NFL week 04- Contrarian Angles

[Nate rasta]

Trent Williams our big tho

Trent Williams was out last year when they beat them at home

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Trent Williams was out last year when they beat them at home

Nate, gonna put you down for Niners -2.

Current # that I see. GL, we'll see how it plays out.

[comet52]

I don't follow injuries like I used to. Was listening to my guy Gridiron Blitz (a Lion fan):

S Walker out
RB Swift ??

Walker out for the season, but not feeling like a S is worth 2 points on a line.

[Nate rasta]

Nate, gonna put you down for Niners -2.

Current # that I see. GL, we'll see how it plays out.

Ok I'm 3-0 so far on these contrarian pics, let's see how it go. I'm going to put some money to the side for this and roll it over every week see if I can go 16 and 0 LOL

[Nate rasta]

^^^^ scratch that ,I'm gonna try and go 10-0.$100 to win $60,000 if I roll it over every week

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ok I'm 3-0 so far on these contrarian pics, let's see how it go. I'm going to put some money to the side for this and roll it over every week see if I can go 16 and 0 LOL

Haha, I'll be pulling for you. I knew that edawg and Polo were 3-0. Didn't realize you were 3-0, too.

Ya, we can only be optimistic. Would be nice to roll over a portion of our retirement fund on these picks. Good Luck.

[Nate rasta]

I'LL call it the 10 team contrarian parlay. If I hit this I'll send you some money for giving me this idea, thanks goat

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great thread Goat

Mach, you should post a play in here. Almost pumpkin season again!

[OldBill]

not sure but last year it was 100% and like for years past rookie HC's from college are losing thier 1st prime time games so Chucky we go all in on Bengals at home vs Dolphins

[Nate rasta]

He's not from college

[MovinUnits]

Miami +4 over Cincy.

Miami has had a shine I can’t ignore.

The
+3 Miami /-3 Cincy line move to a…
+4 Miami/-4 Cincy

Makes me think this will go down to the wire. I think it’s a great dog play personally .

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Miami +4 over Cincy.

Miami has had a shine I can’t ignore.

The
+3 Miami /-3 Cincy line move to a…
+4 Miami/-4 Cincy

Makes me think this will go down to the wire. I think it’s a great dog play personally .

Thanks, movin. Putting you down for Mia +4.

You're going against the world for sure. See my post above. It's like people are buying the Bengals on credit and making the purchase.

Good Luck. And enjoy the Thur game (win or lose).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

not sure but last year it was 100% and like for years past rookie HC's from college are losing thier 1st prime time games so Chucky we go all in on Bengals at home vs Dolphins

OK, thanks, Bill. I'm sure that guy is shitting his pants.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks (thus far):

(Thur) Miami +4

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48
Hou +6
Jax +6.5
Ten +3
San Fran -2

[MovinUnits]

Detroit clearly better than Seattle but line has moved from -6.5 to -4.5. What is that about?

I think it means the public is all over Seattle or someone put a ton on Seattle. A 2 pt jump like that is making me think Seattle may win this even if on paper they really shouldn’t . Detroit should put up 49 Sunday by the book which is almost too good…. Almost. I’m not personally calling either one yet.

Last week I saw Chiefs drop Saturday night from like -6 to -2.5 for like an hour on Draft Kings and Indy ended up winning the game … I’m wondering if it’s a tell towards Seattle but it might just need to be watched ….I’d love to see where it goes from here though

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think it means the public is all over Seattle or someone put a ton on Seattle. A 2 pt jump like that is making me think Seattle may win this even if on paper they really shouldn’t . Detroit should put up 49 Sunday by the book which is almost too good…. Almost. I’m not personally calling either one yet.

Last week I saw Chiefs drop Saturday night from like -6 to -2.5 for like an hour on Draft Kings and Indy ended up winning the game … I’m wondering if it’s a tell towards Seattle but it might just need to be watched ….I’d love to see where it goes from here though

It's a sporting event, so in some ways there's an element of randomness. My two cents on the Det/Sea line move:

1) I mentioned the two DET injuries.
2) People have a hard time backing a perennial 2nd-division team (like Det) as a fav > 3pts.

It just doesn't look right. Detroit has shown signs. The loss at MIN was crippling, b/c that would have jumped the Vikes in the standings w/ the H2H win.

So, really, how bad is SEA? I'd say they're pretty bad. They lose 30-0 at San Fran, if not for the blocked FG return for TD.

[Tomatero]

NYJets +3.5, i dont be suprise if jets win SU

[ChuckyTheGoat]

NYJets +3.5, i dont be suprise if jets win SU

OK, putting you down for Jets +3.5. Good Luck.

# has moved a LITTLE based on Wilson returning. For Week1, looked like the market judged Wilson>>>Flacco to be worth about 1.5pts. On the return, looks like the change is even less.

Maybe worth 1/2-pt...but hard to tell on #s close to 3.

[MiDNiTe]

Also like Miami +4, Bengals have played 1cok game against jets and looked terrible the other 2 while Miami have looked great

[jackpot269]

Houston +5.5 at FD this line has dropped saw that jake got 6. I like Houston because of all the injury's some will play but its my play

With the Charges having the injury Bug
Hurbert ribs usually don't heal quickly and hurts like hell LP yesterday FP today
Kennen LP yesterday LP today
Left tackle Rashawn Slater ruptured his biceps tendon
Jalen Guyton suffered a torn ACL.
Joey Bosa didn't see anything on him but he left game last week

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Houston +5.5 at FD this line has dropped saw that jake got 6. I like Houston because of all the injury's some will play but its my play

With the Charges having the injury Bug
Hurbert ribs usually don't heal quickly and hurts like hell LP yesterday FP today
Kennen LP yesterday LP today
Left tackle Rashawn Slater ruptured his biceps tendon
Jalen Guyton suffered a torn ACL.
Joey Bosa didn't see anything on him but he left game last week

Thank you, Jack. Very good info.

Yes, the Charger injuries have been a big discussion point. Very lengthy list of injuries they got hit with. Add in Pro Bowl Center Linsley to your list!

I had to adjust my Charger rating. I'd go one further. Downgrade the Jag win at LAC, was versus a depleted lineup.

Updated list for the week:

Summary of picks (thus far):

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5

Jets +3.5
Ten +3
San Fran -2

[OldBill]

not sure but last year it was 100% and like for years past rookie HC's from college are losing thier 1st prime time games so Chucky we go all in on Bengals at home vs Dolphins

27 -15 another rookie HC goes bye bye in 1st primo time game next one goes up sat night stay tuned all we a 98% edge in this one

[ChuckyTheGoat]

27 -15 another rookie HC goes bye bye in 1st primo time game next one goes up sat night stay tuned all we a 98% edge in this one

You have me on the edge of my seat, Billy.

Have a nice wkend, bud. Hope you have a nice layout of food & drink set up.

[Jayvegas420]

I know it's supposed to be teams but significant offensive injuries for Cleveland are gonna send the game under 47... it will be Atlanta's 1st under of the season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I know it's supposed to be teams but significant offensive injuries for Cleveland are gonna send the game under 47... it will be Atlanta's 1st under of the season.

Thx, Jay. I'll put you down on Cle/Atl UNDER 47.

Same play that edawg posted. GL, Jay.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Houston +5.5 at FD this line has dropped saw that jake got 6. I like Houston because of all the injury's some will play but its my play

With the Charges having the injury Bug
Hurbert ribs usually don't heal quickly and hurts like hell LP yesterday FP today
Kennen LP yesterday LP today
Left tackle Rashawn Slater ruptured his biceps tendon
Jalen Guyton suffered a torn ACL.
Joey Bosa didn't see anything on him but he left game last week

Bosa was put on IR

Chargers already have the injury bug to various key players

Cursed franchise and they deserve it with those shite owners

[jackpot269]

Bosa was put on IR

Chargers already have the injury bug to various key players

Cursed franchise and they deserve it with those shite owners

[pologq]

I know it's supposed to be teams but significant offensive injuries for Cleveland are gonna send the game under 47... it will be Atlanta's 1st under of the season.

and with this i am leaning falcons to pull out a win at home

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I know it's supposed to be teams but significant offensive injuries for Cleveland are gonna send the game under 47... it will be Atlanta's 1st under of the season.

Summary of picks (thus far):

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5

Jets +3.5
Ten +3
San Fran -2

[OldBill]

ok Chucky thx for the getting food n drinks set up but recently had dental surgery all teeffus gone so i barely can eat the stuff i love which are in Philly #1 cheese steaks # 2 burgers # 3 my fav of all pizza ahhhhh 3 more weeks go in to see about getting full set of dentures

any how my top pick this week with a 98% edge fading Colts -3 we hammer Titans to beat up with the ground and short passing

any team will fail after going from huge negative to a plus Colts were - 27 points A T S then went to plus 8.5 as a 5.5 Dog that ='s 35.5 points move neg. to pos. also the win as dog now favored 65% failure over 25 years in nfl is in play

backing up my system heres the teams past week that went kaboom

Cards -17.5 to + 11.5 wham week 3 -4.5 as a 3.5 dog Patriots small -9.5 + 1 wam -8.5wk 3 JETS -8.5 +7.5wk 3 -9 at home

49ers -15.5 +12.5 wk 3 wam -2.5 as small chalk

oooooooooooooooo chit Titans also just did huge crosover -29 to + 3.5 ahhhhhh hell with it taking them to cover and possibly win s/u

keep it small guys i still have to handicap these games ats and schedule traps trveling west to east etc...

[MovinUnits]

I’m 0-1 with that Miami game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I’m 0-1 with that Miami game.

Movin, it was a good try. Like a lot of these NFL games the ATS swung on one play, the Bridgewater INT. I do wonder if MIA would have kicked the FG...or if there wasn't enough time left.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ok Chucky thx for the getting food n drinks set up but recently had dental surgery all teeffus gone so i barely can eat the stuff i love which are in Philly #1 cheese steaks # 2 burgers # 3 my fav of all pizza ahhhhh 3 more weeks go in to see about getting full set of dentures

any how my top pick this week with a 98% edge fading Colts -3 we hammer Titans to beat up with the ground and short passing

any team will fail after going from huge negative to a plus Colts were - 27 points A T S then went to plus 8.5 as a 5.5 Dog that ='s 35.5 points move neg. to pos. also the win as dog now favored 65% failure over 25 years in nfl is in play

backing up my system heres the teams past week that went kaboom

Cards -17.5 to + 11.5 wham week 3 -4.5 as a 3.5 dog Patriots small -9.5 + 1 wam -8.5wk 3 JETS -8.5 +7.5wk 3 -9 at home

49ers -15.5 +12.5 wk 3 wam -2.5 as small chalk

oooooooooooooooo chit Titans also just did huge crosover -29 to + 3.5 ahhhhhh hell with it taking them to cover and possibly win s/u

keep it small guys i still have to handicap these games ats and schedule traps trveling west to east etc...

OK, thanks for contributing, Bill! As much as my brain is scrambled...I think I actually understand your point. Think you're talking about the ATS oscillations and how we might identify a pattern that becomes useful going forward.

For sure, the Colts looked dead in 1st two weeks. The win over Kan City almost looks like a mistake (in comparison). Putting you down for Ten +3.5 (current line), so you get an extra hook.

Summary of picks (thus far):

(Thur) Miami +4: ATS loss

Raiders -2 (2x. I'm counting USC's post as backing Raiders)
Clev/Atl: UND 48...with UNd 47
Hou +6...with Hou +5.5
Jax +6.5

Jets +3.5
Ten +3...with +3.5
San Fran -2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some good contributions in here. I'll be on the edge of my seat on Sunday.

[MovinUnits]

I’m goin with
Chicago +3 vs NYG

I think this week is a true
“ leveling out” week that might have started with the Miami loss. ( I also think this is why Seattle will beat Detroit and why TB gets back on track but I’m making only one bet a week as if it were for real money so I’m putting pressure on myself to really look at it hard …so my final play in all of it is Chi +3) The public is gona be all over NYG too so I’m fading that. I also just believe the Bears are due for a meaningful win. Technically their better than the Patriots right now… if you can believe that. I also think the new coach over there is getting thru to the team implementing his “ hits program” that told them “get ready to run” conditioning-wise before the season started. I think Chicago is goin in there with something to prove to themselves and I think they can do it personally.