NFL week 05- Contrarian Angles

[Nate rasta]

Guy starts a pretty good contrarian thread an now have guys putting in their square best bets for some reason

That's true I think we're getting a little off track with the original post. But there is a thin line to what's contrarian and what's not. People want to post their best pick for the week but yeah let's try to keep it contrarian

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That's true I think we're getting a little off track with the original post. But there is a thin line to what's contrarian and what's not. People want to post their best pick for the week but yeah let's try to keep it contrarian

Very true, Nate. It's a fine line.

Not like these picks are obvious, one way or the other. GL, have a great week.

[jjgold]

Seattle Seattle Seattle

Everyone fading them saying they have no defense

[jackpot269]

Dallas +5.5
You can get Dallas at 5.5 now

The Rams Offensive has nothing going deep for a few reason Stafford's ave death of target is 6.8yds 27th in the league last year he was 6th in the league
Some think his elbow is still a problem but he has shown good velocity on some throws, the O line has not given him much time, they didn't score a TD last week against a very good SF defense No deep threat allows the D TO FOCUS ON CUPP.
NO break this week as Dallas has a good D also only allowing 4.8yds per pass attempt tied for best in the league.
Dallas Offence has BEEN fine with Dak out, RUSH has done a fine job

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Dallas +5.5
You can get Dallas at 5.5 now

The Rams Offensive has nothing going deep for a few reason Stafford's ave death of target is 6.8yds 27th in the league last year he was 6th in the league
Some think his elbow is still a problem but he has shown good velocity on some throws, the O line has not given him much time, they didn't score a TD last week against a very good SF defense No deep threat allows the D TO FOCUS ON CUPP.
NO break this week as Dallas has a good D also only allowing 4.8yds per pass attempt tied for best in the league.
Dallas Offence has BEEN fine with Dak out, RUSH has done a fine job

Rams oline has looked like swiss cheese...Whitworth retiring was a huge loss.

Cowboy's pass rush might wreak havoc...

[jackpot269]

Rams oline has looked like swiss cheese...Whitworth retiring was a huge loss.

Cowboy's pass rush might wreak havoc...

I RARLY take Dallas, it seems they are overvalued more than any other team in NFL but look like good value this week!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dallas +5.5
You can get Dallas at 5.5 now

The Rams Offensive has nothing going deep for a few reason Stafford's ave death of target is 6.8yds 27th in the league last year he was 6th in the league
Some think his elbow is still a problem but he has shown good velocity on some throws, the O line has not given him much time, they didn't score a TD last week against a very good SF defense No deep threat allows the D TO FOCUS ON CUPP.
NO break this week as Dallas has a good D also only allowing 4.8yds per pass attempt tied for best in the league.
Dallas Offence has BEEN fine with Dak out, RUSH has done a fine job

Thx, Jack. Good info, Good Luck with the 'boys.

Summary of picks:
452 GBay -8
453 Sea +6
455 Hou +7

459 Atl +8.5
468 CLEV +3
472 CAROL +6.5...JJ's old lady?

474 ARIZ +5.5 (3x): gonna grade all three at +5.5.

475 Dall +4.5...with +5.5.
Total: SF/Car UND 39

[jackpot269]

Hey Chucky, thx again for this thread, I know some of the posters wanted straight contrarian partly because of title, but you cant argue with the results so far!!

Guys like you and me are results oriented, show us the money!!

GL Pal

[consom888]

Redskins +2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey Chucky, thx again for this thread, I know some of the posters wanted straight contrarian partly because of title, but you cant argue with the results so far!!

Guys like you and me are results oriented, show us the money!!

GL Pal

Ya, Jack. Can't argue w/ Dead Presidents.

I've said a few times that my thread title might be a bit of a misnomer. "Best Bets" work every time.

Thx, consom. Yes, indeed, Skins qualify. Very hard team to back, fans calling for Wentz to get the hook.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Redskins +2

Summary of picks:
452 GBay -8
453 Sea +6
455 Hou +7

459 Atl +8.5
464 WASH +2 468 CLEV +3
472 CAROL +6.5

474 ARIZ +5.5 (3x): gonna grade all three at +5.5.

475 Dall +4.5...with +5.5.
Total: SF/Car UND 39

...My favorite Redskin memory. OK, one of several:

*Morning of NFC Championship Game, Dall at Wash.

John Riggins is walking into the locker room. Runs into Off Line coach Joe Bugel. Riggins could chirp w/ the best of em:
"Gimme the ball, Buges. Gimme the ball. Tell Gibbsy I want the ball today. There are gonna be 80,000 people in the stands. And they came to see me."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Oh, funny anecdote re: Dall HC McCarthy:

*Reported asked him if he would use the Cowboy underdog status as motivation this week.

(Paraphrasing) McCarthy said that he's never used the "line" as a source of motivation. Then McCarthy (honestly) asked what the # was. He said "Who's favored? You're saying we're the dog? Well, you just wrote my Saturday nite speech for the team."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's my logic on this game:

1) Giants look like a phony 3-1 to me.
2) Packers did play the opener w/ both Off Tackles out. Healthier unit now, more cohesive after loss at MINN.

Rodgers threw (only) 4th pick-6 of his career last week. That contributed to making it a choppy game that was less than impressive.

I view this bet as a one-way line b/c of the Giant QB injuries:
*If we go to post at -8 vs Jones...I'm fine with it.
*I think Daboll is being coy. I expect Jones to be ruled out. If the Giants have any playoff chances, they need Jones for the stretch run.
*If it's versus Taylor and Giant backup QBs, line goes to 10+.

Wanted to get ahead of the injury info. Good Luck. Go, Pack.

I grade myself a D on this play. Was hoping for 2pts BTCL value. Jones looks good to go, going to have to beat the Giants on the field.

[edawg]

Summary of picks:
452 GBay -8
453 Sea +6
455 Hou +7

459 Atl +8.5
464 WASH +2 468 CLEV +3
472 CAROL +6.5

474 ARIZ +5.5 (3x): gonna grade all three at +5.5.

475 Dall +4.5...with +5.5.
Total: SF/Car UND 39

...My favorite Redskin memory. OK, one of several:

*Morning of NFC Championship Game, Dall at Wash.

John Riggins is walking into the locker room. Runs into Off Line coach Joe Bugel. Riggins could chirp w/ the best of em:
"Gimme the ball, Buges. Gimme the ball. Tell Gibbsy I want the ball today. There are gonna be 80,000 people in the stands. And they came to see me."

Crank up that Diesel behind The Hogs!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Crank up that Diesel behind The Hogs!

Go to 0:20

Damn, blocked. Go to Youtube..."redskins, cmon diesel"

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack and others:

*Thanks again for the support in here.

Nate, Polo, edawg, and TheLock have been on fire. Here's hoping for another big week.

I really started this thread as being a way to view these games with an open mind. NFL is the one sport where (most) everyone thinks they know something. A little knowledge can be dangerous.

Good Luck. Hope everyone hits.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Steve Merril teased that his NFL video will reveal the most public side of the year. In other words, he's saying that the public action on this side can't help but tilt the line (too far).

Any guesses as to what that side might be? I have one team in mind.

[OldBill]

yes the panthers game is slated for 4 pm start so 49ers body clock will be on 1 pm thier time

[OldBill]

using my crossover system fade the chargers @ Browns b 2 b roads further east played central last at hou


Fading Titans also went from neg -24 to + 3.5 and up again +10.5 ATS wo wash only a 2.5 home dog but -115 price

also hammer time cards +5.5 vs my Eagles only 1 quailty team beat last 4 that was vikings

[ChuckyTheGoat]

using my crossover system fade the chargers @ Browns b 2 b roads further east played central last at hou


Fading Titans also went from neg -24 to + 3.5 and up again +10.5 ATS wo wash only a 2.5 home dog but -115 price

also hammer time cards +5.5 vs my Eagles only 1 quailty team beat last 4 that was vikings

Bill...nice angle last week! Do you want me to put you down for all 3 plays? Would prefer that you select one TOP play, thanks.

[MiDNiTe]

Jags better not screw me again this week as I think they should hammer one of the shittest NFL teams, jags -7 and jags/jags ht/ft, also agreed with you chuck Cardinals +5.5 and cowboys +5.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

using my crossover system fade the chargers @ Browns b 2 b roads further east played central last at hou


Fading Titans also went from neg -24 to + 3.5 and up again +10.5 ATS wo wash only a 2.5 home dog but -115 price

also hammer time cards +5.5 vs my Eagles only 1 quailty team beat last 4 that was vikings

Billy...I might be half-baked, but your info is very good (to be honest). I'm gonna put you down for Browns +1.5 (1st pick).

a) I actually do understand your point. Cumulative travel. If the Chargers went LA to Hou...Hou to LA...and now longer trip LA to Clev, that's a lot of hours in a plane. Maybe 12 hours over 8 days.

b) # has moved. Wash now closer to PK.

c) Yes, Cards have been a popular pick in here. Wish us all some luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jags better not screw me again this week as I think they should hammer one of the shittest NFL teams, jags -7 and jags/jags ht/ft, also agreed with you chuck Cardinals +5.5 and cowboys +5.5

Midnite, thank you. Gonna put you down on the Jags.

Hou/Jax is a tough game to dissect. I think most view JAX as having the better roster but they have to perform.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding the picks from Bill and Midnite. This should be the final summary b4 London game. Good Luck, boys:

Summary of picks:
452 GBay -8
453 Sea +6
Hou/Jax: cancel out. Mixed action.

459 Atl +8.5
464 WASH +2

468 CLEV +3...with +1.5
472 CAROL +6.5

474 ARIZ +5.5 (3x): gonna grade all three at +5.5.

475 Dall +4.5...with +5.5.
Total: SF/Car UND 39

[TheLock]

Guy starts a pretty good contrarian thread an now have guys putting in their square best bets for some reason

This is exactly what I was thinking as I was reading this weeks thread.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is exactly what I was thinking as I was reading this weeks thread.

Lock, you have any plays today? You've been on fire.

[TheLock]

As far as “value” goes, guys……

If a side looks like it has very good “value”, it’s not contrarian.

Let’s keep this a contrarian pick thread. There are plenty of other threads where you can talk about your best bets or value plays.

[TheLock]

Lock, you have any plays today? You've been on fire.

Mornin, Chucky.

I’ve narrowed it down to either Packers -8 and Bills -14. I’ll decide in the next 10 minutes or so.

If the Texans go from +7 to +6.5, that will be my contrarian play of the day.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As far as “value” goes, guys……

If a side looks like it has very good “value”, it’s not contrarian.

Let’s keep this a contrarian pick thread. There are plenty of other threads where you can talk about your best bets or value plays.

Good post, Lock. Solid post.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Mornin, Chucky.

I’ve narrowed it down to either Packers -8 and Bills -14. I’ll decide in the next 10 minutes or so.

If the Texans go from +7 to +6.5, that will be my contrarian play of the day.

Salud, Lock. I do think it's interesting to think about what how the modern bettor views a game.

[TheLock]

If the Texans go from +7 to +6.5, that will be my contrarian play of the day.

As a follow up to this, I just saw that someone started a thread calling the Jags the “easiest NFL bet of the day”.

When I see stuff like that, it makes me like (potentially) being on the other side even more.

[MiDNiTe]

As a follow up to this, I just saw that someone started a thread calling the Jags the “easiest NFL bet of the day”.

When I see stuff like that, it makes me like (potentially) being on the other side even more.

Lol the reason I love jags even more is because of all the people on Texans like you

[TheLock]

Lol the reason I love jags even more is because of all the people on Texans like you

As stated, I’ll only play the Texans if the number goes to 6.5

[MiDNiTe]

Guy talks shit and then says he hasn't taken bet yet, take it you pussy then we'll see who's right after the game instead of hiding until match is over then acting like the best gambler in the world after game is finished

[TheLock]

Guy talks shit and then says he hasn't taken bet yet, take it you pussy then we'll see who's right after the game instead of hiding until match is over then acting like the best gambler in the world after game is finished

You sound very angry. I’m not angry so this doesn’t have great SBR battle potential. As I said clearly, I will be on the Texans if the number goes to 6.5 and I will not be on the Texans if it stays at 7.

Good luck on your play.