I know nothing about college football but when I made my 10 picks for the 128 man tourney I looked for a huge moneyline AND good line movement. Ball State's line was down from -16 to -15 at some Vegas sports books when I made my picks, I ruled Ball State out immediately (they lost outright today as you probably know).
On the other hand, I took Wisconsin over a bunch of teams like UCLA. Why? Wisconsin's line was up in Vegas from an opener of -14 to -17 meanwhile UCLA was down from an opener of -24 to a low of -19. Since then I've found out that UCLA is a particularly weak play this week.
Sometimes you can pick plays purely on line movement.
On the other hand, I took Wisconsin over a bunch of teams like UCLA. Why? Wisconsin's line was up in Vegas from an opener of -14 to -17 meanwhile UCLA was down from an opener of -24 to a low of -19. Since then I've found out that UCLA is a particularly weak play this week.
Sometimes you can pick plays purely on line movement.

