NFL week 05- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

USC, fresh off a win starts it off:

Chucky I’m already starting the week 5 thread!

Arizona +5.5

[edawg]

Cleveland +3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cleveland +3

Good Luck, dawg. Keep it goin.

[jjgold]

Giants +8

[Nate rasta]

Sorry wrong thread

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My play = 452 Green Bay -8. Neutral-site game, writeup to follow.

[raiders72001]

My play = 452 Green Bay -8. Neutral-site game, writeup to follow.

nice teaser leg.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I like Arizona+5 as well, Chuckwagon

[pologq]

Add me as a 3rd liking the Cardinals getting +5.5

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Jalen Hurts on Manning Cast last night Not a good sign

[agendaman]

i love seattle plus 6.geno smith lockett netcalfe.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Jalen Hurts on Manning Cast last night Not a good sign

Hard not to root for Hurts with how he carries himself and the way he handled everything at Alabama

Guy does not complain, he puts his head down and works

[pologq]

i love seattle plus 6.geno smith lockett netcalfe.

it does seem like a lot of points given the saints play and injuries

[Easy-Rider 66]

it does seem like a lot of points given the saints play and injuries

NO 1-3 they should win covering the number a horse of another color

[Pigpen]

Houston +7 (-105) on all of my local apps. The Jags have become the darling of the NFL this year. Holding my nose and taking the TD here. This is the true definition of a contrarian play IMO. Good luck gang!!!

[pologq]

NO 1-3 they should win covering the number a horse of another color

i am not crazy about their offense with thomas and kamara out. let's see what happens. not a play for me right now.

[pologq]

Houston +7 (-105) on all of my local apps. The Jags have become the darling of the NFL this year. Holding my nose and taking the TD here. This is the true definition of a contrarian play IMO. Good luck gang!!!

this does fit. good luck. not sure i can pull the trigger on this. be interesting if it comes off of the 7.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks for posting, Jake and Polo. Go, Cards.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i love seattle plus 6.geno smith lockett netcalfe.

Thx, Agenda. Sea +6.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Houston +7 (-105) on all of my local apps. The Jags have become the darling of the NFL this year. Holding my nose and taking the TD here. This is the true definition of a contrarian play IMO. Good luck gang!!!

Thx, Pig. GL on HOU.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nate's Niners pick gets home. That pushed the week into the profit zone. > 55% ATS four weeks running.

*Some good Total info last week. So, Totals are fair game. The Dead Presidents are still green, so they spend just as well.
wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.

wk04: 10-8 ATS
YTD: 35-11 ATS (.761)

Will continue to try this. Thanks, and Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My play = 452 Green Bay -8. Neutral-site game, writeup to follow.

Here's my logic on this game:

1) Giants look like a phony 3-1 to me.
2) Packers did play the opener w/ both Off Tackles out. Healthier unit now, more cohesive after loss at MINN.

Rodgers threw (only) 4th pick-6 of his career last week. That contributed to making it a choppy game that was less than impressive.

I view this bet as a one-way line b/c of the Giant QB injuries:
*If we go to post at -8 vs Jones...I'm fine with it.
*I think Daboll is being coy. I expect Jones to be ruled out. If the Giants have any playoff chances, they need Jones for the stretch run.
*If it's versus Taylor and Giant backup QBs, line goes to 10+.

Wanted to get ahead of the injury info. Good Luck. Go, Pack.

[pologq]

I like the Packers as well. The Giants might be the worst 3-1 team right now. Not a contrarian pick for me though.

I like the Panthers +6.5 at home against 49ers. They have a good record against the 49ers and catching them off a big division win on a short week.

[johnnyvegas13]

I like the Packers as well. The Giants might be the worst 3-1 team right now. Not a contrarian pick for me though.

I like the Panthers +6.5 at home against 49ers. They have a good record against the 49ers and catching them off a big division win on a short week.

Agree fluke week one win is all giants really have done

[OldBill]

I like the Packers as well. The Giants might be the worst 3-1 team right now. Not a contrarian pick for me though.

I like the Panthers +6.5 at home against 49ers. They have a good record against the 49ers and catching them off a big division win on a short week.

yup but that fawk Mayfield got crap beat out of him by Cardinals any way both games are non div Panthers then @ Falcons

but 49ers will stay over in East as they have done before most teams do be stupid as shit to travel back 3000 miles them come back next week 2500 more

[Enkhbat]

49ers vs Panthers under 39. Carolina has really good D and no offense. I hope poor Baker Mayfield doesn't get killed out there. A field position game that 49ers will eventually run away with late. Both offenses will be dink and dunk.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks for the contributions.

Gonna start summarizing this:

452 GBay -8
453 Sea +6
455 Hou +7
468 CLEV +3
472 CAROL +6.5...JJ's old lady?

474 ARIZ +5.5 (3x): gonna grade all three at +5.5.
Total: SF/Car UND 39

[klemopixx]

Falcons +8.5

This Buccaneers squad is sleepwalking through this season. 8.5 is just too much against a scrappy Atlanta team.

[Nate rasta]

Dallas+4.5

Dallas fans from L.A. are gonna take over that stadium. Rams o-line is beat up against a good Dallas front.dallas offense stays hot I think.they could win outright

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dallas+4.5

Dallas fans from L.A. are gonna take over that stadium. Rams o-line is beat up against a good Dallas front.dallas offense stays hot I think.they could win outright

GL, nate. Hope you keep the hot-streak going.

[Nate rasta]

Thanks

[stake1]

solid thread here

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gonna post a few thoughts that come to me today. Been some healthy discussion in these threads L2 weeks with guys like Stackin Green and Money Shot. My basic philosophy on NFL betting:

*There should be an edge to your bet. If your bet is based on A>B, gonna have a tough time winning long-term. If you can figure out a process to generate picks counter-intuitively, that's great. If you can identify a hamburger likes to talk...better yet. Hang on to that guy, if he's a solid fade.

On the GB game, I just think the Giants look too fat for their 3-1 record. Are they that good?

If Jones starts, I think GB can win by 10. If Jones doesn't start, I think GB win by 13.

I do think a lot of NFL lines are set perfectly. Very murky, where an argument can be made for either side. Take Hou/Jax, for example. HOU has won L4 trips to Jacksonville:

*If you like HOu, you think they can keep it to 4.
*If you're sold on Jax, you see them winning by 10.

Don't kid yourself about big edges. 2 to 3pts is all we're looking for. Anything more than that is not real.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

452 GBay -8
453 Sea +6
455 Hou +7

459 Atl +8.5
468 CLEV +3
472 CAROL +6.5...JJ's old lady?

474 ARIZ +5.5 (3x): gonna grade all three at +5.5.

475 Dall +4.5
Total: SF/Car UND 39

[Thor4140]

Guy starts a pretty good contrarian thread an now have guys putting in their square best bets for some reason