Fiba americas 2009 .... 8.26-9.06

[MilfDriller]

Lots of games coming up and lots of good opps.

I posted in another thread about the VEN/ARG under 158.5. So I'll start this off as 1-0.


Arg looks like absolute shit. They are w/o basically everybody. Bra looks to be the clear-cut favorite to win it all. Puerto Rico looks clumsy. Dom Rep (w/ Garcia, Villanueva, Horford) gave Bra a good test... but ended fading late.

Arg was a 9 pt fave vs. Venezuela, but got routed... down by as much 22 in the 4th.

Venezuela plays Bra on Thursday and this should be a fantastic bet. I think the line will be no less than -12.0... but it's too early to have a feel for that. Either way, Venezuela should give them a good challenge at this stage.

Also, PR was a 14.5 pt fave vs. shitty Mexico.... and they gone done did suck a dick until HT. Covered by a half-point after trailing by 4 at HT. In their previous 2 games prior to this tourney the were wholly untrustworthy.

Argentina is absolute fade material. They play Bra on the 28th.. and they will get annihilated. Also, I'm thinking that Ven will go 3-0 ATS in their first 3 games...
yet they are forced to play 4 straight games in 4 days. The only other team suffering that fate is ISV.. w/ other factors that may cue the under for that game on the 29th w/ the Dom Rep.

[MilfDriller]

Ven line opened at 13.5. Now 12.5


2ND PLAY: VENEZUELA +12.5 > BRASIL


Rep Dom -14.0, Panama, 162.5
Canada -9.5, Mexico, 151.5
Brasil -12.5, Ven, 162.5
P.Rico -19.5, VI, 157.5

[MilfDriller]

18-18 , end 1st ... but don't like what I'm seeing from Ven

[MilfDriller]

24-20 Bra, 5:00

think this cover will be decided by how Bra plays in the 3rd. won't be a 4th qrtr blow up. so 3rd qrtr will be the test.

[MilfDriller]

33-20 , lazy Venezuelans. cover gone

[fuglyboy86hi]

24-42

[MilfDriller]

44-24 , HT

terrible pick. they're gonig to lose by 25-35

[tullamore]

Hopefully the under pace keeps up in the 2nd half.

[MilfDriller]

tull, I think you've got about 93 pts to spare... you've got a winner

[tullamore]

tull, I think you've got about 93 pts to spare... you've got a winner

I am keeping an eye on these unders, won with the Mexican under earlier. These tournments seem like money makers.

[MilfDriller]

46-24 ... Ven isn't even trying. lazy as can be

[MilfDriller]

53-28

Ven can't score.. and are just shooting long jumpers... which turn into Bra sprints

not a chance in hell Ven can comeback and cover

[MilfDriller]

1-1

really bad pick. Bra is the clear cut best.

[flyingillini]

Keep the good work you are an expert in this field!

[MilfDriller]

Only thing that can hinder this cover is Brasil having 3rd game in 3rd day.... and Arg coming off a break. But Bra is the best by far... and Arg is a shell of what it normally is.


3rd pick: Brasil -9.0 > Argentina

[MilfDriller]

what a disgrace. Bra only 2 pts in over 7 minutes in the 2nd qrtr.... up 23-13.... now 23-21

[MilfDriller]

37-23 HT

No way in hell Bra should win by less than double digits in this game... but I have been colder than Janet Reno's vagina in the heart of Antartica during the peak of winter.

[MilfDriller]

60-46 , E3

60-51 , 830
60-54 , 750 ... say bye-bye to the cover

[MilfDriller]

68-60 , 4:11

[MilfDriller]

68-63

[MilfDriller]

75-65 , 115 ... Arg ball
75-67 , 050 ... off an off reb.... bullshit

Bra misses first FT

76-67 ... 30 sec

[MilfDriller]

76-67 FT ... fvckign garbage

1-1-1

[007Fatty]

haha dirty!!! good try tho!
maybe try playing brazil 1st quarter in games
they come out real hard

[MilfDriller]

4th pick: VI/CANADA Under 153 at Grk

[007Fatty]

I like it!!!

[MilfDriller]

44-26 HT

w/ this being 3rd day.... and VI low on key players... there should be a drop off in 4th.... so this should be zero stress cover.... altho I am cold as shit right now

[MilfDriller]

PR has been unreliable.... but they are the better team. Tough spot w/ the sequencing of these games, but PR is the clear winner of this game. Even if they shit the bed in the 1H like they have been doing, they can still come back and cover.


5th pick: PR -6.0 > URUGUAY........................ (pinny)

[MilfDriller]

r u fvcking kiddign me? 154 pts??????

8 pts in the last 39 seconds of the game... up by 20 already???

and a foul w/ 3 seconds left.... to push it over???

u fvcking kidding me?

I can't catch a fvcking break.

1-2-1

[MilfDriller]

2-2-1


PR covers easily. Ven loss was a legit one. Other loss came by 8 pts in last 39 seconds of a blowout.. and primarily off of fouls. Just bad breaks so far.

[Shortstop]

Go get 'em Driller! Continued success to you as always!

[MilfDriller]

Okay, so 2-2-1. Now, looking at that carefully... and being totally frank, I was right on 4 games and totally wrong on 1. That's fine.

One game absolutely stands out for Sat's action:

CANADA -6.5 (-118) > URUGUAY

Canada is the most fundamentally sound team in the tourney right now. They are methodical and pass the ball 5 or 6 times before a shot and are playing well together. Uruguay got pelted last night vs. PR and they have a quick turnaround against a superior Canada team. Again, Canada is the clear-cut better team and they are prolly 13-15 pts better than Uruguay.

Canada is 2-0 along w/ PR atop their group. And that is how those teams will finish.

First glance and I would've thought Canada by double-digits. PR did their usual 'smoke a dick' routine in the 1half... and then ended up beating Uruguay by 17 pts.

[MilfDriller]

Real quick. Other games for Sat.

ARG -8.5 > PAN.... Arg is simply not covering and have not been doing so. Had BRA been in that game w/ 70% effort, they would've been dusted by 20+. Now Arg is a near 10 pt fave vs a Panama team that just took care of a lazy Venezuela team (who were all illusion in that 1st game) by 9 pts? Come on.

This game has 4 or 5 pt win by either team w/ a tight finish written all over it.

MEX/VI... go throw dice

RD/VEN .... RD is a 9.5 fave.. and that's what it should be. VEN made a push in the 2half after trailing at the half by a decent margin to Panama.... but the comeback stalled. 3rd game in 3 days. Now they are playing a team that is a class better than them and on the 4th day in a row....

... and how lazy was Ven in their 2nd game... just chucking jumpers and not evening attempting to run back vs. Brasil. Really, I think the lazy Venezualans will definitely lose here and most likely not cover the spread... or get close to it. That first game was a mirage and an illusion... as Argentina is a shell and not playing well.

[MilfDriller]

Totals? can't trust any of them, imo.

YEP, there it is. Canada line now at -8.0.

Canada wins by 10 easy.... and I'm not smoking crack this time.

[MilfDriller]

I'll only play one today... and that will be Canada. But I will wait. Have a feeling my cold streak is about to come to an end.

[MilfDriller]

After reflecting a while, this reminds me of those games they played in China not too long ago. That was easy pickin'.... and the games just opened up out of nowhere. I think that's what has happened today.

So I'm going to do 3 games... and I expect to go 3-0.



6th Pick: CANADA -7.5 > URUGUAY...............................

7th Pick: REP.DOM -9.5 > VENEZUELA............................

8th Pick: PANAMA +9.0 > ARGENTINA.............................



Btw, a parlay of $50 on PAN -ML, CAN -7.5, RD -9.5 would pay around $490...... or +980