A buddy of mine on Wall Street calls

[Justin7]

and a lot of these traders are total squares.

They offer me: NFL New Orleans total season wins *including playoff games* under 10.0. Action point grading - so 8 wins, I win 2 units; and if they win 14 with a Super Bowl win, I lose 4 units.

What do you make the fair price on that?

[mathdotcom]

lol joke is on you
Even if you bet your lifetime earnings on these bets and won, they would pay you out with whatever cash they happen to have in their pockets at the time.

Do you think they care about offering you the sharpest line??

Unreal

[Dark Horse]

Take the bet after game 1 (blowout over DET). Sell it back after game 3 (after road games at PHI and BUF). If he's a square trader, he'll take it. By betting it 'live' in this way, his emotions work in favor of your line. Bet it big so a small percentage (10%) is worth it, and the possible loss instills fear in him.

[Justin7]

lol joke is on you
Even if you bet your lifetime earnings on these bets and won, they would pay you out with whatever cash they happen to have in their pockets at the time.

Do you think they care about offering you the sharpest line??

Unreal

Mathdotcom, I really wish you would think just a little bit. You repeatedly act like an authority on things on which you're totally clueless. If you know who was offering this to me, knew the person's reputation or lack thereof, and his/her financial solvency, your opinion might be useful. But you don't. So what gives?

[Justin7]

Take the bet after game 1 (blowout over DET). Sell it back after game 3 (after road games at PHI and BUF). If he's a square trader, he'll take it. By betting it 'live' in this way, his emotions work in favor of your line. Bet it big so a small percentage (10%) is worth it, and the possible loss instills fear in him.

I'm not sure if this will be live, but there have been some crazy offers in the past. Like +100 ML bets on 3-point favorites.

[mathdotcom]

So what's your point?

I bet if your next door neighbour, a mechanic, offered you the same deal you would not post about it. You are insinuating that stock traders should automatically have a certain level of sharpness when it comes to sports betting. One explanation: it is chump change to them. Second explanation: they are not trying to make a living from betting and are truly recreational.

"Squares" (friends) make EV bets against each other all the time even when the fair price is as far away as -200.

What are the other things I am clueless on? Game theory?

[Dark Horse]

Just play him and hit him hard, but not hard enough for him not to come back next year. lol

[Justin7]

So what's your point?

The point was... What is the fair price on this prop? Can't we just get along, and fleece money from any book or anyone that gives us a good number?

[onthewhat]

Wrong forum, Justin.

Players talk is for stiff discussion, bash dropout discussion, and other drama related discussion.

You might be able to get a response in the Think Tank

[mathdotcom]

The point was... What is the fair price on this prop? Can't we just get along, and fleece money from any book or anyone that gives us a good number?

Actually that was the second point of your post. I was commenting on the first point.
How much action are they willing to take, J?

[Justin7]

Thanks, onthewhat. I sometimes get some good stuff in here. Perhaps that's wishful thinking for a Friday

[Justin7]

Actually that was the second point of your post. I was commenting on the first point.
How much action are they willing to take, J?

5k/point was available to one of my partners. I obviously have significantly less (cost of being in a partnership).

[jjgold]

I think Mathy was saying if stock market tumbles like it will be end if football and he has long postions he will stiff you if you win the bet.

Family and best friends alike will stiff

bet with licensed books only and not friends where you can lose a friendship.

Mathy excellent posts

[xyz]

My guess at the fair price is over 10 wins -140. I may be over estimating the win percentage in the playoffs. Since you are taking the under, it should work to your favor

[Flying Dutchman]

Never understood why sharps do football futures. Why tie up your money if you are +EV per game?

[durito]

Under 10 -175

[mathdotcom]

Never understood why sharps do football futures. Why tie up your money if you are +EV per game?

They don't.

[durito]

It depends on how big your bankroll is.

Or if you can bet them on credit.

[Flying Dutchman]

It depends on how big your bankroll is.

Or if you can bet them on credit.

Credit? So you go down to "Sharky's Bank" for this?

...explains why Bread is a cripple, I guess...

[durito]

You use a local or online book that offers credit. Pretty simple. Well assuming you can find such an out. I used to have one, but no more.

[Flying Dutchman]

You use a local or online book that offers credit. Pretty simple. Well assuming you can find such an out. I used to have one, but no more.

OK, so booking at Nicky's...before the cops busted his door down and he went "offshore"

[4TH AND STUPID]

new orleans defense is MUCH better and MUCH quicker than last year.

they will win the division.

i dont really care to read any post in this thread , just wanted to give people a heads up.

[showtime2000]

Saints finished last year 8-8...... 6 of the 8 losses were by 5 points or less with a very bad defense, horrific secondary, injuries to Bush, Colston, Porter, Shockey, McKenzie, etc. They had a poor Defensive Co-ordinator.

What did they do this offseason, brought in Jabari Greer from Buffalo(top secondary), Darren Sharper, Malcolm Jenkins(1st round pick that many experts say could be the steal of the draft), Tracey Porter is back healthy(Top DB from last year), and the big free agent move, Greg Williams as Def. COordinator......

Aswell, look at their schedule this season versus their division's schedule,
-Tampa Bay....1st 7 games, Dal,@Buf,NYG,@Was,@Phil,Car,NE...Do you really think they can win 1 game their first 7?
-Carolina.......their tough games are @ NE, @ DAL, @ NYG
-Atlanta........kinda hard to see Atl repeat like last year, alot of teams will be ready for them this year
-NO......they have NYG, DAL and NE all home games!


I really like the Saints chances this year. The synergy between SP and Brees is awesome, all tough games, besides Phil, is on the home court, this is the best team they have assembled in year's, the Secondary went from being the worst to possibly on of the better ones in 1 offseason, their offense is awesome........Let's see.

[Iceman]

For what it is worth I think the Saints are underrated and a legit team in the NFC this year.