Chime in please: Good bet or bad bet?

[stevenash]

Messi to score AND Argentina to win +300
Yes or no?

[JayLA]

you gotta think croatia is going to zero in on messi and try their hardest to stop him, that's the only reason I wouldn't make that bet, nasher. It's fkn Messi though. He literally is a God among men...

[JayLA]

Gun to head, I 'd say YES but I'm a losing bettor...

[pologq]

i think it will be very hard for him to score unless he can draw a penalty kick

[jjgold]

Play it

[franz555]

As Pologq stated, Messi takes all the penalty kicks for Argentina , so that angle works if you expect a PK. Otherwise , Modric and Co are very disciplined on the defensive side of the ball and dont give up many scoring opportunities. For that reason i would want better odds

[goduke]

Bad because books are offering it as a boosted play. Books aren’t in the habit of giving away money. They give a fraction of these away so that just enough to hook the degenerates and then all the others have no shot

[goduke]

Bad because books are offering it as a boosted play. Books aren’t in the habit of giving away money. They give a fraction of these away so that just enough to hook the degenerates and then all the others have no shot

You can pretty much guarantee now that Messi won’t score or Argentina will lose

[Thrilla]

Just bet 5 bucks nasher and save the rest for things you know a shit about.

[JayLA]

You can pretty much guarantee now that Messi won’t score or Argentina will lose

my book is offering croatia win/draw + BTTS at boosted odds...
I know what you mean though. Those boosted bets odds usually lose

[Thrilla]

Gentina miss size at the back. Croatia can expose it just like the Dutch

[JayLA]

Gentina miss size at the back. Croatia can expose it just like the Dutch

DePaul is a gangster with a license to kill on the pitch

[stevenash]

Bad because books are offering it as a boosted play. Books aren’t in the habit of giving away money. They give a fraction of these away so that just enough to hook the degenerates and then all the others have no shot

First thing that popped into my mind.

[TommieGunshot]

I bet Messi at 175 and Argentina at -102. Independent events would pay +445. If Messi does score, that means Argentina’s chance of winning needs to increase from 50% to 69%. Database that shows games where Messi scores and his team doesn’t win would answer that question. Not something I have, so could only guess. I wouldn’t want to lay -300, so my guess is it’s good. But I like to avoid betting based bets on my guesses.

[stevenash]

Just bet 5 bucks nasher and save the rest for things you know a shit about.

I said to myself when I first saw this prop "for this prop to cash will Messi score a goal, if he does score a goal Argentina has a very good chance of winning"

The next thought I had was what Duke said in his post above, I said to myself even before Duke posted, "if the books are offering this prop, it's for a reason, and it's more than likely not in my favor"

By now most of you know I am NOT an exotic bettor, I very rarely bet parlays, teasers, and pleasers, "Buzzy the Bookie" (he is a real character by the way, I write about Buzzy's exploits often, but he's a real guy) taught be years ago "Billy, stay away from those bets that require two or more events to happen to cash one ticket" and Buzzy is correct, but I digress, I am a side, total, and prop spot bettor.

The purpose of this thread was just to get others input, I did consider it, 10/30 was what I was considering, I'm not pulling the trigger though.

[JayLA]

I bet Messi at 175 and Argentina at -102. Independent events would pay +445. If Messi does score, that means Argentina’s chance of winning needs to increase from 50% to 69%. Database that shows games where Messi scores and his team doesn’t win would answer that question. Not something I have, so could only guess. I wouldn’t want to lay -300, so my guess is it’s good. But I like to avoid betting based bets on my guesses.

interesting....

[JIBBBY]

Both these teams love playing to draws lately that's all I know.

[JayLA]

Both these teams love playing to draws lately that's all I know.

that's why i bet argentina to win and hedged a bit with arg in extra time and shootouts.

i dont think argentina wants penalties, especially after last match

[franz555]

Gentina miss size at the back. Croatia can expose it just like the Dutch

Great point. I keep coming back to the same thing and cant pull the trigger on Arg. Croatia are very good on set pieces , and have a distinct size advantage today. Thinking about the Over 2 @ 1.80

[unde0087]

Nassher, I will let you know an hour after the match goes final. I will also include a two paragraph writeup on why I knew whatever happened, was going to happen. Because it wouldn't be an SBR thread without at least one, now would it?

[lakerboy]

Both these teams love playing to draws lately that's all I know.

Argentina has one draw in 5 games.

[JayLA]

Argentina has one draw in 5 games.

Argentina does shut down if they go up 1-0 within 30-60 minutes. if they score early, it's open field

[stevenash]

Nassher, I will let you know an hour after the match goes final. I will also include a two paragraph writeup on why I knew whatever happened, was going to happen. Because it wouldn't be an SBR thread without at least one, now would it?

Wise ass.


I love you and hate you in the same breath.
We're like minded people, we tell it like it is, and if one doesn't like it, that's their problem.

Given the choice of loving you or hating you, umm...
I choose to love you (no not like that you half a hump ya).


Best of luck in all your endeavors Unde, your post made me chuckle, thanks.

[Thrilla]

Both these teams love playing to draws lately that's all I know.

Stay in your lane guy

[stevenash]

Stay in your lane guy

The breakdown shoulder lane?

[unde0087]

Wise ass.


I love you and hate you in the same breath.
We're like minded people, we tell it like it is, and if one doesn't like it, that's their problem.

Given the choice of loving you or hating you, umm...
I choose to love you (no not like that you half a hump ya).


Best of luck in all your endeavors Unde, your post made me chuckle, thanks.

It never fails. You wake up the next day after posting a play and some dude has posted a novel about how wrong you were time stamped 4 and a half hours after it went final. Yet said nothing before or during the game.

[stevenash]

It never fails. You wake up the next day after posting a play and some dude has posted a novel about how wrong you were time stamped 4 and a half hours after it went final. Yet said nothing before or during the game.

Truth.
Can I get a witness.

[semibluff]

Messi to score at any time is quoted at +165 on another comparison site. That equates to 37.2%. Given the book price on this market the true probability is likely around 32%. Most of that will be with Argentina winning, some of it with a draw, and even less with Argentina losing. I'd guesstimate Argentina + Messi at 21%. That would put the true odds at +376. +300 is a 'fun' bet rather than a business proposition, but I wouldn't rag on someone paying for entertainment.

[JayLA]

Messi to score at any time is quoted at +165 on another comparison site. That equates to 37.2%. Given the book price on this market the true probability is likely around 32%. Most of that will be with Argentina winning, some of it with a draw, and even less with Argentina losing. I'd guesstimate Argentina + Messi at 21%. That would put the true odds at +376. +300 is a 'fun' bet rather than a business proposition, but I wouldn't rag on someone paying for entertainment.

gosh i love it when you guys talk numbers.

[pologq]

gosh i love it when you guys talk numbers.

agreed. i am getting some blood flow.

[stevenash]

Messi!

Damn, I passed on this prop.

[franz555]

MESSI on a PK

[JayLA]

Ahem

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLL LLLLLLLL

[Nate rasta]

Your in great shape nashy!!!

[pologq]

i think it will be very hard for him to score unless he can draw a penalty kick