NFL week 08- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1st pick from USCPhillyGuy:

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Week 8. Ravens -1.5.

Grab it now

[agendaman]

my apology chucky to you and all the posters for for my 0-3 week.damm 49rs were up 10-0 and kinda fell apart.anyway back to the grindstone week 8.some sharp lines this week gents.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

my apology chucky to you and all the posters for for my 0-3 week.damm 49rs were up 10-0 and kinda fell apart.anyway back to the grindstone week 8.some sharp lines this week gents.

No apology necessary, Agenda. Happens to everyone, trust me.

Thought your Niner injury info was perfectly timed. +3 ticket when game goes off at PK. Can't beat that.

[Stallion]

Wash +4, Colts benched matt Ryan

[edawg]

Hate to say it have to go opposite of Uscphillyguy Bucs +1.5

[pologq]

Hate to say it have to go opposite of Uscphillyguy Bucs +1.5

i hate to say it too but i like the bucs +1.5. big difference for the bucs being 4-4 than losing and going to 3-5. they settle in and win this game. i am not impressed with the ravens and how they didn't cover yesterday.

[johnnyvegas13]

Bucs

brady never loses 3 in a row

[Nate rasta]

Ten Titans -1.5

They should be favored by 6
The line is way off on this one

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, guys! Will start the summary later tonite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, guys! Will start the summary later tonite.

Ya, the coaches hate these Thur games. Honestly, Thurs games should be banned. Bad TV, and injury risk.

In next collective bargaining agreement, scratch out Thurs games. Make compromise that every team has to play one foreign game in Eng/Germany every OTHER year. That's your extra time-slot, not Thurs (except for Thx-giving).

[pologq]

thanksgiving should be the only thurs games. it makes it mean something more.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bucs

brady never loses 3 in a row

Welcome to the thread, Johnny.

Thanks for posting. And Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS
YTD: 57-29 ATS (.663)
First losing week, after six straight winning weeks. Still north of 66% YTD.

Nate Rasta and edawg have been on absolute fire.
Thanks to all for contributing, and Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I've gone thru a few iterations of this. But these are basic ground-rules of the weekly thread:



I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Try to limit to one pick per week (although > one is ok).
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price.
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[pologq]

i am on the bucs like white on rice but if it loses i will make a 2nd pick this week

[edawg]

i am on the bucs like white on rice but if it loses i will make a 2nd pick this week

Me too like the Cleveland Clowns+3 on Halloween just as much.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wash +4, Colts benched matt Ryan

Thank you, Stallion. Putting you down.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks.

A lot of interest in the Thurs nite game. Tickets tilted 3-to-1 toward Bucs thus far.

101 Balt -1.5 (1x)...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)

267 Tenn -1.5
271 Wash +4

[agendaman]

two picks this week ok chucky.1st.-sf49rs . current odds at bet-on-line stand at -1 and -115.why 49rs.well if they lose their record will be 3-5 and their season may be over.run mccaffrey and play stout defense.2nd-steelers plus 10.5 at - 110.no detailed reasoning here.just a strong gut feeling.gl to all of us.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

two picks this week ok chucky.1st.-sf49rs . current odds at bet-on-line stand at -1 and -115.why 49rs.well if they lose their record will be 3-5 and their season may be over.run mccaffrey and play stout defense.2nd-steelers plus 10.5 at - 110.no detailed reasoning here.just a strong gut feeling.gl to all of us.

Thank you, Agenda. Putting your two picks down:

Summary of picks.

A lot of interest in the Thurs nite game. Tickets tilted 3-to-1 toward Bucs thus far.

101 Balt -1.5 (1x)...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)

259 Pitt +10.5
267 Tenn -1.5
271 Wash +4
273 San Fran -1.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, fav flips on Balt/Tampa game. Not sure I saw that coming.

Other notes:
*DEN: Looks like Wilson will play in the London game.
*MIA: I still question whether the HC pulled back the reins on Tua, based on prevention of further injury.
*New Orl: Dalton to start over HEALTHY Winston. Wow, after two pick-6's, how bad does Jameis look in practice?
*New Eng: Jones named starter for Jet game.
*Indy: How liquored up was Irsay to call for Sam to start? Funny thing is that the TIE might have been enough to get them into the playoffs. Division record won't be a tie-breaker unless there's another Tie in the division.

[TheRedZone]

Ten Titans -1.5

They should be favored by 6
The line is way off on this one

Tannehill out?

[TheRedZone]

I locked in Denver +2, Detroit +3 1/2, LA Rams +1

Sorry I know that's more than 1 per person. I'm on them all equally.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tannehill out?

Red, he's in a walking-boot. Will have to hear practice updates.

Tough-guy on a hard-nosed team. I'd have a hard time seeing him Active. I think "Willis" has been priced into the current line.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I locked in Denver +2, Detroit +3 1/2, LA Rams +1

Sorry I know that's more than 1 per person. I'm on them all equally.

Thanks, Red. Putting you down:

Summary of picks.

A lot of interest in the Thurs nite game. Tickets tilted 3-to-1 toward Bucs thus far.

101 Balt -1.5 (1x)...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)
251 Denver +2
259 Pitt +10.5
262 DET +3.5267 Tenn -1.5
271 Wash +4
273 San Fran -1.5...with 274 LARams +1

[jackpot269]

NYG +3
They keep winning and covering, finding a way even when they get out played! I think they will be the best team on the field and getting the 3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NYG +3
They keep winning and covering, finding a way even when they get out played! I think they will be the best team on the field and getting the 3

Thx, Jack:

Summary of picks.

101 Balt -1.5 (1x)...against 102 TBAY +1.5 (3x)
251 Denver +2
259 Pitt +10.5
262 DET +3.5
267 Tenn -1.5
269 NYG +3
271 Wash +4
273 San Fran -1.5...with 274 LARams +1

[edawg]

NYG +3
They keep winning and covering, finding a way even when they get out played! I think they will be the best team on the field and getting the 3

That and their head coach looks like a Tow Truck Driver.

[jjgold]

Bears

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice link for NFL practice information:

https://www.rotowire.com/football/practice-report.php?team=TEN

Says that Tannehill DNP (Did Not Practice/Participate??) in last practice. Ten/Hou line at -2.5, which is interesting.

You're either getting:
1) a banged-up Tannehill (age 34), or
2) 1st-time starter rookie from Liberty (Willis).

[jackpot269]

Nice link for NFL practice information:

https://www.rotowire.com/football/practice-report.php?team=TEN

Says that Tannehill DNP (Did Not Practice/Participate??) in last practice. Ten/Hou line at -2.5, which is interesting.

You're either getting:
1) a banged-up Tannehill (age 34), or
2) 1st-time starter rookie from Liberty (Willis).

Good info buddy thanks for the link!

[jackpot269]

Not a pick for the thread but that 2 points and Balt starting to look good! I may Wait til game time and keep an eye on it til then maybe get the hook!

[USCPHILLYGUY]

I cashed out the -120 on ravens and added the +115 for this game. I know the bucs might be able to run on Balt. but so many injuries on the O line. I still see a Ravens win

[agendaman]

who is lamarr going to throw to.bateman may be out plus t.e andrews leaving rookie duvenchy.this game totally puzzles me.

[michaellewis1098]

Bucs

brady never loses 3 in a row

ride with the bucs! let's go!