NFL week 08- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good info buddy thanks for the link!

You bet, Jack. Yes, it's pretty nice. Hope I got that acronym right.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 262 DETROIT Lions +3.5

Fading: Miami Dolphins.

Hard to make much of an argument for the Lions. The highest-scoring offense in the league dried up in the L2 games. Purely a contrarian play, going against the grain.

I do question Miami being bumped up to -3.5 so easily. Didn't show killer-instinct vs the Steelers. Tua is still a young QB. Is the HC trying to manage him w/ kid-gloves?

Dolphins look like such an ez pick. Can't be that easy.

One-time, Dan Campbell. GL, everyone.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

1st pick from USCPhillyGuy:

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Week 8. Ravens -1.5.

Grab it now

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ravens get there.

Any of the Thur bettors should feel welcome to take a pop at the Sun/Mon slate of games. GL.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Chucky hate saying this but as soon as I saw JV on Bucs, I doubled the wager

[Nate rasta]

Underdogs with a +3.5 or more spread are winning at 67% this season. Heard that stat on the radio

[agendaman]

all 4 teams in the NFC south are under .500.if t.bay can somehow win 6 of their last 9 games they could win the division.

[pologq]

pats -2.5 and seahawks -3

i am going against both NY Football Darlings right now and their hot starts. pats need a win and own the jets. giants are flying across the country and the seahawks are home and decent this year.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Underdogs with a +3.5 or more spread are winning at 67% this season. Heard that stat on the radio

Good stat, Nate!

Question is: *Will it continue?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky hate saying this but as soon as I saw JV on Bucs, I doubled the wager

Told my buddy that I might "like" Green Bay as a team. But I'm only LOYAL...to the Green-backs.

Johnny has hit his share. He goes in streaks like anyone else.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

pats -2.5 and seahawks -3

i am going against both NY Football Darlings right now and their hot starts. pats need a win and own the jets. giants are flying across the country and the seahawks are home and decent this year.

Thank you, Polo. These games will make your head spin.

Yes, the two New York teams are off to incredibly good starts. Good Luck.

Poster edawg takes his first loss of the year after 7-0 start. Nate is on fire, and I believe Philly has now won four straight.

Summary of picks.

101 Balt -1.5 (1x)W...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)LLL
251 Denver +2
259 Pitt +10.5
262 DET +3.5 (2x)
265 New Eng -2.5267 Tenn -1.5
269 NYG +3...with 270 SEA -3
271 Wash +4
273 San Fran -1.5...with 274 LARams +1

[TheMoneyShot]

Great thread Chucky

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great thread Chucky

Thx, Shot. Have a nice wkend. Hope you get laid...and eat heartily.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't think it's a smoke-screen. I think Tannehill is pretty banged-up:

*How predictable will TEN be on Sunday? I'd think VERY.

[TheLock]

I can’t decide between Seahawks, Patriots or Lions. I love them all

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I can’t decide between Seahawks, Patriots or Lions. I love them all

Tough one, Lock. You have a very good track record in here.

Appreciate your insights. Hope you have a great Sunday.

[jjgold]

Geno Smith is playing well. I would think you have to go with him.

[TheLock]

Seahawks -3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Seahawks -3

Thanks, Lock. Gonna mark you down.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks.
Lock's SEA selection tilts the ticket count to Sea 2, NYG 1.
101 Balt -1.5 (1x)W...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)LLL
251 Denver +2W
259 Pitt +10.5
262 DET +3.5 (2x)
265 New Eng -2.5
267 Tenn -1.5
269 NYG +3...with 270 SEA -3 (2x)
271 Wash +4
273 San Fran -1.5...with 274 LARams +1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx to all for contributing.

This week's card is enough to make a guy's head spin. How do you make sense of these games?

Good Luck. Enjoy the games.

[OldBill]

Packers +10.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Packers +10.5

Thank you, Bill. Marking you down:

Summary of picks.
Lock's SEA selection tilts the ticket count to Sea 2, NYG 1.
101 Balt -1.5 (1x)W...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)LLL
251 Denver +2W
259 Pitt +10.5
262 DET +3.5 (2x)
265 New Eng -2.5
267 Tenn -1.5
269 NYG +3...with 270 SEA -3 (2x)
271 Wash +4
273 San Fran -1.5...with 274 LARams +1

275 GBay +10.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ten Titans -1.5

They should be favored by 6
The line is way off on this one

Gonna pose one question:

*What would this line have been if a hobbled Tannehill had started?

The early-week -1.5 is very similar to the current -1.5 (w/ Willis). Felt all week that the Tannehill injury was priced into that the line and that he was likely to not play (even if he wanted to play).

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Honestly you should have 1 pick and that’s it

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Honestly you should have 1 pick and that’s it

That's a good policy, Philly. Sometimes, I just view the Thurs game as a precursor to the Sun/Mon card.

Props on your run. Have a great day.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gonna pose one question:

*What would this line have been if a hobbled Tannehill had started?

The early-week -1.5 is very similar to the current -1.5 (w/ Willis). Felt all week that the Tannehill injury was priced into that the line and that he was likely to not play (even if he wanted to play).

I'll add just one more comment, as the Ten/Hou game is playing out:

*Vrabel made a comment after last week's win. He noted how run-heavy the Titans have been.

Vrabael stated that "that's the way we're gonna be, if you haven't noticed."

Struck me how straight-forward he was with that comment. As if their offense has become so predictable.

[Nate rasta]

I thought Tannehill would play. What's weird is that the line went to -2.5 Friday morning and then Saturday it went to pick em

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I thought Tannehill would play. What's weird is that the line went to -2.5 Friday morning and then Saturday it went to pick em

Ya. The line on this game was so weird. I've been commenting on it.

With a healthy Tannehill, surely the # is -3 or higher. TENN is known as a tough-guy team. I think Tannehill was going to try to play.

He was in walking boot during the week. Practiced only sparingly. I think he didn't clear the medical.

So, the early -1.5 looks a lot like the gameday -1.5. Maybe there was more optimism on Friday that Tannehill could suit up.

[degennn]

Green Bay ml. Pure contrarian play.

[agendaman]

wow. is mccaffrey worth 4 draft picks.so far he is.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks.
Lock's SEA selection tilts the ticket count to Sea 2, NYG 1.
101 Balt -1.5 (1x)W...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)LLL
251 Denver +2W
259 Pitt +10.5L
262 DET +3.5 (2x)LL
265 New Eng -2.5W.
267 Tenn -1.5W.
269 NYG +3L...with 270 SEA -3 (2x)W.W.
271 Wash +4 W.
273 San Fran -1.5W....with 274 LARams +1L

275 GBay +10.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

8-8 ATS for the week, with GBay pending.

I have Nate Rasta recorded at a perfect 7-0 ATS for the year starting w/ ATL +10 in week 02.

Nate, any chance you listed two picks in a certain week? Or do you agree w/ the 7-0?

[degennn]

Green Bay ML

[Nate rasta]

8-8 ATS for the week, with GBay pending.

I have Nate Rasta recorded at a perfect 7-0 ATS for the year starting w/ ATL +10 in week 02.

Nate, any chance you listed two picks in a certain week? Or do you agree w/ the 7-0?

No I only did one pick a week.ya I didn't make a pick for week one. 7-0 it is