Because that looks like the only way i am going to get any action at home. No way i am going to put any money with any of the books. It looks like they are making it sorta easy to put money in but not take it out.
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Very tough game to beat. I try because I love the sport and the handicapping challenge but always lose by the end of the year.
2005 was not a bad year, as I lost only $400. Not as good in 2006, as I dropped about $1,200 but that represented a lot of gambling days, especially in July and August when I made plays just about every day. I was down about $1,200 entering July, trimmed the deficit to $600 by the end of Saratoga, then had a terrible Sept. and October to jump back to minus $1,200, and was even the final two months.
I consistently win at Saratoga and lose everywhere else but I'm much better now than I was in my late 20s, when I had a couple years of losing $7,000 each year. I've never dropped more than $2,000 since.
Very tough, but when you do score a nice ticket, it's a great feeling. I just usually give it back.
Originally posted by XvMMvXComment -
I agree it is a hard game to play but if you have a good system that works and if you don't bet every race and just limit yourself you give yourself a better chance of winning at the races. I have a buddy of mine that made alot of money last year because he has a strict system and he just has a few plays a week and he only bets win and place, he doesn't even mess with tris and exatas at all. He was very successful last year she showed me his stats and he won about 70 percent of the races he handicapped that won the race and about 15 percent of them came in 2nd. Thats pretty good and he doesn't like to give his plays out to anyone because he thinks that his odds will get too low if he tells too many people. I have told him with big tracks I don't think it would make a difference because there is so much money in them pools. The key thing is not to play trifectas or exactas and you will be better off in the long run according to him.Comment -
I play the standardbreds professionally........which i'm sure isn't a great help to alot of people as most people are thoroughbred guys. Also own a couple on the side which helps when they are going good and the betting is going bad! It's a terrible grind sometimes but have lasted 16 years doing it. Just the last couple years since i had a child have i started to do a few other things, all to do with the online gaming industry! (i.e poker), This allows me to stay home more often, tho i still do watch the races/bet every nite from home. Eventually want to get out of betting professionally, so that's why i've begun to branch out into other areas!Comment -
Rule#1....Don't bet chalk!....Rule#2...Don't bet chalk!...Been playing them for 40 years and by following those rules I ain't broke yet!Also learn your riders,they do make a difference
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learn to Bet the stables
dogs ??? play the daily lotto
btw-- unfortunately for you, the rebates from offshore books can really help the ROIComment -
racing is the toughest game in the world to beat and the takeout is a killer. I would never bet a favorite to win either. It also seems just throwing 3 numbers out at the window and boxing them is just as good as the guy studying form all day. If you are going to bet be selective and don't make a lot of bets.Comment -
I am good at betting the ponies. And profitable too. I only bet trifectas. Why bet into a bet where 25% is taken out of the pool before redistribution?
Well, let's say a race has 9 entries. There are 9x8x7=504 different combinations. Now take a look around your local racetrack at the people betting. Do these people have enough to cover even 50 combinations (10% of total) Doubt it. Most people can only cover a few combinations, usually with one of the favorites on top or in second position.
Now go back to some results from any track anywhere on anyday, and look for races where the favorite finished 3rd. Now look at the ratio between the exacta payoff and the trifecta payoff. Unreal overlays. Let me give you an example.
The 6th race at Santa Anita January 21. 12 horse field.
Results:
1st place horse odds - 7.80
2nd place horse odds - 20.00 (DQ from 1st, doesn't matter)
3rd place horse odds - 0.50
$1 Exacta payoff - $136.20
$1 Trifecta payoff - $378.60
How can the trifecta pay at odds of +177 relative to the exacta, when the 3rd place horse odds are 1/2? Shouldn't the trifecta be paying more in the range of $136.20 x 1.50 = $204? After all, even though 2 horses beat the heavy chalk, shouldn't it's odds still be 1/2 at beating the rest of the field to come in 3rd?
Yes, but people just can't afford to play that "deep" and can't play enough combos to include the favorite to come in 3rd, therefore huge overlay, and overlay so large it devours the inherent 25% takeout of the track.
So one way to beat the races is to key vulnerable favorites for 3rd position in trifectas, because others can't play as deep.
There are a variety of other ways to profit at the races , all involve trifecta keying.
This does not work for the exacta pool because there are many fewer possible combinations, and all can be covered proportionally, therefore overlays rarely pop up.Comment -
I have come to believe the same as your buddy. Bet very infrequently to win on the outstanding selection using a strict mechanical system. Glad to see that others have drawn the same conclusions and are doing well.Originally posted by tblues2005
Good luck to you.Comment -
a mech system apllied to select- and often rare- races can produce good profits.There are several startegies that are easy to apply- and very effective. But we really need to cut the track juice in half(7-8% rebate). Come back Pinnacle.Comment
