow 3-0 against mahomes, yes they were close games but the bengals outgained kc by 127 yards over those 3 games

burrow only getting better, mahomes getting worse... this is a no-brainer bengals

Madison · 01-25-23, 01:53 PM

Books gotta be lovin this ... 2 competitive games. We could all retire just on the vig.

iwantcougars · 01-25-23, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Books gotta be lovin this ... 2 competitive games. We could all retire just on the vig.

huge arbitrage play

milwaukee mike · 01-25-23, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Books gotta be lovin this ... 2 competitive games. We could all retire just on the vig.

i'm already retired! problem is the freaking start times for everything in hawaii are ridiculous! 10am for the 49ers/eagles

i know woe is me

semibluff · 01-25-23, 02:11 PM

0 to 2.5 is hardly a massive line movement. It represents a shift from 50-50 to a 55-45 percent proposition. The Bengals should have opened as a small 52 or 53 percent favourite and the market has reacted.

Madison · 01-25-23, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

i'm already retired! problem is the freaking start times for everything in hawaii are ridiculous! 10am for the 49ers/eagles

i know woe is me

My sympathies, LOL. Retired here as well but got 20 years on ya so 10am works quite fine for me.

You can watch a double header and still possibly make the "Early Bird".

milwaukee mike · 01-25-23, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Madison

My sympathies, LOL. Retired here as well but got 20 years on ya so 10am works quite fine for me.

You can watch a double header and still possibly make the "Early Bird".

would need all the pricing help i can get, when a freaking cheeseburger anywhere is $20+tax+tip

come on bengals! daddy needs a new pair of shoes! or a plate of pasta which for some reason costs as much as the shoes!

stevenash · 01-25-23, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Decent number, but I'm not that confident. They still don't run that much and McKinnon gets a lot of work too.

Fanduel has Mahomes 279.5 passing. Surprised they even have a number.

True.
Before I place a prop bet I look at both sides of the coin.

First off, KC allowed 144 rush yards to the Jags in their sole playoff game.
Secondly, even though they were top ten vs. run in the regular season, that number is skewed when you factor in they played Denver, and LAC, and LV twice each who have no real major rush attack.
Point being Jags proved you can run on them.

Now, let's look at the principle of the prop bet, that being Isiah Pacheco.

Since becoming the lead back ten weeks ago, McKinnon became the ancillary back/receiving back, in those ten weeks Pacheco averaged 13.8 rushes per game for 728 yards or 72.8 rush yards and an average gain of 5.4 yards per rush.

The over 47.5 rush yards IMO is a very soft number.
Funny, I only bet that for 100 dollars and an hour later it's 48.5.
I'm the furthest thing from a whale, 100 dollars can't move the needled one yard.

And yes, totally agree, it's crazy to hang a pass yard prop on Mahomes who probably has a high ankle sprain.
I see DK doesn't have a number.

Madison · 01-25-23, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

would need all the pricing help i can get, when a freaking cheeseburger anywhere is $20+tax+tip

come on bengals! daddy needs a new pair of shoes! or a plate of pasta which for some reason costs as much as the shoes!

Good burger not that far off here MA.

daddy needs a new pair of shoes! ... Haven't heard that phrase for 4 decades. LOL

asiagambler · 01-25-23, 03:27 PM

This could be a fake move. Seems like there's a lot of public support for Bengals

stevenash · 01-25-23, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

This could be a fake move. Seems like there's a lot of public support for Bengals

Yeah, I'm on Cincy and apparently a lot of others are as well.
Hey, sometimes the public gets it right.

d2bets · 01-25-23, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Yeah, I'm on Cincy and apparently a lot of others are as well.
Hey, sometimes the public gets it right.

46.37512% of the time.

ChuckyTheGoat · 01-25-23, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

i'm already retired! problem is the freaking start times for everything in hawaii are ridiculous! 10am for the 49ers/eagles

i know woe is me

It's actually a BEAUTIFUL thing. Skip the pre-game. You wake up, and it's kickoff.

After the games wrap up, you still have time to enjoy the beach.

Nate rasta · 01-25-23, 07:00 PM

Bars must be great on the east coast for prime time games at 8 o'clock. Bars on the west coast at 5 are pretty dead.people still getting off work

stevenash · 01-25-23, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by Nate rasta

Bars must be great on the east coast for prime time games at 8 o'clock. Bars on the west coast at 5 are pretty dead.people still getting off work

I'm in New England, the sports bars here when big games are on, especially UCONN, or Giants, or the Pats are playing in bit spots are always two deep, especially here in Connecticut and Massachusetts.

stake1 · 01-26-23, 09:21 AM

Chiefs now -1 at bol

jmtbdj · 01-26-23, 09:51 AM

Cincy could be overvalued a bit here after performance at Buf. Bengals obviously a really good team but not as good as they looked last week. They were in a dogfight with Tyler Huntley before the fumble return just a week before. Cin getting 5-6 at Buf then favored a week later at KC? The Mahomes injury is obviously the big X factor, would be interesting to see what the line had been if he didn't get injured.

I'd set the true line more like KC -1.5, but game feels like it really could go either way.

stake1 · 01-26-23, 09:54 AM

I’m very happy with my chiefs +2’ bets. doubt we see them as dogs again

iwantcougars · 01-26-23, 10:05 AM

back to a pick

Jowframs · 01-26-23, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by stake1

I’m very happy with my chiefs +2’ bets. doubt we see them as dogs again

Yep line moving
Chiefs
Mahomie gonna be ok

stake1 · 01-26-23, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Stake, that's a great comment. How do you evaluate Kan City's defensive front?

*DT Chris Jones made 1st team All Pro.

I give the advantage to Chiefs this time vs the banged up, bengal o-line. Jones is a matchup disrupter (15' sacks), and frank clark? he is another havoc creator. but Kc also has very good depth on their line and I like Danna, Nnadi and dunlap to all play well and give burrow fits. Plus they have their future star in first round pick Karlaftis who can get to burrow too. i expect that rookie to get a sack on sunday

lakerboy · 01-26-23, 02:42 PM

Anyways mahomes looks fine. We can assume KC will go to-3 right? That's the least they can give to great Patrick mahomes right? You know the guy who is 2-2 in AFC championship games ( all at home).

iwantcougars · 01-26-23, 02:45 PM

doubt it get past -2

Seattle Slew · 01-26-23, 03:03 PM

The Bengals are so cocky it's really hard to root for them, and I'd root for anyone other than Kansas City.

I mean, Cinci hasn't won anything yet. Win a Super Bowl before you start acting like the 1990s Cowboys.

stake1 · 01-26-23, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Seattle Slew

The Bengals are so cocky it's really hard to root for them, and I'd root for anyone other than Kansas City.

I mean, Cinci hasn't won anything yet. Win a Super Bowl before you start acting like the 1990s Cowboys.

stevenash · 01-26-23, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by stake1

That's not cocky, that's routine post game celebration you'll find in most locker rooms.

lakerboy · 01-26-23, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

That's not cocky, that's routine post game celebration you'll find in most locker rooms.

I mean that franchise suffered for a long time. I give them a pass.

stake1 · 01-26-23, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

That's not cocky, that's routine post game celebration you'll find in most locker rooms.

with the new nfl playoff structure? winning a division is meaningless, imo. so to smoke a cigar and strut like you just won the Afc? nah.
now the grind of a 162 game mlb season? Hell yes! pop open the beer/whiskey/champagne, because that is a big deal to stay healthy for 162 and take your division

stevenash · 01-26-23, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by stake1

with the new nfl playoff structure? winning a division is meaningless, imo. so to smoke a cigar and strut like you just won the Afc? nah.
now the grind of a 162 game mlb season? Hell yes! pop open the beer/whiskey/champagne, because that is a big deal to stay healthy for 162 and take your division

If the Bengals are so cocky why did Joe Burrow just say respectfully in the latest presser "That KC is still the team to beat in the AFC"

A closed locker room celebration is one thing, but an open presser is something entirely different.

Now don't get me wrong Stake, I've always respected you and in the past, and I still do, but by the rapid fire multiple Eagles threads you created last week in the Giants game, and the way you're reaching now, sounds to me like you're either an Eagles fan or have an 'investment' in the Eagles now.

Tell me where I'm wrong?