Chime in please: Good bet or bad bet?

[Nate rasta]

Messi!

Damn, I passed on this prop.

Oh man

[stevenash]

*my bad*

[Thrilla]

Nasher likes Nasher likes

[JayLA]

Let"s fcking gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo o

[stevenash]

Argentina isn't going to be denied.

[stevenash]

Nasher likes Nasher likes

I do have Argentina straight up, I don't think I posted that earlier.
Small bet, just 22/20

[JayLA]

I'm FIRED THE FK UP!!!!!!!!!!!

[Thrilla]

Nasher knows

[pologq]

i am glad you have argentina nash. sorry i thought you ended up taking it.

gun to my head before the match i would not have taken it.

[Thrilla]

I do have Argentina straight up, I don't think I posted that earlier.
Small bet, just 22/20

Signed by your pal Nasher

[TommieGunshot]

Messi to score at any time is quoted at +165 on another comparison site. That equates to 37.2%. Given the book price on this market the true probability is likely around 32%.

Circa had the No for -180 all day. At 32% chance of scoring, that would be a 5.8% edge. Highly doubtful that’s the correct probability when they we’re letting people bet it for as much as they could ever want.

[semibluff]

Circa had the No for -180 all day. At 32% chance of scoring, that would be a 5.8% edge. Highly doubtful that’s the correct probability when they we’re letting people bet it for as much as they could ever want.

Perfectly good point. I simply looked on oddschecker at their match bulletin points and Messi anytime was 32/19. I didn't check to see who offered those odds, (which could have been wrong), or what price was offered about NO, (mainly because the match was starting in 5 minutes). Prop bets normally have a much higher vig level than normal 2 outcome bets. My bad if the line was -180, +165. However, I was fairly kind on a possible 32% breakdown. A loss might have been more than 4% and a draw 7%. Maybe on a 36% probability Argentina winning was a 23% or 23.5% chance. Either way congrats to stevenash on the win.

[unde0087]

Argentina isn't going to be denied.

[JayLA]

my book was offering Croatia win / draw + btts at odds boost.

I think we can all agree that we should not believe any "boost" the book offers.

[Thrilla]

Your pal nasher