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UVA/Virg
I could not make up my mind on UVA/Hokies game. My baseline review says UVA but since it does not take into account momentum, and Hokies are on fire, that pushed it off my card.
Minn/Wisc
I've committed to the Gophers. I don't see it as a "great" bet but there is enough value to warrant a play. Its gameday weekend there (1st one ever for Minn) so it should pump them up and their fans even more than usual. Weather looks like some light rain and 12 mph winds. Both run the ball well. Minn has those "pro" wide-receivers and may be a little more dependent on the pass than Wisc but getting points at home helped push me this way. It should be close but Minn at home + pts
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Ind/Purd
I agree with the Indiana pick. Since Plummer went out, Purdue has not played well, only beating NW by 2 (a bad team) and getting killed by a Wisc team that I don't think is as good as prior teams. Indiana meanwhile is coming off Penn St. (1 TD loss) and Michigan (a masscre). But the Penn St. game was respectable for Ind. The Mich game I think just plays to the fact Mich is has improved significantly since early season (especially offensively). Light rain 12 mph. If weather is going to impact one team more than the other, I would expect it to hurt Purdue more. Their run game is bad and are more dependent on pass game (& without Plummer). I took this game early in the week so I got a favorable line 6.5. It's up to 7. I don't think that would change my mind on this game though.
Army/Haw
I like Army in this game. We've lost a little edge since it's down to +2.5 but if you look at Hawaii's last 5 games and exclude the absolute worst CFB teams (New Mex and UNLV) they've won two by only 2 & 3 points (SJ St. & SD St. both @ Hawaii), and lost by 3, 30, & 22 (2 of these at home as well). At home they either win by 2-3 points (best case) or lose outright. Hawaii throws well but Army Pass-D is pretty good (top 20%). Finally, I think this is Army's last shot at a bowl. They need 1 more win and a win next week vs Navy is not likely to happen. This should inspire the Black Knights to cover if not win.
Couple of other games I like w/ a few notes:
Illnois -8 (I'd take it to -8.5) over NW. NW is not a good team. The only game they've been in in the last month and half is Purdue and that was the first game that Plummer could not play for Purdue, so I look at that as a one off. Meanwhile Illinois has shown a little bit of life the last few weeks since beating Wisky. They did lose to Iowa but that was on the road against a very good team.
Miami -9 vs Duke. But only if Dallas (RB) is playing. I've not got an update on his status today. The issue is this line has climbed quickly so value is going away fast.
UNC Char over Old Dom -9.5 if LeMay (RB) is playing. I've lost some value on this line waiting to hear about Lemay but Old Dom is bad. They've lost to some very bad teams by large margins (Midd Tenn, Fla Int, UAB). Close losses have only been to exceptionally bad teams (UTSA). UNC Char win over Marshall (by 11) last week and over N. Texas (by 1) a few of weeks ago, impressed me albeit they won at home.
That's my brain dump for the games this weekend. Looking at a couple of these yet (Miami, UNC Char).
Sorry about the length. Only 1 CFB today so thought you guys would have time to read and soak on it.
Happy Turkey day guys.
With you on Virginia game, numbers I trust have the Cavs anywhere from half point to 4 pt favs. Also agree doesn't take into account Techs upswing since Hooker took over. Flip flopping on Ole Miss game too, even though the numbers say State it's hard to ignore those rushing stats. No leans on the afternoon games today so I'm thinking of doing an action tease with Ole Miss/Virginia/New Orleans. Banker, Tech can still win for you as long as Cavs cover
Didn't know about the weather, if it holds up I'm on Minny spread with a little on ml
Waffled on Indy, my #1 guy has them as 12pt favs, others I use down around a field goal. At a td or less I'll probably play.
Like Illinois, have them good up to 11.
Army/Hawaii on my sheet but haven't looked at yet. Miami line is short (imo) and they tick all the boxes, but after that debacle last week and with the rb out I bailed.
Charlotte on my list too, up to 10 or so.
Will post more later, relatives waiting on me. Happy Thanksgiving all
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Feel like I’m kinda out on a limb by myself w Hokies, just don’t see the numbers that would make uva a fav? Unless you counting full season I guess but I put far more weight in last month especially in this case where Hokies a completely different game since duke! The only loss being the last second Irish loss and remember booker didn’t play that game or I have no doubt Hokies beat them, and look how Irish been playing since that game!! On other side uva defense has absolutely regressed the last month imo.With you on Virginia game, numbers I trust have the Cavs anywhere from half point to 4 pt favs. Also agree doesn't take into account Techs upswing since Hooker took over. Flip flopping on Ole Miss game too, even though the numbers say State it's hard to ignore those rushing stats. No leans on the afternoon games today so I'm thinking of doing an action tease with Ole Miss/Virginia/New Orleans. Banker, Tech can still win for you as long as Cavs cover
Didn't know about the weather, if it holds up I'm on Minny spread with a little on ml
Waffled on Indy, my #1 guy has them as 12pt favs, others I use down around a field goal. At a td or less I'll probably play.
Like Illinois, have them good up to 11.
Army/Hawaii on my sheet but haven't looked at yet. Miami line is short (imo) and they tick all the boxes, but after that debacle last week and with the rb out I bailed.
Charlotte on my list too, up to 10 or so.
Will post more later, relatives waiting on me. Happy Thanksgiving all
This startling to feel very similar to that one game few weeks ago where every podcast I respected, most the guys I respect all were against me (forget who it was.maybe Baylor), guy I respect as much as anyone played uva, bear and Stanford Steve both talked them up a ton in podcast but don’t think either made them a play. Another espn chalk guy who having great year on uva. Me vs everyone, and man I love the Hokies here!! Although I’d have loved/thought I might get plus money I’m still ok laying under a fg cause I was gonna play tech ml anyways had they been dogs. Them being small favs I think just speaks to I am seeing this right since espn sp and other models and ya’ll make uva favs.,
Far as teasing uva up I guess I can’t argue w +8.5 but I feel better bout Hokies winning. By a td is ok with me!! Let’s see if I continue crushing this conf, acc been really good to me.
I rather have the over than side in the Purdue/Hoosier game assuming weather is ok.
Preying the weather not too bad in minny cause really don’t understand how they dogs to wiscy? This line suggest wiscy be close to 10 at home? That is insane!! I firmly believe gophers the better team, just hope the conditions not bad enough it makes it difficult to throw..Comment -
Definitely not trying to talk you out of Tech, their turnaround is what gives me pause. Strictly going off a capper whose done me well, otherwise I would probably pass. Got 9.5, comfortable with that. Game at Tech, another story. Just wish I'd pulled the trigger before the line moved on Ole Miss, but okay getting 8.
Ole Miss win outright and Hokies <9 we're all winners
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Oh no worries. For better or worse I’m dug the F In on vatech (even used as 2x play in contest!). I certainly could be wrong but I really feel like ppl looking at this uva team as the team they predicted to win this side the acc at beginning and being stubborn (much like myself) on not reading the tea leaves that despite their early beliefs Hokies simply the better team now. I could certainly be wrong but I think I make that same mistake I feel like others might be here where I’ve convinced myself of a side despite evidence might suggest I’m wrong (navy vs Nd comes to mind, lol).,Definitely not trying to talk you out of Tech, their turnaround is what gives me pause. Strictly going off a capper whose done me well, otherwise I would probably pass. Got 9.5, comfortable with that. Game at Tech, another story. Just wish I'd pulled the trigger before the line moved on Ole Miss, but okay getting 8.
Ole Miss win outright and Hokies <9 we're all winners
Plus I got insane history on my side. Hokies don’t lose this game! I dunno if that makes uva more appealing to some but not me! Learn history or risk watching it repeat itself all over your head I say! Lol.
Anyways I’m in middle of cooking way more than I realized and going nuts at moment! Just thought I’d check in! LolComment -
She helping but I’m kinda a control freak and in general like cooking. Not so much or this much shit for double digit ppl. Kinda broke off more than I realized but all good. Everything pretty much good to go now, just drinking w one brother waiting for other who bringing the smoked turkey.Comment -
Any play tonight?Comment -
I played ol miss but I posted them at +3 early in the week. I don’t really feel good bout telling you to play them now that line has flipped and they the favs.. personally don’t think I would play them at this point if ya didn’t grab them sooner. Obviously your choice. Dunno how I feel bout it but don’t like idea of betting into a line after it moves 4 points.Comment -
The only game that goes over today is the game nobody thought would go over. 3rd string qb and terrible bears offense. Typical football. There’s no figuring these games out. Atl/no will prob be 20-13 tooComment -
this is IDENTICAL to the georgia tech/nc state game. i did not play the game, but i watched and was invested in it still cause it did this exact line movement. its fascinating to try and read tbh.
if miss state wins this game i will start keeping a tally of stuff like this. these stand alone prime time games is keyComment -
I often talk about how I don’t take a team who opens dogs and gets bet to favs. Just not much I could do after taking early other than buy off and hope to middle. Big reason why I stopped playing so many mlb overnights years ago. Hate when that happens. I know we trained to think beating close good and it is but there def times it doesn’t thrill me and this instance was one.Comment -
That said lot of game left. I also often say the line doesn’t control outcome on field. I’m full of slightly contradictory feelings on this shit., lolComment -
atleast its going to be a good game!
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This couldn’t have played out any better for those of us who got down early!! So glad no ot! Cash the +3! Woot wootComment -
youre not contradicting yourself cause youre absolutely right. the line doesnt control the outcome out on the field. its just all perspective and how you view the situation.
you're sharp as fuk in your own way to get it early at +3. but when the line starts crossing the 0 in a 1-3 hour span. movement like that imo is not public money.Comment -
glad us both can eat
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I think it happens when everyone on same side, id think it was the bigger sharper money early on then everyone jumping in chasing the nfl and hitting ol piss also. Books prob didn’t initially expect the worse record team not playing for a bowl birth to get so much the action. Lol.
If I was that sharp I woiulda took sip st when they became dogs like AG suggested and hit both sides. That just so hard for me to do even tho it makes absolute sense. Had same situation getting gophers early last week, wouldn’t have mattered cause best nw got was +16 so woulda pushed that side but was prob another where I beat close by enough it be smart to at least bet half initial wager on other side w good shot at middle. I’m just stubborn and hate idea of being right initially and risk give some or all what I thought was a good play back if my original team covers easy.Comment -
yeah i get ya. theres alot of variance too.. for me personally if i had taken ole miss +3 early and the line did this, in my head i feel like im forced to get on miss state +2.5 cause i think theres literally no way you can lose both cause the way the lines are set. you either win both or push and eat a little juice. no way you can get polish middled.Comment -
cant never lose both w nice shot at middle. I just don’t like risking throwing away my initial good bet and turning it into losing juice. Usually just stick w the good number and hope for the best. Easier to do when you been running real good most this entire season. At this point I have a bit of swagger that says “fukk it think I’m right”. Lol. I was little nervous. Glad I told who asked late not to play ol piss after move. Don’t wanna see anyone lose!!Comment
