Trying to place more emphasis on capping O-Lines and D-Lines this year in college

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  • VegasDave
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-03-07
    • 8056

    #1
    Trying to place more emphasis on capping O-Lines and D-Lines this year in college
    My mind keeps taking me back to when Georgia faced Hawaii, a Hawaii team that had an incredible offense and an amazing 1-2-3 punch in Colt Brennan, Bess, and Gryce-Mullen.

    Hawaii was a 7 point dog, and I remember thinking that while Georgia would likely win, Hawaii's offense was too damn good to stop.

    What I didn't factor in was how dominate Georgia was at both lines. They pressured, hurried, knocked down, and sacked Brennan on just about every play, and on offense they pushed the D-Line aside like it was nothing.

    Handicappers sometimes get too caught up in statistics and skill players... I know I have. And while I will continue to incorporate skill players in, I won't do so without also studying the big boys in the trenches. It's noticeable in pro football, too, but at the college level there are sometimes such massive skill differences on the lines that it ends up being all that matters.
  • onthewhat
    Restricted User
    • 05-14-08
    • 15411

    #2
    Oh boy.

    Dave, you're wasting your time.

    IT'S ALREADY FACTORED IN TO THE LINE!!!

    Just wait til gametime and get the best number. Otherwise you will get burried.
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    • Chi_archie
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-22-08
      • 63172

      #3
      if you can't win in the trenches you can't win period....


      this is one of more than a dozen reasons that you can't cap football based soley or mostly on stats..... its all about matchups, and matchups on the line of scrimmage... and most people don't know a thing about any of that
      Comment
      • VegasDave
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-03-07
        • 8056

        #4
        Originally posted by onthewhat
        Oh boy.

        Dave, you're wasting your time.

        IT'S ALREADY FACTORED IN TO THE LINE!!!

        Just wait til gametime and get the best number. Otherwise you will get burried.
        Hey, dumbass, guess what? PUBLIC PERCEPTION is also FACTORED IN TO THE LINE!!

        If the bookies factor everything into the line and realize that Team A is a 4 point favorite over Team B, but then they realize that the public has no idea how good Team A is because Team B is a massively publicly adored team, they can set it at a pick'em and still get tons of action on Team B!

        As an example, if it was ALREADY FACTORED IN TO THE LINE, why was Georgia only a single digit favorite? Bookmakers probably knew that Georgia was going to dominate the pace of the game, but they fed off the public's love of Hawaii and made it a line that would garner attention on both sides.

        If you are going to parade around acting like you are the shit, use your fvcking brain, dude.
        Comment
        • onthewhat
          Restricted User
          • 05-14-08
          • 15411

          #5
          Dave, there is something called a professional gambler. If the true line is 4 pts, and book sets it at pk...its gonna get hit by 10k a pop until its at 4...

          Books dont care that you bet 20 bucks on the other side
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          • VegasDave
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-03-07
            • 8056

            #6
            Originally posted by onthewhat
            Dave, there is something called a professional gambler. If the true line is 4 pts, and book sets it at pk...its gonna get hit by 10k a pop until its at 4...

            Books dont care that you bet 20 bucks on the other side
            But those professional gamblers don't cap games, right? They...

            Originally posted by onthewhat
            Just wait til gametime and get the best number.
            Or are you saying there is value in actually capping the game, now?
            Comment
            • onthewhat
              Restricted User
              • 05-14-08
              • 15411

              #7
              Professionals dont cap it the way you do.

              Haven't you watched justin7's vids where he caps a game? He doesn't base it from what he saw on espn...
              Comment
              • VegasDave
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-03-07
                • 8056

                #8
                Originally posted by onthewhat
                Professionals dont cap it the way you do.

                Haven't you watched justin7's vids where he caps a game? He doesn't base it from what he saw on espn...
                I'm just trying to start a discussion on the importance of battles on the lines, and yet you as usual feel the need to hijack every thread I start and make this about how much I suck. We get it, honestly we all do. I've even admitted that I suck numerous times, even I get it. When will you just let it go?
                Comment
                • james4512
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-27-08
                  • 3707

                  #9
                  i hate to do this to you dave but georgia was my play of the year vs hawaii in 2007
                  Comment
                  • VegasDave
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-03-07
                    • 8056

                    #10
                    Originally posted by james4512
                    i hate to do this to you dave but georgia was my play of the year vs hawaii in 2007
                    Haha no reason to hate to do that to me... good call
                    Comment
                    • onthewhat
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-14-08
                      • 15411

                      #11
                      Dave I am trying to help you

                      I finally figured out how to win...but if you won't accept the fact that you can't win by comparing tim tebow vs taylor mays then i'll just watch you go broke...
                      Comment
                      • MartinBlank
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-20-08
                        • 8382

                        #12
                        Dave....

                        I have always used "returning number of starts" for an offensive line when developing my number.

                        Interestingly-----of the programs that had more than 100 career starts returning for the 2008 season----all eight teams had a winning ATS record.

                        This year there are 7 I believe.....

                        I don't have my binder in front of me, will post more later.
                        Comment
                        • Chi_archie
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-22-08
                          • 63172

                          #13
                          great stuff Martin..... it all begins....on the O-line..... career starts, and if possible to find career starts TOGETHER, cohesion is a great thing
                          Comment
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