Massive line move, Cincinnati now -2.5

[Brock Landers]

Is mahomes more injured than they were letting on?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Is mahomes more injured than they were letting on?

Could be. What does your intel tell you?

Brock, here's my angle on this:

*No one wants to be STUCK w/ a dead ticket on Henne...or an immbolized Mahomes.

Let's put probabilities on this:
10% Henne starts
10% Mahomes starts but can't move properly

If the fair # w/ Healthy Mahomes is around pk-em...you still have to ponder that 20% of the time where your ticket is dead.

[Brock Landers]

Could be. What does your intel tell you?

Brock, here's my angle on this:

*No one wants to be STUCK w/ a dead ticket on Henne...or an immbolized Mahomes.

Let's put probabilities on this:
10% Henne starts
10% Mahomes starts but can't move properly

If the fair # w/ Healthy Mahomes is around pk-em...you still have to ponder that 20% of the time where your ticket is dead.

Translation

Live bet this game only

[iwantcougars]

middle city

[iwantcougars]

it is back to 1.5

[d2bets]

Is mahomes more injured than they were letting on?

They said it's a high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains typically take several weeks to heal. He did not look healthy in the 2nd half. If that's how he moves, that's pretty bad.

I don't think anyone really knows, just speculation that it's bad because high ankle sprains usually are.

[ThaTopMoron]

Is mahomes more injured than they were letting on?

watch... late in the game bengals will be up 4 backed up on their own 2 yard line with 15 sec left 4th down... they will snap the ball and run around the back of the EZ to kill a few seconds till someone gets to them.. then run out for a safety. 9 sec left... safety punt and KC has to try to return it and fails. Bengals win by 2

[Jowframs]

watch... late in the game bengals will be up 4 backed up on their own 2 yard line with 15 sec left 4th down... they will snap the ball and run around the back of the EZ to kill a few seconds till someone gets to them.. then run out for a safety. 9 sec left... safety punt and KC has to try to return it and fails. Bengals win by 2

lol
Typical NFL shave job

[Jowframs]

Could be. What does your intel tell you?

Brock, here's my angle on this:

*No one wants to be STUCK w/ a dead ticket on Henne...or an immbolized Mahomes.

Let's put probabilities on this:
10% Henne starts
10% Mahomes starts but can't move properly

If the fair # w/ Healthy Mahomes is around pk-em...you still have to ponder that 20% of the time where your ticket is dead.

Has anyone thought players are buying cincy
Because they jumping ship on their Chiefs
SB Futures
Possible?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Has anyone thought players are buying cincy
Because they jumping ship on their Chiefs
SB Futures
Possible?

Not sure it's that. I think it's just that:

1) The Bengals LOOK better at the moment.
2) Mahomes is compromised.
3) As it relates to late-season NFL betting, a bettor wants to feel like they're backing the better QB. Right now, many bettors might vote Burrow > Mahomes with their wallet.

[gummo]

I guarantee they will have Mahomes ankle at 90% by game time. Line should be Chiefs -2.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I guarantee they will have Mahomes ankle at 90% by game time. Line should be Chiefs -2.5

That's the key, gummo. I really view this line as a function of How Much Confidence in Mahomes' Health?

See my note above. A KC bettor's worst FEAR is that they go to post w/ a dead ticket. I think that's driving the #.

[pologq]

i think people were jumping on the bengals assuming mahomes is not healthy and trying to get the best line. then others saw +2.5 on the chiefs and jumped maybe buying the half point. andy reid saying mahomes looked "OK" was not a great endorsment.

[lakerboy]

I would take Cincinnati whether he is healthy or not. KC was better last year then this year. Plus they had hill. This year Bengals are more polished and one year more under the belt. They shut down mahomes last year in the second hf. KC is not that great.

[sneakerhead]

I would take Cincinnati whether he is healthy or not. KC was better last year then this year. Plus they had hill. This year Bengals are more polished and one year more under the belt. They shut down mahomes last year in the second hf. KC is not that great.

everyone thinking bengals the obvious side is scary

i feel that the snow made their OL look much better then it would be without the environmental factors slowing down the pass rush.

[lakerboy]

everyone thinking bengals the obvious side is scary

i feel that the snow made their OL look much better then it would be without the environmental factors slowing down the pass rush.

You have a good point about the weather. The bills d never got there footing but why did Cincinnati get there's? The Bengals d is underrated. They pressure the QB with 4 guys. They dragged mahomes around the field last year in the second hf. They have figured out KC. The obvious thing is whatever. Books lose all the time on that stuff.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i think people were jumping on the bengals assuming mahomes is not healthy and trying to get the best line. then others saw +2.5 on the chiefs and jumped maybe buying the half point. andy reid saying mahomes looked "OK" was not a great endorsment.

Polo, your post is spot-on.

One thing you learn about sports-betting:
*Any Hamburger can say they like "Side A".
*No, it's about betting for value at a posted price.

Poster SteveNash noted how Cincy +1.5 might be the best you can get. Nashy has to feel good about holding that ticket. Hold enough of those +EV tickets...and you're a winner.

[stake1]

Bengals line problems will be huge problems this weekend. Completely different line those three backups face. burrow may have to throw 60+

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bengals line problems will be huge problems this weekend. Completely different line those three backups face. burrow may have to throw 60+

Stake, that's a great comment. How do you evaluate Kan City's defensive front?

*DT Chris Jones made 1st team All Pro.

[OldBill]

this is the SB loser and they were done after an 0-2 start and i dont care tat they played an extra week 0-2 teams or worse never won s b 's except 2 who got there the cowboys and Giants plus the 100% curse marc lawrence playbook cover jinx none won a sb incuding 2 who got there seattle R wilson a pcem vs Pats and Patriots tom brady in 2017 -4.5 lost s/u by 8 to Eagles

[Brock Landers]

Burrow is 3-0 lifetime vs Mahomes

[lakerboy]

Bengals line problems will be huge problems this weekend. Completely different line those three backups face. burrow may have to throw 60+

His pass attempt prop is at 37.5.

[OldBill]

remember last yEar CHIEFs the s b loser badstart 3-4 how did that end

[cincinnatikid513]

this is the SB loser and they were done after an 0-2 start and i dont care tat they played an extra week 0-2 teams or worse never won s b 's except 2 who got there the cowboys and Giants plus the 100% curse marc lawrence playbook cover jinx none won a sb incuding 2 who got there seattle R wilson a pcem vs Pats and Patriots tom brady in 2017 -4.5 lost s/u by 8 to Eagles

how many fuking times are u going to repeat the same shet over and over do u have dementia

[agendaman]

my gut says do not underestimate k.c here.andy reid plus mahommes at 80 per cent plus kelce is enough.cincy could be a repet f the bills last week.

[RockBottom]

Could be. What does your intel tell you?

Brock, here's my angle on this:

*No one wants to be STUCK w/ a dead ticket on Henne...or an immbolized Mahomes.

Let's put probabilities on this:
10% Henne starts
10% Mahomes starts but can't move properly

If the fair # w/ Healthy Mahomes is around pk-em...you still have to ponder that 20% of the time where your ticket is dead.

Why would you think Mahomes has a 10% chance of limited mobility? I would give it 100%

[Demonata]

Shannon Sharpe said mahomes will probably be around 60% at best. He knows a lot about football considering he's a hall of famer. Bengals all day.

[pologq]

the bengals beating the chiefs is almost like the patriots and how they always beat manning and the colts. be interesting to see if the trend continues.

[kyhawk]

I still can't get over last years championship game. Epic fail by Mahomes.

Cincinnati may just have their number

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ quarterback rating in the first half of Sunday’s game was 149.9. In the second half, it was 34.0 and in overtime was 0.0. ESPN’s Quarterback Rating stats show Mahomes had the largest gap “by half in the playoffs since QBR tracking began in 2006.” QBR has a zero to 100 rating, and Mahomes got a 98.0 in the first half. In the second half that rating was 1.4.Read more at: https://www.kansascity.com/sports/sp...#storylink=cpy

[stevenash]

it is back to 1.5

I think that's pretty much where it settles.
I got a good deal, I got Cincy +1.5 right from the jump at Heritage.

[trobin31]

Mahomey was playing injured all last year and was probably more injured than he is currently


Did you guys know anytime a team posted on Marc Lawrence playbook cover which was Bengals this year, that team has never won the SB? Think I heard it somewhere

[calamity sue]

The line moved because RAS issued a "buy" on KC at +2'. Not uncommon for a line to move like this, esp. for O/U's.

[stevenash]

If the Mahomes injury is serious than this juicy prop is in play.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 (DK) is in play.

I'll write it up on Sunday, but that's the best prop of the weekend.

[OldBill]

if mahoomes isnt like able to move around he still can pass the ball and do flips end arounds fawk up the O line of bengals who lost more players in bills game it hurts all team that played in snow windy icy conditions

i played heavy on snowy day flag type football next day boy was aching at 18 yrs old

ask anyone who played organized football in the snow and windy icy field

why do you think GB installed heating elements in field and other frigid stadiums

[stevenash]

why do you think GB installed heating elements in field and other frigid stadiums

Or you can just do this.