Who is following all the FIBA U18, U19, and U20 games?

[MilfDriller]

Anybody following these? Have any angles?


Ukraine U20 Men's team can't buy a bucket and have gone 3-0 for the under on their last 3 games. Also 0-3 ATS as they have been getting clobbered in last 3 games.

[MilfDriller]

139.5 at Pinny
141 at Greek

This seems too easy.. just like the under in their 3 previous games. Are they adjusting the totals or what?

Not sure what's going on here.

[MilfDriller]

Went with the under 140. I don't see how Ukraine is going to even sniff 20 in any one of their quarters.

[flyingillini]

You are a hero for bringing this to light. Im pounding it

[MilfDriller]

I hope I don't cost you cash, bro.

Only 13 pts midway thru the 1st... then a spurt to end the qrtr.

19-16, End 1. I'm surprised by those 19 pts...

[MilfDriller]

Good news is that Ukr is shooting 70% thru first 11 min of game... that cannot hold up.

[MilfDriller]

19 12 ... 31
16 17 ... 33 HT

64 pts. 76 spare for a push in the 2half. I think UKR scored like 2-4 pts over a 5 minute segment of that quarter. They are trash. W/o those 3 balls in the 1H (they hit 4), they'd be in the 20's this half.

[MilfDriller]

19 12 11 12 ... 54
16 17 19 13 ... 65

Man, that went almost 30 pts under. Good Lord. Time to thoroughly investigate all these FIBA tourneys going on right now. These lines are looser than all hell.

I just don't get it. Why aren't they tighter?

[MilfDriller]

Looking at the Japan/Canada game tomorrow morning.

138.5 ... seems really high to me.

Canada giving up 40 pts/game so far. The Japanese are a deliberate people and don't play crazy jungle ball. They scored 85 against Tunisia, but Tunisia is God-aweful. They only managed 64 vs. Russia, and that was with a 25-pt 4th quarter. Gotta believe Japan is getting 55-60 max. And I believe Canada will be at 70-75 absolute max. Plus this is the 3rd game in 3 days and this is for seeding... expect low scoring and b/c of that Japan will have a good shot to get the cover. But the total looks rather high to me.

Any way this is sliced, this is another loose line.

[MilfDriller]

I keep looking at this and I don't think the 3 ball will have any place in this game. Neither team can bomb it and this especially limits Japan and tips for the under. I'm trying to rationalize an over for this game but I can't find a way to do it in any fashion.

[MilfDriller]

141 at Pinny
169.5 at Greek ... must be a typo

[shhhhh22]

Ya Corrected at the Greek 139.5 now.

This is great info man Keep it up. I'm thinking of tailing you on the under.

BTW: Where are you finding stats for this league??

[MilfDriller]

Keep looking at this game, but it's a no-go. Thailand/Czech game, however, looks better. Total of 139 is solid. Thai have dropped single digit quarters in their games and have the obvious inability to score pts. Avg'ing aprox 10 pts/qrtr. 97-42 is the estimated score. But again, 3rd game in 3 days... lean towards the under and I don't think CZE is gonna roll up 97 pts on em.

Thai -- 08, 13, 07, 14
Cze -- 25, 19, 23, 20 ... 33, 32, 30, 34 ... 129 (87-42)

13 and 14 pts in those qrtrs seem generous. Give em 3 more... 45. Give Cze 93 pts... 93-45, 138

Just seems high. Thai did score 3 pts in one quarter. And w/o that 20 pt qrtr they got in the 4th vs. BRA, they'd likely be avg'ing about 8.5/pts a qrtr. They are easily the lowest scoring team in the tourney and with the least talent. Makes sense.

[MilfDriller]

on the fiba sites I'm looking at all the fiba tourneys ... u19, u20, u18.... Pinny perfectly shows the lines and divisions for these tourneys. There are TONS of games.... and even if Jesus Christ was making the lines on these huge spreads and totals, there are bound to be many that are way off.

http://thailand2009.fiba.com/pages/eng/fe/09/u19women/p/schedule.html

when you look at the pictures of these games... there is no one in the stands. it's crazy. I see real opportunity here.

[MilfDriller]

Well, my final take on R3 for Women U19 is this:

THA/CZE Under 139.0
TUNISIA +50.0

Russia has already won their 1st 2 games and the pressure is off for the 3rd game. They know they will win to go 3-0 and they can do so easily even if it's that time of the month. Russian teams have a history of not performing to their level. Anyways, they have little motivation for this game even though it gives them what they want for the next round (they will not be taking Tunisia seriously). Canada was coming in off a loss before they played Tunisia so they needed to come back strong. I feel the line is too high (maybe 42.5 is good) and is an overreaction of Tunisia's performance vs. Canada.

Russia lead by max of 17 at End 1.
Russia lead by max of 31 at HT

Everybody resting in the 2half and Tunisia loses by around 39-44 pts.

Also, the fact that this is an early game gives more to the cause.

[MilfDriller]

Tunisia game ... 16-8 , End 1

30-10 , 5:44 in the 2nd

Too early to tell.

[shhhhh22]

Half time 41-12 dang. It's truly amazing when you are going to have to sweat a +49 Basketball Line! lol

[MilfDriller]

36-10 , 1:22 ... only 2 pts this quarter.
38-10 , 1:04
41-12 , HT

absolutely hideous. down 29 at the half

[MilfDriller]

well, one never knows. it all depends on what Russia does. 3rd game, already clinched their spot with 3-0 ... this has got to be time for the subs in the 2half.

if TUN can lose the 3Q by 10 or less, I think it's got a good shot. but, then again, TUN is truly terrible.

[shhhhh22]

you're not kidding FOUR points in the 2nd quarter. a team of 5 year olds in a rec league would score more than that.

[MilfDriller]

43-12 , 9:00
47-15 , 7:40
49-15 , 7:00
52-15 , 6:30 .... yep, this game is toast
54-15 , 6:10 .... 39 pt lead. impossible. only chance now is a typhoon in Southeast Asia

[shhhhh22]

unreal. and I thought the chicks in the WNBA were a joke

[MilfDriller]

57-17 , 5:20 (40)
60-17 , 4:50 (43)
60-18 , 4:00 (42)
61-18 , 3:20 (43)
63-19 , 3:00 (44)
64-19 , 2:20 (45)
66-21 , 1:44 (45)
68-21 , 0:49 (47)
70-23 , End 3 (47)

08 04 11 xx
16 25 29 xx

Think I would've had a chance w/o that 3Q. I've seen crazy things happen... if Tunisia somehow covers... this would have to be up there.

[MilfDriller]

70-23 , 9:10 (47) ... TUN is 2/10 on FT"s... shit, that's the cover right there
70-25 , 8:50 (45)
72-25 , 8:30 (47)
74-27 , 7:30 (47)
76-29 , 6:30 (47) ... starting to believe this is possible... hmmm

[MilfDriller]

76-29 , 6:00 (47)
80-33 , 4:14 (47) ... and the dance is on.

[MilfDriller]

82-33 , 3:36 (49) .. TUN doing massive subbing. Uh oh. Wonder how bad their bench can be?

87-33 ... 54 .... ballgame

[MilfDriller]

that pick was absolute shit

[MilfDriller]

93-41 , ft (52)

[shhhhh22]

Unreal... craziest part is Tunisia doubled their 2nd and 3rd quarter in the 4th.... where the hell was that all game

[MilfDriller]

Gonna go ahead and do the Canada under:

CAN/JAP Under 141.0

[MilfDriller]

line has dipped down to 137.5 at Pinny. that's nice

[MilfDriller]

nice. looks like an instant loser.

22-13 , 1:15 in 1Q

[MilfDriller]

42-23, HT ... 75 spare

Japan can't score and are getting obliterated on the boards 27-8.

[MilfDriller]

All of the Asian teams are getting supremely dominated. Spain was up by about 18 or so on the US and they trounced Mali. The US gets a -56 line for Mali.... they had a -36 or so line for China... and Spain only gets a -26 line. This may be another 3-0 ATS scenario for the 1st round.... after all, Spain is killing it.

[MilfDriller]

Alright, rolling with Spain. Have to think they'll be up by 18+ at HT.... and then clearing 8 pts in the 2H will be cake.

SPAIN -26.0 > CHINA