2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[ByeShea]

A few things

Zia poll https://mirsnews.com/pdfs/poll_cross...1603227211.pdf
C/D rated pollster at Five Thirty Eight
Says Biden has a slight lead among African Americans (Hillary won over 90% of the black vote in Michigan)
Respondents are 79% white, 10% black, white number seems high for Michigan (could be wrong)

This appears to be the only poll they have conducted on the election. In 2016 they polled New Mexico only and showed Clinton with a 2-point lead. She won NM by more than 8 points.

That cross tab suggests Biden barely edging Trump with the black vote. I'm a big believer in Trump's chances (or am I a huge skeptic of big media?), but I don't think it's that strong. I will say that Trump will achieve what tried and failed to do in '16, which was to dump the African-American vote > 90% D model on its head.

Rasmussen polling has shown consistently for months btw 20-46% support for Trump. If it's anywhere near these levels we're looking at a Trump landslide - or certainly a lock for MI's 16 electoral votes.

[RoyBacon]

There's no path to victory for Biden if Trump wins PA. There is no path to victory for Biden if Trump wins MI.

= no Biden path to victory. Period.

Agree

I wouldn't get bent out of shape on the +185 odds. For starters, that ain't the closing line. If it closes there, feel free to panic.

There are two patches of info coming in; 1) AZ is in trouble 2) Trump is kicking azz in the midwest

We will have to wait until the data sharpens.

[Judge Crater]

538 does not poll, they take an average of all rated polls
If we are going to cherry pick single outlier or shock polls, almost anything can be argued.

538 does not matter

PERIOD


NATE SILVER needs to shine shoes

[TheMoneyShot]

Agree

I wouldn't get bent out of shape on the +185 odds. For starters, that ain't the closing line. If it closes there, feel free to panic.

There are two patches of info coming in; 1) AZ is in trouble 2) Trump is kicking azz in the midwest

We will have to wait until the data sharpens.

And also don't forget at one point during election night Hillary was -800 Live wagering. I think Trump was +500. So again... anything can happen.

I'd like to see Trump at -1500 or more on election night.

[JohnGalt2341]

This is the most ironic post possible. First, we aren't talking sports, not that any risk (as you noted) or betting angle isn't the same paradigm of risk and reward. But seriously, we just had this very same situation occur 4 years ago, and the onus is on you to tell us why the media propaganda, which is obvious, isn't again running high, or why you are thinking it isn't is and assigning a foolish and brainless Biden win probability, which is dead wrong.

I have interest in the truth and that's why I have 5 figures on Trump at plus odds, and it is easily the best bet of the year I've seen on any subject, any platform. You are the one falling for the illusion. And you will see why in a little over 10 days from now. What remains to be seen is if you'll be man enough to admit you were wrong, again (like in 2016) and talk about the illusion you bought into from all this BS propaganda.

I'm not exactly sure what you are babbling about here but there is a REALLY SIMPLE way to figure out which one of is closer to the truth and which one of us is believing a lie.

I made several bets betting AGAINST Trump nearly a year ago and I got the price of +130 for many of those bets. Let's take a look and see what that price is now at BetOnline:

Nov 3 Tue 2020
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election

09:00 AM

Joe Biden

-200

Donald Trump

+175

+130 to -200. Anyone that can do basic math would agree that that was a very smart play. The public is finally catching up to my reality.

When YOU bet on Trump what price did you get? Because you can get it now for +175. If you got a worse price than that, then you are a fool.

[Judge Crater]

The true number is whatever the betting odds are

The closing number is the correct line, win or lose

The onus should be on the person with extraordinary position to prove it.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” Carl Sagan

[JohnGalt2341]

The true number is whatever the betting odds are

The closing number is the correct line, win or lose

The onus should be on the person with extraordinary position to prove it.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” Carl Sagan

I posted a couple of my +130 plays in a thread a while back. Rudy will confirm this. He said I was a fool because those bets were cancelled because it was 5Dimes. They canceled all pendings. It wasn't a big deal to me. I had bets elsewhere.

[Judge Crater]

I would guess 99% of winning players on SBR do so by beating the closing number. Well, Biden + money certainly is beating the closing number. I have some Biden at - small money. I have some Trump in ruby red states, and some Trump in PA after some bad polling for Biden 2 months back.

I posted a couple of my +130 plays in a thread a while back. Rudy will confirm this. He said I was a fool because those bets were cancelled because it was 5Dimes. They canceled all pendings. It wasn't a big deal to me. I had bets elsewhere.

[RoyBacon]

I would guess 99% of winning players on SBR do so by beating the closing number. Well, Biden + money certainly is beating the closing number. I have some Biden at - small money. I have some Trump in ruby red states, and some Trump in PA after some bad polling for Biden 2 months back.

There is also "bias" priced in. You have people of average intelligence that actually thought Trump would not make it his first year. I crushed those fuggers at PredictIt with all kinds if silly bets. I got a max bet that Avenatti would NOT rum for POTUS.

We have posters like vitty and dante that actually believe Trump is going to jail. There has ALWAYS been bias priced in against Trump.

[homie1975]

Agree

I wouldn't get bent out of shape on the +185 odds. For starters, that ain't the closing line. If it closes there, feel free to panic.

There are two patches of info coming in; 1) AZ is in trouble 2) Trump is kicking azz in the midwest

We will have to wait until the data sharpens.

Roy, While you are conceding that Donnie is going to have an uphill battle in AZ (I have him winning that state when it's said and done) your comment about the midwest is unfounded. You are just as biased as the Blue Crew so quite frankly the crap that all of you are spewing out here just doesn't really mean anything but consensus polling at Real Clear Politics is above the MOE for Joe in MI, PA and WI right now so I don't what states in the midwest and rust belt you are talking about. Most of those states don't matter the way the aforementioned three do due to much lower electoral tallies and most of us have already counted them Red.

If AZ goes Blue and MI goes Red, there is still a path to victory for Both candidates so I am unsure what some of you are seeing with your red and blue alternate goggles on.

[Judge Crater]

Bias on both sides perhaps. TBH, the Trump side seems more emotional and less poll driven here.

There is also "bias" priced in. You have people of average intelligence that actually thought Trump would not make it his first year. I crushed those fuggers at PredictIt with all kinds if silly bets. I got a max bet that Avenatti would NOT rum for POTUS.

We have posters like vitty and dante that actually believe Trump is going to jail. There has ALWAYS been bias priced in against Trump.

[RoyBacon]

Roy, While you are conceding that Donnie is going to have an uphill battle in AZ (I have him winning that state when it's said and done) your comment about the midwest is unfounded. You are just as biased as the Blue Crew so quite frankly the crap that all of you are spewing out here just doesn't really mean anything but consensus polling at Real Clear Politics is above the MOE for Joe in MI, PA and WI right now so I don't what states in the midwest and rust belt you are talking about. Most of those states don't matter the way the aforementioned three do due to much lower electoral tallies and most of us have already counted them Red.

If AZ goes Blue and MI goes Red, there is still a path to victory for Both candidates so I am unsure what some of you are seeing with your red and blue alternate goggles on.

OK.

We already talked about the under count. The under count is not the MOE. LOL

You are seeing heavy turnout in the midwest where republicans out registered dems and have a better ground game. Coincidentally, the midwest senate races have gone from complete blow outs to too close to call.

How many times do we have to learn the lesson of 2016?? Figure your under count and add it to the midway point of your MOE. And good luck..

[Judge Crater]

Biden grinding price up all day

Betfair
Biden -208
Trump +205

[Shafted69]

Just like that Stevie Nicks song ....... it's going to be a "Landslide"

If you like free money take Biden.

[vitterd]

Just like that Stevie Nicks song ....... it's going to be a "Landslide"

If you like free money take Biden.

Lmao. These guys are hysterical. They think more voting is better for trump. Guy has been trying to stop people from voting for 4 years. Idiots.

[Judge Crater]

I had read that at Betfair, the ten largest bets (213 million handle) were all on Biden. Lots of small bets on the Trump side. These are not rich industrialists betting these are professional syndicates.

[jt315]

Our new RP/Trafalgar poll shows President Trump surging ahead in Michigan.


@realDonaldTrump46.7%

@JoeBiden44.9%


Report here:

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/1001/attachments/original/1603307463/RSTP_MI_'20_Oct_Press_Report.pdf?1603307 463…

[vitterd]

Our new RP/Trafalgar poll shows President Trump surging ahead in Michigan.


@realDonaldTrump46.7%



@JoeBiden44.9%



Report here:

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/1001/attachments/original/1603307463/RSTP_MI_'20_Oct_Press_Report.pdf?1603307 463…

Bwaaaaahhhh!!!! Trafalgar is a republican pollster and one hit wonder. Missed cantor race by 40 points. Itsamazing is a better pollster. His prediction only lost by 30.

[homie1975]

OK.

We already talked about the under count. The under count is not the MOE. LOL

You are seeing heavy turnout in the midwest where republicans out registered dems and have a better ground game. Coincidentally, the midwest senate races have gone from complete blow outs to too close to call.

How many times do we have to learn the lesson of 2016?? Figure your under count and add it to the midway point of your MOE. And good luck..

understood.

[Judge Crater]

Whereupon we learn that Trafalgar, the GOP pollster in question, is doing something, AFAIK, unseen in any other political surveys. They're weighting for "social desirability", giving Trump bonus points on the assumption of the "shy Trump voter" theory.

Can you imagine a pollster saying "I gave Joe Biden an additional five percent because we think liberal voters are harder to get to the phone"?

I pick my favorite team to win it all every year, skewing meaningless stats to prove that my team is the best. They never win. Then one year, my team actually wins. I now have evidence that my analysis has always been spot-on.That's Trafalgar.

[ByeShea]

Bwaaaaahhhh!!!! Trafalgar is a republican pollster and one hit wonder. Missed cantor race by 40 points. Itsamazing is a better pollster. His prediction only lost by 30.

Maybe "Republican pollster" is something to look for rather than a disqualifier.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump was losing in 26 out of the final 30 2016 North Carolina polls. <br><br>Of the 4 polls that showed him winning, 3 of them were Republican polls.<br><br>Meaning out of the last 30 polls, only ONE non-GOP affiliated pollster had Trump winning North Carolina. A state he won by nearly 4%. <a href="https://t.co/QIKUNbFsJt">https://t.co/QIKUNbFsJt</a></p>&mdash; Manny (@bishop_gains) <a href="https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1319721450438225921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[jt315]

Bwaaaaahhhh!!!! Trafalgar is a republican pollster and one hit wonder. Missed cantor race by 40 points. Itsamazing is a better pollster. His prediction only lost by 30.

And you went all in on Hillary . Bwaaaaaaah !

[jt315]

Whereupon we learn that Trafalgar, the GOP pollster in question, is doing something, AFAIK, unseen in any other political surveys. They're weighting for "social desirability", giving Trump bonus points on the assumption of the "shy Trump voter" theory.

Can you imagine a pollster saying "I gave Joe Biden an additional five percent because we think liberal voters are harder to get to the phone"?

I pick my favorite team to win it all every year, skewing meaningless stats to prove that my team is the best. They never win. Then one year, my team actually wins. I now have evidence that my analysis has always been spot-on.That's Trafalgar.

And how did they do in 2016 ?

[Judge Crater]

If only there was a way to prove you really believe it

Betfair Michigan

Biden -263
Trump +255

I think the price is correct, no value for me to bet.

[jt315]

If only there was a way to prove you really believe it

Betfair Michigan

Biden -263
Trump +255

I think the price is correct, no value for me to bet.

It’s so off the wall crazy do a search on shy Trump voter and look at the articles not related to Trafalgar .


Now compare that to polls that consistently oversample Dems . , some to the tune of double digits and decide for yourself what poll will give you a result closest to the pin.

[ByeShea]

First, Wisconsin's WOW counties are Milwaukee suburbs - traditional base for Dem turnout/enthusiasm ... unfortunately for Team Biden, BLM ran roughshod over some of these places this summer - and the only thing Dems had to say was a tepid call to defund the police.

Now the roosters come home to roost... HERE'S SOME DATA, NOT PROJECTION FROM POLLING and it's nothing like the Dems were looking for...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wisconsin.... Holy crap <a href="https://t.co/5Zf5AwHgmi">pic.twitter.com/5Zf5AwHgmi</a></p>&mdash; Real American Politics (@RealAPolitics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1319761198297079809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Itsamazing777]

There is also "bias" priced in. You have people of average intelligence that actually thought Trump would not make it his first year. I crushed those fuggers at PredictIt with all kinds if silly bets. I got a max bet that Avenatti would NOT rum for POTUS.

We have posters like vitty and dante that actually believe Trump is going to jail. There has ALWAYS been bias priced in against Trump.

Spot on. They are very low iq

[StackinGreen]

1. Trump now incumbent: advantage Trump
2. Biden can't even draw 10 people to rallies, Hillary even did better than that with Tim Kaine. People think Hillary was not popular, Sleepy Joe is much less popular: advantage Trump
3. Another way of saying (2) is that Biden is nowhere near Trump in primary domination = base support. That's what Norpoth's model is based on, and he says of course advantage Trump: 91%
4. Similarly, blacks are ditching the Democrat again, and even more. What's worse? A lot of the blacks (mostly male) will not only not vote for Biden, they are pulling the lever for Trump. That's a multiplier; exponential win for Trump.
5. Battleground states are mostly european, tried and true americans, regardless of their attention to how silly the Democrat party has become and their previous votes for it. This D party is flat out socialist/communist, and anyone on the fence is not going for Sleepy, half dead puppet Joe with a nasty witch as the running mate.
6. No female president or running mate wins. Ferrara, Palin, Harris. Think about it.

Game over.

[StackinGreen]

First, Wisconsin's WOW counties are Milwaukee suburbs - traditional base for Dem turnout/enthusiasm ... unfortunately for Team Biden, BLM ran roughshod over some of these places this summer - and the only thing Dems had to say was a tepid call to defund the police.

Now the roosters come home to roost... HERE'S SOME DATA, NOT PROJECTION FROM POLLING and it's nothing like the Dems were looking for...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wisconsin.... Holy crap <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/5Zf5AwHgmi">pic.twitter.com/5Zf5AwHgmi</a></p>&mdash; Real American Politics (@RealAPolitics) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1319761198297079809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It is funny that they think places like MN and WI, previously taken for granted, are anywhere near the locks.

If there is a landslide, it's Trump.

I'm loving this foolishness, I see Jew Silver has another 80% Biden rating up there, lol. thank you Nate, I'm going to win 10k at +150 and more because people listen to your dung analysis even though they should know better after last time.

Thank you. Hi-HO Silver!

[vitterd]

First, Wisconsin's WOW counties are Milwaukee suburbs - traditional base for Dem turnout/enthusiasm ... unfortunately for Team Biden, BLM ran roughshod over some of these places this summer - and the only thing Dems had to say was a tepid call to defund the police.

Now the roosters come home to roost... HERE'S SOME DATA, NOT PROJECTION FROM POLLING and it's nothing like the Dems were looking for...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wisconsin.... Holy crap <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/5Zf5AwHgmi">pic.twitter.com/5Zf5AwHgmi</a></p>&mdash; Real American Politics (@RealAPolitics) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1319761198297079809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That is fake.

[ByeShea]

That is fake.

You mean Russian disinformation?

[vitterd]

You mean Russian disinformation?

You are a twitter loser!! Dems are crushing early vote. It’s not close. Independents also voting huge and not for Trump.

[Itsamazing777]

1. Trump now incumbent: advantage Trump
2. Biden can't even draw 10 people to rallies, Hillary even did better than that with Tim Kaine. People think Hillary was not popular, Sleepy Joe is much less popular: advantage Trump
3. Another way of saying (2) is that Biden is nowhere near Trump in primary domination = base support. That's what Norpoth's model is based on, and he says of course advantage Trump: 91%
4. Similarly, blacks are ditching the Democrat again, and even more. What's worse? A lot of the blacks (mostly male) will not only not vote for Biden, they are pulling the lever for Trump. That's a multiplier; exponential win for Trump.
5. Battleground states are mostly european, tried and true americans, regardless of their attention to how silly the Democrat party has become and their previous votes for it. This D party is flat out socialist/communist, and anyone on the fence is not going for Sleepy, half dead puppet Joe with a nasty witch as the running mate.
6. No female president or running mate wins. Ferrara, Palin, Harris. Think about it.

Game over.

[jt315]

You mean Russian disinformation?

Haha. Yet the dumb f**k actually believed the Steele Dossier was credible .

[Thor4140]

another clown liberal post. Thor i look forward to your post after this election son. Enjoy 4 more years of President Trump son

Who are you again?