NFL week 07- Contrarian Angles

[TheLock]

Jaguars -3 -112

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jaguars -3 -112

Thx, Lock. And Good Luck:


Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5
470 SAN FRAN +3
475 Chi +7.5

[Tomatero]

Seahawks +200 ML /+5.5

The Seahawks have now shown they can win a low-scoring game, having held the Cardinals to 4.4 yards per play, and their ability to create turnovers (tied for fifth in the NFL) creates optimism about the defense. The Chargers' offense is no more explosive than Seattle's and their 4-2 record feels better than the season they've had. With minimal home-field advantage, Los Angeles is ripe to lose a shootout.

[KVB]

This thread produces some pretty good results

Chucky, I just came across this thread and I think that this could be the reason why
sports forums were meant to exist.

Thank you for initiating a worthwhile topic and inviting enthusiastic participation.

Yes, not bad stuff.

But not contrarian. Hasn't been since it started.

It's pretty clear very few get what contrarian means and I mentioned in another thread there are a few different classifications of contrarian.

The Lock is actually posting a play with JAX that isn't contrarian by base definition, but at the moment does meet some other definitions. I would consider his play the "sharp" one so far in the thread.

Everyone else is not thinking contrarian in this thread, they are thinking of plays they like.

What I don't get is why there isn't more push back from posters. Everyone just goes along with whatever play.

To this week's thread's credit, The RedZone in post 22 is making a valid and very real point.

But somehow we have Seahwks as a play in the thread. That should spark some discussion.

The winner this week, already counted, is Zona -1.5 yet nobody in this thread would be able to explain any market where that was a contrarian play.

So good thread, good plays, good results, but contrarian it is not.

This is my honest, professional, opinion and not based on any posters but based on the info posted, hopefully it is not taken personally by anyone.

[pologq]

for the hell of it i am adding chiefs -2 or -1.5 depending on the line you get now. everyone is on the 49ers with mccaffery. i will take the chiefs and mahomes against a banged up defense that they know from the super bowl.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

To avoid any confusion for the so called Contrarian Experts, let’s just call it weekly best bets

[Nate rasta]

for the hell of it i am adding chiefs -2 or -1.5 depending on the line you get now. everyone is on the 49ers with mccaffery. i will take the chiefs and mahomes against a banged up defense that they know from the super bowl.

I heard McCaffrey is only gonna have a couple snaps.maybe redzone package

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Seahawks +200 ML /+5.5

The Seahawks have now shown they can win a low-scoring game, having held the Cardinals to 4.4 yards per play, and their ability to create turnovers (tied for fifth in the NFL) creates optimism about the defense. The Chargers' offense is no more explosive than Seattle's and their 4-2 record feels better than the season they've had. With minimal home-field advantage, Los Angeles is ripe to lose a shootout.

Thank you, Tomatero. Gonna add your pick to the list.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

for the hell of it i am adding chiefs -2 or -1.5 depending on the line you get now. everyone is on the 49ers with mccaffery. i will take the chiefs and mahomes against a banged up defense that they know from the super bowl.

Thanks, Polo. Gonna add KC -2 to the list. If it lands 2 or 3, we wind up with a Push/Win (which works).

Per Nate's post below, makes sense that McCaff will have minimal impact THIS week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5

469 Kan City -2...with 470 SAN FRAN +3

471 Seattle +5.5
475 Chi +7.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5

469 Kan City -2...with 470 SAN FRAN +3

471 Seattle +5.5
475 Chi +7.5

Thanks to all for contributing. Looking forward to the games.

Just going off top of my head:
*USCPhillyGuy has won at least 3 straight.
*Lock has won 6 of 7.
*Nate has won at least 5 straight.
*edawg is working on a perfect 6-0 ATS. Hope the Bears get there for you.

[jackpot269]

San Fran is +2.5 -105 at Bovada

That D going to slow KC down enough for SF to squeak out the win!!

Jimmy G. GOING TO SPEARD IT AROUND TO ALL THE PLAY MAKERS!! AND HIS NEW ''WEAPON'' I assume he will play even if very limited

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, I'm going to add it, Jack. Good Luck!

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5

469 Kan City -2...with 470 SAN FRAN +2.5 and +3

471 Seattle +5.5
475 Chi +7.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack, thanks for contributing. Tell me this thread hasn't turned out to be a lot of fun.

Philly got us started w/ a nice Thurs cover. Chance to get to 7th straight winning week!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky please allow me 3 picks as i feel quite strongly re this trio.i will give reasons and lines are from bet-on-line.1st-49rs plus 3.latest report says both trent williams and david bosa will be back.49rs have a stout defense.bounce back for 9rs here.2nd-colts plus 2.5.m.ryan again plus pittman and j.taylor may play.3rd-detroit plus 7.5.i have never trusted dak prescott and never will.qb goff has his supporting cast back.wrs st.brown josh reynolds rb. jamal williams and t.e hockenson.love em all gents.i thank you and good luck.

Wanted to give a shout-out to Agenda here:

*I am declaring this thread a success, if for no other reason than the Niner info posted.

I know some of this was fortuitous w/ the trade for McCaff. Fact of the matter is that anyone who read this on TUES had a chance to get down on SF +3 in the next 12 hours. Current # trending toward Chiefs -1.

Anyone holding a +3 ticket is going to feel awfully good as that game goes to kickoff.

[jackpot269]

Jack, thanks for contributing. Tell me this thread hasn't turned out to be a lot of fun.

Philly got us started w/ a nice Thurs cover. Chance to get to 7th straight winning week!

Great idea, this Theard was/is, so far it has been a blast!! I rarely know early in the week who I'm taking, so I get here a little late most weeks!! It usually takes me to Thursday to get over the prior weekend and feel like caping!!

[agendaman]

just my .02 cents here gents.1st-i honestly believe the entire 17 game nfl season will strongly feature undedogs every week.2nd-i will never play the gbay packers.their body language says they are soft with little toughness any more.qb rogers is making 50 million/yr. and just does not care.3r how do jags open at -3 pts. over a team with a 5-1 record.gl to all of us this week.

[degennn]

Panthers +13.5

Pure contrarian play.

[jackpot269]

Yes, not bad stuff.

But not contrarian. Hasn't been since it started.

It's pretty clear very few get what contrarian means and I mentioned in another thread there are a few different classifications of contrarian.

The Lock is actually posting a play with JAX that isn't contrarian by base definition, but at the moment does meet some other definitions. I would consider his play the "sharp" one so far in the thread.

Everyone else is not thinking contrarian in this thread, they are thinking of plays they like.

What I don't get is why there isn't more push back from posters. Everyone just goes along with whatever play.

To this week's thread's credit, The RedZone in post 22 is making a valid and very real point.

But somehow we have Seahwks as a play in the thread. That should spark some discussion.

The winner this week, already counted, is Zona -1.5 yet nobody in this thread would be able to explain any market where that was a contrarian play.

So good thread, good plays, good results, but contrarian it is not.

This is my honest, professional, opinion and not based on any posters but based on the info posted, hopefully it is not taken personally by anyone.

KVB, I can't speak for anyone one else, I don't take it personal, but it's not my thread. I think the thread has been well defined by Chucky,
Im not a big baseball gambler but have tailed your plays many times, always liked the value of your picks, I rarely bet a fav in baseball and I noticed that your contrarian picks were almost always + odds!
I had no clue what that meant other than you were finding value in games that fit what I usually bet, I know you follow a strict process when you look for these picks (like a Sheldon Cooper). In this thread we are a little more (Penny) her maiden last name never given, or if you prefer, you are more Wilson, we are more(not really Tim) maybe Al Borland
Is this your definition also or do you have another?
con·trar·i·an

[kənˈtre(ə)rēən]




NOUN



a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion, especially in stock exchange dealing:

GL today

[TheLock]

Jaguars -3 -112

Jags are -3 -121 at bookmaker right now.

KVB, Browns +6.5 at Ravens seems contrarian to me. Curious your thoughts on its contrarianism.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lock, BTCL value = name of the game.

In this thread, we beat the move on Niners and JAX. Anyone who read this thread had a chance to get down on the "good" #. Getting the good # on your ticket is half the battle.

Thx and GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Panthers +13.5

Pure contrarian play.

Thank you, degenn. Gonna add it in right now.

On this particular game, the response after the trade was amazing. All the Fantasy FB players saw that McCaff accounted for > half their yards vs the Rams. Guess they'll be playing "10 on 11" today.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
462 CAROL +13.5
464 WASH +5.5

469 Kan City -2...with 470 SAN FRAN +3

471 Seattle +5.5
475 Chi +7.5

[degennn]

Jags are -3 -121 at bookmaker right now.

KVB, Browns +6.5 at Ravens seems contrarian to me. Curious your thoughts on its contrarianism.

Browns +6.5 is definitely contrarian.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks to all for contributing. I find this to be a useful thread for game preparation.

Always find a few interesting nuggets. Good Luck today!

[TheRedZone]

I'm gong with LAC -5. I've liked them all week as contrarian pick.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm gong with LAC -5. I've liked them all week as contrarian pick.

OK, thanks, Red. Putting you down:

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
462 CAROL +13.5
464 WASH +5.5

469 Kan City -2...with 470 SAN FRAN +2.5 and +3

471 Seattle +5.5...with 472 Chargers -5
475 Chi +7.5

[OldBill]

ok my top fade is steelrs take miami at home trending positive steelers just did the huge dd crossover from - 29 to +11.5 thats 40.5 points move neg to pos

DOLPHINS snap losing streak evry team when in miami south beach is like ahhhhhhhhhhhh

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ok my top fade is steelrs take miami at home trending positive steelers just did the huge dd crossover from - 29 to +11.5 thats 40.5 points move neg to pos

DOLPHINS snap losing streak evry team when in miami south beach is like ahhhhhhhhhhhh

OK, thanks, Bill! Always appreciate your insights.

Thanks for the contribution. Putting you down for MIA -7.5:


Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3 (2x)
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
462 CAROL +13.5
464 WASH +5.5

469 Kan City -2...with 470 SAN FRAN +2.5 and +3

471 Seattle +5.5...with 472 Chargers -5
474 MIAMI -7.5475 Chi +7.5

[TheLock]

How do the Jaguars not kick a FG there?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 458 CINCINNATI Bengals -6.

(Fading: Atlanta). Falcons are 6-0 ATS. Bettors have become very comfortable backing ATL.

They've exceeded expectations behind Mariota. Bettors now view them as bullet-proof. In particular, I'd question the win last week vs the Niners.

28-14 win. But did they beat the Niner A-team?

Niners were without two of the best trench players in the league:
*Off Tackle Trent Williams, who was rated #1 tackle last year.
*Def End Nick Bosa, who recorded 6 sacks in first five games. Was on his way toward DEF POY.

Bengals' three losses have all come late on opponent field goals. Feel like they're pretty close. Feel like the gulf in class is > 6 points.

I have to give props to JJ Gold. He said "34-17 type game."

[TheLock]

Jaguar coaching staff: “yeah, let’s not go up 7 points, let’s go for it on 4th and 1”

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looks like Niners will have Trent/Nick active:

49ERS

• TE Tyler Kroft
• DL Arik Armstead
• OL Nick Zakelj
• DL Kemoko Turay
• RB Jordan Mason
• CB Dontae Johnson

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Up-and-down week so far. Rooting for Dolphins/Bears on Sun/Mon nite. GL:

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5 W
451 Det +7L
454 JAX -3 (2x)LL
455 Indy +2.5L
458 CIN -6W
462 CAROL +13.5W
464 WASH +5.5W

469 Kan City -2W...with 470 SAN FRAN +2.5 and +3LL

471 Seattle +5.5W...with 472 Chargers -5L
474 MIAMI -7.5
475 Chi +7.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good try, Bill. Just didn't get there.

Appreciate you posting.