NFL week 04- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, movin. Putting you down for Chi Bears. Thx for posting:

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[MiDNiTe]

Really like jags +6.5, excellent defence and TLaw starting to look good under a decent coach, should be a good match against a firing eagles tram

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Really like jags +6.5, excellent defence and TLaw starting to look good under a decent coach, should be a good match against a firing eagles tram

Thanks, midnite. Marking you down as a 2nd guy on Jags. Good Luck!

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5 (2x)
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[peacebyinches]

Buffalo at Baltimore UNDER 51

If this was played in a dome or in good conditions sign me up for a shootout but I can't believe this game's total is still so high (highest projected total this week I believe). According to rotowire:

"Steady rain will likely lead to poor field conditions for Sunday afternoon’s game at M&T Bank Stadium. Strong, gusty winds blowing from sideline to sideline will also make passing and kicking difficult."

This total is one of those "am I missing something?" type of lines but I see an increased workload for Buffalo's running backs and maybe **caution: hot take that I'll likely regret incoming...** Justin Tucker struggling or not even getting the opportunity to try longer FGs given the conditions. Are both secondaries banged up beyond all recognition (aka BUBAR, aka term I just made up)? Are both offenses way better than both defenses? Am I galaxy braining this pick in a desperate attempt to find a solid edge this week? Yes, yes and probably, but I see a much quicker game with the clock being chewed up by a very run heavy Ravens team and a Bills team that might still be suffering from heat stroke after that surprisingly hot game in Miami last week.

If this pick goes wrong it'll be the secondaries giving up stupidly big plays, maybe even because of the wet and windy conditions... but sign me up for the UNDER on an otherwise high total in weather conditions not conducive for long passes or FGs.

[Easy-Rider 66]

thx for the info Peace will change some things based on your info

[MiDNiTe]

Thanks, midnite. Marking you down as a 2nd guy on Jags. Good Luck!

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5 (2x)
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

Thanks chucky, gl to all your bets too, taking Arizona +1.5 and raiders -2.5

[MiDNiTe]

Yeah nice info peace, hate betting totals but now will be interested in checking the scores of that gane

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very good info, Peace. Looks like weather could impact the game:

https://www.wgrz.com/article/weather/ian-remnants-impact-buffalo-bills-game-baltimore-ravens-sunday-nfl/71-b60dddbd-b838-4176-8d83-e22d602194f5

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47

Buff/Balt UND 51
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5 (2x)
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[klemopixx]

Commanders +3.5 at Dallas

I expected this line to be bigger but you can never tell what happens in an NFC East division game.
I have to think Rivera knows Wentz is a sitting duck back there for that Dallas pass rush. If he runs the ball and throws enough screens and jet sweeps they could counter that rush. Washington defense is good enough to make this a game. Something just isn't right here.

[lakerboy]

Commanders +3.5 at Dallas

I expected this line to be bigger but you can never tell what happens in an NFC East division game.
I have to think Rivera knows Wentz is a sitting duck back there for that Dallas pass rush. If he runs the ball and throws enough screens and jet sweeps they could counter that rush. Washington defense is good enough to make this a game. Something just isn't right here.

Why would the line be bigger? Dallas qb is garbage.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Why would the line be bigger? Dallas qb is garbage.

so is Wentz?

[lakerboy]

so is Wentz?

Yes but the line is fine. Dallas can't do anything without dak.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Commanders +3.5 at Dallas

I expected this line to be bigger but you can never tell what happens in an NFC East division game.
I have to think Rivera knows Wentz is a sitting duck back there for that Dallas pass rush. If he runs the ball and throws enough screens and jet sweeps they could counter that rush. Washington defense is good enough to make this a game. Something just isn't right here.

Thank you, Klemo, GL. Agree that the pts have a good chance to play here.

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47

Buff/Balt UND 51
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5 (2x)

Wash +3.5
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yes but the line is fine. Dallas can't do anything without dak.

Laker, got a question for you:

*Does return of QB ZWilson matter at all for the Jets?

Line reaction was almost lateral for Flacco to ZWilson. At Flacco's age, not sure that's accurate.

[kaliboyz]

Carolina Panthers PK for me today.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Carolina Panthers PK for me today.

Thank you, Kali, GL. Should be a fun day of games.
(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Buff/Balt UND 51


Raiders -2 (2x)
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5 (2x)
CAROL (pk)
Wash +3.5
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[TheLock]

Raiders -2.5 -110

[lakerboy]

Laker, got a question for you:

*Does return of QB ZWilson matter at all for the Jets?

Line reaction was almost lateral for Flacco to ZWilson. At Flacco's age, not sure that's accurate.

No it won't matter because they both stink

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raiders -2.5 -110

Thx, Lock. Hope we get there:

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Buff/Balt UND 51


Raiders -2 (2x)...with -2.5
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5 (2x)
CAROL (pk)
Wash +3.5
Chi+3
Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[Tomatero]

NYJets +3.5, i dont be suprise if jets win SU

Jets SU ✅

[pologq]

and with this i am leaning falcons to pull out a win at home

i am still surprised falcons pulled this off

[pologq]

titans +3. i got no faith in the colts. colts should have lost that game last week and still look crappy to me. the chiefs lost that game more than the colts won.

colts really blow

taylor is nothing like last year

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Mixed bag on the early games:

*The total plays sweep. Very nice info.

*Props to Polo and edawg. Each guy wins their play. Makes each 4-0 ATS, one winner each wk. Awesome!

[pologq]

there is value now cause the books are still treating teams with preseason hype. once it adjusts it will be tougher.

[peacebyinches]

Was a little worried about that Baltimore/Buffalo under after that quick start but the weather really factored in during the second half. Glad we hit that one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Was a little worried about that Baltimore/Buffalo under after that quick start but the weather really factored in during the second half. Glad we hit that one.

Yes, very good info in your post. Nice winner.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raiders get there, win by 9. Props to The Lock...who has won 6 straight (I believe).

[jackpot269]

Chucky this could be the thread of the year!!!! YOU ARE THE MAN!! Well maybe a little premature but WHAT A GREAT START!!!

[TheMoneyShot]

I definitely like Chucky's thread... the only thing I question... when we say Contrarian... how do we truly know what the force of the public is was on?

For example... Denver VS Las Vegas... I believe the line opened at Las Vegas -2. At game time it was -2.5 and some shops offered -3 +100 This was a MUST WIN game for Las Vegas early in the year. To say everyone was on Denver... I'd say you're full of sh##.

I would say this is a rare case in which the Contrarian Angle wouldn't work.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Chucky I’m already starting the week 5 thread!

Arizona +5.5

[TheMoneyShot]

I tend to take Dogs a lot... but the games that stood out to me... from vibes alone...

Philadelphia -6.5
N.Y. Giants -3
Dallas -3
Las Vegas -2.5

Glad I stayed away... those games were just too tough to call from an underdog point of view. Philadelphia is one strong MF'ing team. Jacksonville is young/talented... but not proven in all stages of a game. Chicago played like crap on the road. Giants showed up after that sh## performance against Dallas a week ago. Las Vegas... Must Win Situation. And Washington is just pure sh## with Carson Wentz. I don't think the team believes in him at all.

[MiDNiTe]

Thanks chucky, gl to all your bets too, taking Arizona +1.5 and raiders -2.5

Zona, raiders and buffalo saved me from bad bet on jags, wtf TLaw with his awful turnovers

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky this could be the thread of the year!!!! YOU ARE THE MAN!! Well maybe a little premature but WHAT A GREAT START!!!

Thank you, Jack! Trying, my man.

Maybe premature. Nowadays, I'm just happy to get there at all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky I’m already starting the week 5 thread!

Arizona +5.5

Good start, USC!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I definitely like Chucky's thread... the only thing I question... when we say Contrarian... how do we truly know what the force of the public is was on?

For example... Denver VS Las Vegas... I believe the line opened at Las Vegas -2. At game time it was -2.5 and some shops offered -3 +100 This was a MUST WIN game for Las Vegas early in the year. To say everyone was on Denver... I'd say you're full of sh##.

I would say this is a rare case in which the Contrarian Angle wouldn't work.

It's a good question, Shot. I'd say a lot of the modern lines do a good job of generating two-way action.

Title of the thread might be a misnomer. It's all about the Dead Presidents. In my experience, the most obvious NFL play is a side that is going to have a tough time cashing.

You are right about these NFL lines. I saw a guy say that Miami was a public dog at CINN. Really? Looked like everyone was on CINN to me. Guess he's talking about a Sharp/Square split.

Sorry for rambling. Yes, wish I had a better way to precisely measure Public Sentiment. You used to see some of that on Office Pool stats.