If you believe the Chargers are definitely going to win

VegasDave · 01-07-07, 08:48 PM

Doesn't look too bad, but no team is safe in the playoffs against the Patriots...

Besides, if the Ravens beat the Colts big and SD narrowly beats NE, what do you think the spread/ML would look like in the next game?

Oh well, I'm in the midst of my second straight terrible playoff year, what do I know

imgv94 · 01-07-07, 08:52 PM

This is for anyone who believes the Chargers are very likely to win this game.

A big bettor could bet $10000 to win $14000 on SD AFC
and then next week

Bet $10000 on either Balt or Indy at Plus odds to make it a win-win situation..

Seems fair to me..

Sam Odom · 01-07-07, 08:58 PM

Big IF but your scenario is correct

DrSlamm · 01-07-07, 09:03 PM

that same big bettor could just bet XXX on the chargers this weekend lol and only pay juice ONCE

BuddyBear · 01-07-07, 09:04 PM

I like SD....but i am not betting these days.

imgv94 · 01-07-07, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by DrSlamm

that same big bettor could just bet XXX on the chargers this weekend lol and only pay juice ONCE

Spread is -5 and ML is -220...

Note the title was if you believe Chargers definitely win the game..

Plenty of people will be betting Chargers -5.. So why not put a little on Chargers to win AFC then bet against them in next game??

Ganchrow · 01-07-07, 09:16 PM

By taking the Chargers at +140 (decimal 2.4000) to win the AFC Championship, a bettor is effectively parlaying the Chargers over the Patriots (current Pinnacle ML of -220, or decimal 1.4545) and the Chargers over whomever their opponent might in the AFC Championship.

This means that by purchasing this future one is effectively betting the Chargers in the finals at a line of about -154 (2.4/1.4545 = 1.65, US odds of -153.85).

So putting it all together imgv's bet certainly makes sense for a player who believes both:

-220 is not an overly disadvantageous line for SD over NE
assuming SD wins against NE, he won't be able to get better odds on SD than -154

Notice that the decision to make this bet does not hinge on the player believing that SD is a near-lock to win over NE. If a player did in fact believe this and had no view on the Championship game, he would almost certainly be better off solely betting the SD/NE ML so that he would avoid paying extra juice AND limit his overall risk. All that's important in making this decision is the belief that -154 would be a good line on SD in the Championship were they to make it that far and that the -220 line is not overly unfair.

imgv94 · 01-07-07, 09:20 PM

If SD wins impressively they might be -180-200 in the next game.. Very possible sir..

imgv94 · 01-07-07, 09:20 PM

Ganchrow we will need you for the Bears thread as well as someone believes my advice is cancer..

Razz · 01-07-07, 09:39 PM

If you believe a team coached by Marty Schottenheimer is "definitely" going to beat a team coached by Bill Bellichick, it's time to re-examine yourself.
Should win? Probably. Definitely? Hell no.

imgv94 · 01-07-07, 09:45 PM

Plenty of bettors will be taking the Chargers win by more than 5 points...

Seattle Slew · 01-07-07, 11:21 PM

I don't care what anyone in SD says in public, believe me, the LAST team SD or its fans want to play off the bye is New England. They'd rather play Baltimore in this round.

NE is very dangerous. They should have beaten Denver last year in the divisional round, and have won plenty of road games in the playoffs.

Belichick's defense vs. a rookie quarterback? Tomlinson will need a huge game.

I like NE outright, 27-20.

Originally posted by Razz

If you believe a team coached by Marty Schottenheimer is "definitely" going to beat a team coached by Bill Bellichick, it's time to re-examine yourself.
Should win? Probably. Definitely? Hell no.

Dark Horse · 01-07-07, 11:35 PM

NE is overrated. Much of their legacy is rooted in their lack of competition to qualify for the playoffs. Basically they only have to get up for 3 or 4 games in the postseason.

This year they are extremely inconsistent and hardly battle-tested. Compare to Chargers who are consistent and battle-tested.

Last season the Chargers took them apart on the road. This year the Chargers are better, and the Pats weaker. I know a lot of people are emotionally attached to the Pats, but it's time to close the book on these guys. There is no Patriots post season magic. They beat the Jets. The Jets.

Chargers won't even have to peak, and I don't expect that they will. LT should beat Pats by himself.

Seattle Slew · 01-08-07, 12:49 AM

Tomlinson has had some big games against New England, but remember they crushed NE last year with Drew Brees at quarterback.

Remember what the Pats did to Roethlisberger in the AFC title game 2 years ago when he was a rookie.

Originally posted by Dark Horse

NE is overrated. Much of their legacy is rooted in their lack of competition to qualify for the playoffs. Basically they only have to get up for 3 or 4 games in the postseason.

This year they are extremely inconsistent and hardly battle-tested. Compare to Chargers who are consistent and battle-tested.

Last season the Chargers took them apart on the road. This year the Chargers are better, and the Pats weaker. I know a lot of people are emotionally attached to the Pats, but it's time to close the book on these guys. There is no Patriots post season magic. They beat the Jets. The Jets.

Chargers won't even have to peak, and I don't expect that they will. LT should beat Pats by himself.

Dark Horse · 01-08-07, 01:48 AM

I'm just trying to keep my opinion balanced. lol

Suddenly everybody is talking about the Patriots playoff record, forgetting that they showed very little this season.

Razz · 01-08-07, 02:10 AM

I have a hard time betting this game honestly. I wouldn't be surprised to see a SD 20-point win, but I also think they could choke it away. I just don't see any "definites" here.

Illusion · 01-08-07, 02:13 AM

Originally posted by Razz

I have a hard time betting this game honestly. I wouldn't be surprised to see a SD 20-point win, but I also think they could choke it away. I just don't see any "definites" here.

Same here Razz, but I do have a lean towards the under. The side is just up in the air.

imgv94 · 01-08-07, 03:40 AM

I'm taking the Chargers.. Expecting line to go down and then I will pounce..

Dead Money · 01-08-07, 05:53 AM

I think the Pats keep this game close.

These guys have been there before.

Pretty sure that they will do everything to shut down the run and make PR beat them.

No way that Belicheck lets Tomlinson(mvp) beat them. I see 8 men in the box alot and if the rookie qb is going to beat them than so be it.

imgv94 · 01-08-07, 06:06 AM

Starting a thread explaining why the Chargers are the play bro!!