NFL week 07- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In the Week 06 thread, Red Zone asked a good question about the intention of this continuing thread. Here was my best response:

Originally Posted by TheRedZone

Was just trying to understand the thread. Can anyone post picks?

Yes, RedZone. Good question.

I'll start the thread for Week07 later tonite. The boys have been hitting well. I'd lay out the parameters as such:

1) Try to limit to one pick per week (although > one is ok).
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price.
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

USCPhillyGuy starts it off w/ an early bird pick:

USCPHILLYGUY HORSES MODERATOR

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Posts: 20,860
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If not getting this one done early.

Arizona -1.5 vs N. Orleans

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
YTD: 50-21 ATS (.704)
Six straight winning weeks. Still north of 70% YTD...so Stu Feiner (70%) is looking up at us.
Thanks, and Good Luck.

[edawg]

Da Bears +7.5

[pologq]

thanks for clarification chuck. i thought this was moreso about underdogs that we feel have value as they should not be dogs and/or are getting too many points.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

thanks for clarification chuck. i thought this was moreso about underdogs that we feel have value as they should not be dogs and/or are getting too many points.

Ya, Polo. Maybe I didn't spell it out. But the 50-21 works, right?

The picks might be SLANTED toward Dogs that are catching too many points. But the idea is really any side where you feel the public influence is tilting the # too far.

[Nate rasta]

Give me the Washington commanders +5.5

I think Tyler Heineken is an upgrade from garbage Wents. Maybe people think Green Bay is going to have a rebound game but I think Washington can win this outright.

[pologq]

Ya, Polo. Maybe I didn't spell it out. But the 50-21 works, right?

The picks might be SLANTED toward Dogs that are catching too many points. But the idea is really any side where you feel the public influence is tilting the # too far.

100% agree. some really good stuff in this thread each week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Give me the Washington commanders +5.5

I think Tyler Heineken is an upgrade from garbage Wents. Maybe people think Green Bay is going to have a rebound game but I think Washington can win this outright.

Thanks, Nate. And Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

100% agree. some really good stuff in this thread each week.

Ya, can't knock a winner. Hope to keep it rolling.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 458 CINCINNATI Bengals -6.

(Fading: Atlanta). Falcons are 6-0 ATS. Bettors have become very comfortable backing ATL.

They've exceeded expectations behind Mariota. Bettors now view them as bullet-proof. In particular, I'd question the win last week vs the Niners.

28-14 win. But did they beat the Niner A-team?

Niners were without two of the best trench players in the league:
*Off Tackle Trent Williams, who was rated #1 tackle last year.
*Def End Nick Bosa, who recorded 6 sacks in first five games. Was on his way toward DEF POY.

Bengals' three losses have all come late on opponent field goals. Feel like they're pretty close. Feel like the gulf in class is > 6 points.

[agendaman]

chucky please allow me 3 picks as i feel quite strongly re this trio.i will give reasons and lines are from bet-on-line.1st-49rs plus 3.latest report says both trent williams and david bosa will be back.49rs have a stout defense.bounce back for 9rs here.2nd-colts plus 2.5.m.ryan again plus pittman and j.taylor may play.3rd-detroit plus 7.5.i have never trusted dak prescott and never will.qb goff has his supporting cast back.wrs st.brown josh reynolds rb. jamal williams and t.e hockenson.love em all gents.i thank you and good luck.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Love the 9ers play as well

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky please allow me 3 picks as i feel quite strongly re this trio.i will give reasons and lines are from bet-on-line.1st-49rs plus 3.latest report says both trent williams and david bosa will be back.49rs have a stout defense.bounce back for 9rs here.2nd-colts plus 2.5.m.ryan again plus pittman and j.taylor may play.3rd-detroit plus 7.5.i have never trusted dak prescott and never will.qb goff has his supporting cast back.wrs st.brown josh reynolds rb. jamal williams and t.e hockenson.love em all gents.i thank you and good luck.

Agenda, no problem. Just a few comments:

1) Yes. You are spot-on re: Niners. I was close to picking them on the exact info you posted. Shanahan was quoted as saying the injuries look "much better this week." I thought +3 would look good if EITHER Trent or Nick was back. If BOTH are back, +3 is great...and that # is gonna move.

2) You got it on the Colts +2.5. Right at that sticky # that I call 2.75. They have become finesse, return of Taylor would help.

3) Gonna hold off on recording your Lion pick for a few reasons:
a) I heard Jones w/ the comment about Dak maybe playing this week. I'm not sure how much of that was just grabbing a headline. I haven't seen him upgraded to Probable on an injury rpt yet.
b) The line has not budged yet. Surely, if Dak is cleared to play, this # is gonna bump up. I don't see a full +7.5 (-110) yet.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of Week07 picks:
*Holding off on recording Agenda's 3rd pick, as I stated above:

304 ARIZ -1.5
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5
470 SAN FRAN +3
475 Chi +7.5

[agendaman]

chucky i just went back to sportsbk. bet-on-line.detroit stands at a full 7.5 pts.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky i just went back to sportsbk. bet-on-line.detroit stands at a full 7.5 pts.

If it's -119, that's too far off. Would have to use +7.

[TheRedZone]

Is there a cutoff day for a posted pic?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Is there a cutoff day for a posted pic?

Not really, Red. Just whenever you're comfortable. No presssure.

In practice, good to give a little lead time. For NFL, we start to see practice Injury news released on Thur/FRI. We also see public sentiment around then, so I'd say that FRI is a good cutoff.

Another thing about NFL betting that is a truism. Player news leaks during the week, and market lines respond. #s harden up on Friday, people watch CollFB on SAT...and the SUN morning lines are usually tight as a drum.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What do you make of the Russell Wilson's injury?

If Brett Rypien starts...is there a chance DENV goes off as Home Dog on Sunday?

[TheRedZone]

Not really, Red. Just whenever you're comfortable. No presssure.

In practice, good to give a little lead time. For NFL, we start to see practice Injury news released on Thur/FRI. We also see public sentiment around then, so I'd say that FRI is a good cutoff.

Another thing about NFL betting that is a truism. Player news leaks during the week, and market lines respond. #s harden up on Friday, people watch CollFB on SAT...and the SUN morning lines are usually tight as a drum.

Ok thank you for the great info.

[TheRedZone]

Any opinion on the LA Chargers. Seattle looks so far too be a big public play but catching almost a TD

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Any opinion on the LA Chargers. Seattle looks so far too be a big public play but catching almost a TD

Red, the oddsmaker (on average) is so good nowadays. So many #s look like good two-way lines. And I'd say that's the case for that game:
*SEA: have looked good w/ Geno playing better than anyone expected.
*Charg: have the better roster. Dealt with injuries, still have some key guys out. Something lacking, they don't look dominant.

The books love these games where the bettor can easily make an argument for either side.

[pologq]

i like the Jags -3. i think the giants are a good team but this is a bad spot. the jags will stop the run and force jones to pass which is not what the giants want to do. also pederson knows jones and the giants from when he coached the eagles.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i like the Jags -3. i think the giants are a good team but this is a bad spot. the jags will stop the run and force jones to pass which is not what the giants want to do. also pederson knows jones and the giants from when he coached the eagles.

Thanks for posting, Polo! I like it. I'd be very leery of backing the Giants this week.

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5
454 JAX -3
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5
470 SAN FRAN +3
475 Chi +7.5

[jjgold]

This thread produces some pretty good results

[StackinGreen]

i like the Jags -3. i think the giants are a good team but this is a bad spot. the jags will stop the run and force jones to pass which is not what the giants want to do. also pederson knows jones and the giants from when he coached the eagles.

Yes, sounds good. Mean reversion for a few hot weeks/spots for the NYG, now on the road.

[CJ]

Lions +7 looks good, too many points for a Detroit team that just spent their bye week getting healthy. Plus an extra week of hearing they suck after getting demolished at Foxboro.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lions +7 looks good, too many points for a Detroit team that just spent their bye week getting healthy. Plus an extra week of hearing they suck after getting demolished at Foxboro.

Thank you, CJ. I'm putting you down:

Summary of Week07 picks:

304 ARIZ -1.5
451 Det +7
454 JAX -3
455 Indy +2.5
458 CIN -6
464 WASH +5.5
470 SAN FRAN +3
475 Chi +7.5

[Stallion]

Jax -3 is a big question mark for me. Jags, Indy and Washington have the best chance to upset.

[19th Hole]

Chucky, I just came across this thread and I think that this could be the reason why
sports forums were meant to exist.

Thank you for initiating a worthwhile topic and inviting enthusiastic participation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, I just came across this thread and I think that this could be the reason why
sports forums were meant to exist.

Thank you for initiating a worthwhile topic and inviting enthusiastic participation.

Thank you, 19th!

Yes, I always liked shooting the bull on this forum. Trying to revive SBR forum.

Been getting good weekly input. And the results have been good so far, knock on wood.

[TheRedZone]

Nice call on Arizona

[TheRedZone]

Red, the oddsmaker (on average) is so good nowadays. So many #s look like good two-way lines. And I'd say that's the case for that game:
*SEA: have looked good w/ Geno playing better than anyone expected.
*Charg: have the better roster. Dealt with injuries, still have some key guys out. Something lacking, they don't look dominant.

The books love these games where the bettor can easily make an argument for either side.

I'm liking LAC more now that the line is down to 5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

USCPhillyGuy starts it off w/ an early bird pick:

USCPHILLYGUY HORSES MODERATOR

SBR PRO Join Date: 12-15-12
Posts: 20,860
Betpoints: 16058

Message Me

If not getting this one done early.

Arizona -1.5 vs N. Orleans

Nice hit, Philly.

Hey, guys. Did you see Philly give Dalton the c-note handshake on his way out of the stadium?