Nadal does not win the French Open, risk 500 to win 450

[Poisec]

Very fine odds considering Nadal is looking terrible, yet he is the big favorite as usual to win the French Open.

I am just betting on what I see, and this is Nadal 2015 I am seeing recently. I see good value, the public is blinded by the fact it is clay GOAT we are talking about.

Physically I see a big decline in him, will need to win a lot of matches in straight sets to have a chance to go all the way. Can't see him happening, he is playing terrible and youngsters have now the physical advantage over him. The guy is turning 35 next month.

[Poisec]

Wish me good luck on paper it looks like the worst bet you can make, but only on paper IMO.

Rooting for Tsitsipas, Djokovic, Thiem, Rublev, these guys are now physically stronger than Nadal.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Get em Poisec.

[jjgold]

It’s a great bet

We’ve all seen he’s not as dominant anymore because of age and there’s a lot a great young players coming up

[slayer14]

Nadal has a extra gear at french open

[Brooklyn Dick]

Nadal is beatable on Clay 2 out of 3 sets. But it is a different story 3 out of 5. That said it is still better to go against him at this price though. But won't be easy.

[jjgold]

He is 35 years old

All you need to know

[SamsNCharge99]

Beat him 3/5. Whats his record there 107-2 or something stupid

[Foxx]

It’s a great bet
We’ve all seen he’s not as dominant anymore because of age and there’s a lot a great young players coming up

Kiss of death for your bet Poisec. Sorry for your loss.

[slayer14]

Next year go against nadal not this year he seems very emotional to win another french this year

[DR225]

You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.

[jjgold]

DR excellent point!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

DR excellent point!

Not one to (normally) question one's bet. This bet strikes me as insane.

For a while, the pundits thought Nadal might NEVER lose at Roland Garros. Guy's track record at French and on Clay (in general) is crazy good. Would think he could win, even if he's at 60%.

Good Luck!

[Thrilla]

Homie1975 check in pls

[Maizey]

You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.

Valid point, but not a certainty. By waiting, you also give up the possibility of him going out early with an injury.

[El Nino]

Thought the same thing last year...

Maybe you'll get lucky with an early injury. Otherwise, come the quarters, semis, and the final you'll get better odds on his opponent.

[Poisec]

You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.

Not necessarily, cannot predict but let's suppose he looked vulnerable to reach the quarters and faces Thiem who looked good, Thiem would be at +300, if Nadal wins the match, faces Tsitsipas, goes through and faces Djokovic in the final. You lost money on Thiem and Tsitsipas already and get +150 on Djokovic in the final. Not a great deal.

I see your point but so many things can happen that I didn't want to bother.


@El Nino yeah last year I thought Nadal wouldn't win but didn't dare to pull the trigger, glad I didn't. This year I am going to trust my gut feeling on this one. Rome will give some answers.

[PharaohUB]

I like it. Which book are you making this bet?

[Poisec]

I like it. Which book are you making this bet?

Thanks. It's a lay bet on Easysportbet (a Betfair broker). If you are in the US I guess you can use Orbitx through Asian Connect, the odds should be the same.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks. It's a lay bet on Easysportbet (a Betfair broker). If you are in the US I guess you can use Orbitx through Asian Connect, the odds should be the same.

Hope u win, man. Ballsy call.

It's one of those things. How much are historical stats baked into the line? What is reality?

I love all sports. I'll give u a comparison that might sound ridiculous:

*Recent USA Olympic qualifying tournament: Burroughs vs Dake.

Dake is younger, he had been chasing down Burroughs for years. Burroughs held the national team spot for 10 yrs.

Surely, Burroughs had to be the Fav. (Note: not sure there was a line). As it played out, Dake dominated and won.

When you look back at it, how could Dake not be the fav? He was stronger, younger, less burnt out.

[Poisec]

Hope u win, man. Ballsy call.

It's one of those things. How much are historical stats baked into the line? What is reality?

I love all sports. I'll give u a comparison that might sound ridiculous:

*Recent USA Olympic qualifying tournament: Burroughs vs Dake.

Dake is younger, he had been chasing down Burroughs for years. Burroughs held the national team spot for 10 yrs.

Surely, Burroughs had to be the Fav. (Note: not sure there was a line). As it played out, Dake dominated and won.

When you look back at it, how could Dake not be the fav? He was stronger, younger, less burnt out.

Good point, I say the odds are based on reputation and past performances of course, he lost only 2 matches at the French Open but last time I saw him that bad on clay was in 2015 and he lost at the French Open in the quarters. I just hope he won't be in the same half of the draw as Medvedev

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Poise, if u get this one right, you'll look like a genius and be the envy of us all.K

Keep us posted on what # u get down on. Hope u get Field +100 or better. Good Luck!

[cincinnatikid513]

he's starting to look human on clay

[PharaohUB]

If we think nadal might be dethroned this year thiem seems a good play at 8-1. He’s been the second best performer in this tournament in recent years and he seems to have a knack of turning it on for grand slams even if his recent form isn’t convincing

[jjgold]

If we think nadal might be dethroned this year thiem seems a good play at 8-1. He’s been the second best performer in this tournament in recent years and he seems to have a knack of turning it on for grand slams even if his recent form isn’t convincing

seem suffering from depression

stay away from him

[hawkwind]

Like IT GL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

seem suffering from depression

stay away from him

Theim it is!

[chargers4222]

There is one guy playing better and more consistently than anyone else in the world and I haven't heard him mentioned one time in the RG winner conversation -- Aslan Karatsev.

[stepaside777]

i think it makes sense
i have already won against nadal by betting on zverev and rublev as i said the same hes not that amazing anymore, but time will show
if he can win RG federer will win wimbledon

[PharaohUB]

There is one guy playing better and more consistently than anyone else in the world and I haven't heard him mentioned one time in the RG winner conversation -- Aslan Karatsev.

I plan to put a little on him but it seems guys who come out of nowhere like that don’t do well in grand slams in my humble experience. I think the top guys pace themselves better and train for grand slams where karatsev trying to win everything.

[TheMetsSuck]

Lotta value. I personally would never bet against Rafa in the French. Betting Rafa to win the French have been some of the biggest wins in my gambling career.

Good luck

[jjgold]

Nadal has tough match tomorrow be sinner

[Unrivaled]

I don't like this at all. Djokovic not in form, who will beat him?

[Unrivaled]

Nadal has tough match tomorrow be sinner

French open starts May 23.

[jjgold]

Tomorrow
More important to Nadal
Than French