Gambling tip #7.3a...............

[pavyracer]

If the games are always 9 to 9.5 for the last 10 years then how did the oddmakers adjust lines in 2004.

[MonkeyF0cker]

buddy, i don't come in here to hear myself talk.. did you not read post #30 just now? tell me where that is not accurate.. up 30,000 the last 5 yrs just betting bos over at fenway...

i think you owe me an apology..

You forgot to mention that you have to place all of your bets with a book that doesn't charge vig. 237-208 is not up 30 units, retard. Your stupidity is astounding.

[mathdotcom]

By the way

average home total in 1999: 10.16
average home total in 2004: 9.44

For the record I do not buy Nicky's theory that bookmakers do not account for Fenway. The average home total at Fenway over past 10 years is ~ 9.7, whereas the average total for Boston home&away is 9.5. Seems they count Fenway as worth an extra 0.4 of a run compared to the average ballpark.

[Nicky Santoro]

hey loser, if you knew better, you'd know that matchy is always +104, -101, +106, etc... not -110 like you lay on every game lol.

get a life loser.. you cant beat me at this game.. i would beat you in every gambling argument, just like i did in the past 236 arguments with you..

i gotta run boys.. so i cant argue with any of you for awhile.. later..btw, i am right.. fenway overs are gold at the best price..

[MonkeyF0cker]

No wonder I don't post here much any more. I actually feel sorry for this stupid fuk.

[smitch124]

[durito]

would you like to compare databases nicky?

[dwaechte]

So basically what Nicky is saying is that an unprofitable trend over the past 5 years is extremely profitable when you bet it at Matchy and line shop. Excellent insight.

Nicky, I suggest taking every home team in NFL next season... It's hitting under 50% the past 10 years but if you play every game at Matchy you'll be rolling in the cash.

[donjuan]

Two words: Bayesian inference.

Epic fail by you Nicky.

[mathdotcom]

Add another over to the list.

Has Nicky ever lost a bet??

[Nicky Santoro]

Add another over to the list.

Has Nicky ever lost a bet??

mathy, these losers here are all broke and don't have a pot to piss in.. any of you losers want to go head to head with me to see who has made more money lifetime gambling? i bet none of you will go against me cause I would out do you all by 25x. that's right, i will bet my bottom dollar i have made 25x more money gambling than any of you losers here..

you know why, because i know my fukkin shit and don't look for reasons to disagree just to try to look smarter than me.. if i said it's sunny outside and it was, you losers would come in here and say it's raining just to disagree with me.

anyways, ANOTHER OVER in boston.. i wil now go back to counting my cash while you losers go send more money to your books so you have enough to bet with tonight.

overs are up big time over the last 5 yrs while playing at best #..

you're welcome with this over.. i must leave..i have to go count my money again.. later.

[Hirtcha]

Send me your book, please

[yisman]

So basically what Nicky is saying is that an unprofitable trend over the past 5 years is extremely profitable when you bet it at Matchy and line shop. Excellent insight.

Nicky, I suggest taking every home team in NFL next season... It's hitting under 50% the past 10 years but if you play every game at Matchy you'll be rolling in the cash.

Damn straight.

[Nicky Santoro]

1st game back at Fenway, and what do you know... another over.. they haven't gone under since this thread.

boys, i don't come in here to hear myself talk.. you should take this advice seriously.. FENWAY overs are GOLD.. totals are underpriced there.

[onthewhat]

[fiveteamer]

When Nicky tosses you a bone, he doesn't want to hear if it tastes good or not.

[yisman]

one game. Little early to be celebrating, I'd say.

If you bet straight overs in Fenway for the rest of the season, I'd say you'd end up in the red.

[Regul8er]

Why do people continually try and mess with Mr. Santoro?? Like I said in an earlier post, he once participated in the running of the bulls.....and walked.

[Nicky Santoro]

you tell em, regulator..

[Rich Boy]

Nicky Santoro is the best handicapper on this site

He bets at matchbook, to get the best number -- good move
He says to "beat the closing number" -- very good move
He says to play UNDERS at the best number -- another very good move

If he says to bet OVERS at fenway, im pretty sure its for a good reason.

[FreeFall]

Ok so 2005 to 2009 season
185-177-31

At Fenway park, the over has come through 51.1% (05-09 seasons)

say you got +103 avg odds on the over, which wouldn't be easy you'd only be up 13.3 units... for four years. Money inflates faster than that.

[floridagolfer]

the last 5 yrs are up big on the overs at boston.. we're going over a larger sample size.

fenway overs have been money since 2004.

In the last three years the overs are exactly three games over .500 at Fenway. You won't make any money betting that.

Since 1997 the overs are 28 games under .500 at Fenway. You won't make any money betting that, either.

You're dead wrong on this premise. Try again.

[Nicky Santoro]

say you got +103 avg odds on the over, which wouldn't be easy you'd only be up 13.3 units... for four years. Money inflates faster than that.

13.3 units is still money.. PLUS, it'd be more than that cause when a total is 9.5 flat, if you shop around, you can get ov 9 -112 at some book.. so all those losses in the last 4 yrs when it lands 5-4, are now pushes and some pushes turn to wins.. like when it's 9 flat, i'm sure you can find a 8.5 ov -112.. the key is to shop shop shop..

so in reality, you are probably up 32.3 units instead of 13.3 units.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Umm. Why would that be limited to Fenway overs, Nicky? This thread is a bit pointless.

[yisman]

exactly. You could apply that to anything. If you shop around and get the absolutely best price every time, you'd be up doing lots of things.

[Nicky Santoro]

true, but some parks have totals too low like in Fenway and books don't pick this up.

i remember back in the early to mid 90's, i swear every game in L.A. was ending 2-1, 1-0, 3-1.. hardly any runs were being scored.. it's like the air was killing the ball, and every total was always 7.5 or 8 only.. and i was cashing in big time every game.. it was a licence to print money.. i made some nice cash during that time..

[Nicky Santoro]

jesus christ, how many in a row is that? is it 5 in a row, 6 in a row, or 7 in a row now since i posted this thread of fenway overs.. not one under yet since this thread started.

boys, i don't come in here to hear myself talk.. nicky santoro knows his shit.. if you boys would listen to your old pal nicky more often, maybe you deadbeats wouldn't be broke and would be making money with me..

this is a license to print money boys.. They don't call me nicky santoro for nothing..

a fukkin license to print money. it's like having your own money printing machine in your own house...

[yisman]

ummm, Rick Porcello got ejected in the second. You got lucky there.

[Regul8er]

Nicky Santoro doesn't T-Bag people....he potato sacks ya!

[TPowell]

Santuro, I want the jinx pal

[yisman]

jesus christ, how many in a row is that? is it 5 in a row, 6 in a row, or 7 in a row now since i posted this thread of fenway overs.

Nicky, there have been only three games played in Fenway since you posted this thread.

You're not very good with numbers, are you?

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky, there have been only three games played in Fenway since you posted this thread.

You're not very good with numbers, are you?

that's right, 3 straight since i posted.. the last 6 straight now at fenway, including the whole 4 game series vs OAK.

boys, this really is a license to print money. those totals are extremely underpriced. the balls fly in fenway..

[Nicky Santoro]

how many is that now in a row of overs in Fenway.. that's right boys, 7 straight overs at fenway now..

boys, you must listen to me more often. i am a winner lifetime at gambling, not like some you deadbeats.. i know my shit, boys.. this is a licence to print money.. it's like having your own money printing machine in your basement..

this is too easy..

you're welcome..

yours truly,

Professional Gambler

Nicky Santoro.

[betplom]

mathy, these losers here are all broke and don't have a pot to piss in.. any of you losers want to go head to head with me to see who has made more money lifetime gambling? i bet none of you will go against me cause I would out do you all by 25x. that's right, i will bet my bottom dollar i have made 25x more money gambling than any of you losers here..

you know why, because i know my fukkin shit and don't look for reasons to disagree just to try to look smarter than me.. if i said it's sunny outside and it was, you losers would come in here and say it's raining just to disagree with me.

anyways, ANOTHER OVER in boston.. i wil now go back to counting my cash while you losers go send more money to your books so you have enough to bet with tonight.

overs are up big time over the last 5 yrs while playing at best #..

you're welcome with this over.. i must leave..i have to go count my money again.. later.

Nicky, I see you are still making papa proud.

Keep up the good work.

[Rich Boy]

Thanks nicky, i was an idiot and didnt bet this today... ****

Im throwing away free money betting on the fkn Nationals.