New England Best season ever...........

bigboydan · 01-17-07, 08:43 AM

Sorry, but I can't use the "due theory". Marty Schottenheimer was "due" too, and he lost yet again this year.

Tom Brady is still has a 12-1 record in the playoffs, and I'll take my chances with the Patriots in this game.

Mudcat · 01-17-07, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by The Genius

Is it me or does everyone else believe that the pats could win on Sunday.

Of course they could. This is a team that has won 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls. Despite a good last two weeks, you have to wonder if that Colts defense is going to return to the crappy form they showed all year.

I don't see myself betting it but if I was, I would go Pats ML. This game looks like a coinflip to me so +155 is good value.

Korchnoi · 01-17-07, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by Mudcat

Of course they could. This is a team that has won 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls. Despite a good last two weeks, you have to wonder if that Colts defense is going to return to the crappy form they showed all year.

I don't see myself betting it but if I was, I would go Pats ML. This game looks like a coinflip to me so +155 is good value.

I'm almost exclusively a technical/scalper player, but I'm long a big freeplay on Pats to go all the way and I'm tempted to let more of it ride than I should. Partly b/c I'm starting to view online gambling funds at a discount to secured funds that I'd use to hedge out the bet.

Right now the mkts are roughly:
Bears 18
Colts 39
Saints 16.5
Pats 26.5

If the Bears/Saints winner is equally likely to beat Pats or Colts (34.5%) then the implied ML% for Pats to beat the Colts is 40.5. It's trading a bit under that. Perhaps that's b/c the Bears/Saints have a better shot beating the Pats than the Colts. Since I'm not a fundamentals guy, would you agree with this assumption? If so, perhaps I should sell out at 26.5%.

BuddyBear · 01-17-07, 01:20 PM

I like INDY here....