Question about a middle

[zippo]

Hey guys,

I bet a two team 6 point teaser yesterday with LSU -2.5 and Ohio State -1.

LSU won huge so that one is a winner and now I'm left with Ohio St. -1 to win the whole bet.

My question is should I now bet Florida +7 and try to middle the game or stick with my original bet?

It would be cool to win double my money by middling, especially when it is basically a no lose situation.

Either I let it ride and either win or lose or try for the middle, win double, or break even. I would kind of get pissed if I went for the middle and Ohio St blows them out cause then I would break even basically when I could have won money, but if Florida does lose by small margin then I could beat the books both ways.

What would you guys do here? I keep going back and forth and can't make up my mind.

[SBR_John]

I'd play Florida on the money line at +250 for about 1/3 of what you would make on the teaser.

The problem with playing the middle is you could and will likely end up with zero. You risked too much to come away with zero.

[BuddyBear]

FLA ML is a risky proposition....a socre like OSU 17 UF 16 will screw you big time

Just to let you know....we've already had four 1 pt games in the first 29 games (approximately 1 out of every 7 games are decided by 1 pt).

OSU 35 MISS 34
BC 25 NAVY 24
Miami 21 NEV 20
BSU 43 OKL 42

[SBR_John]

I'd chance it but good point Buddy.

You could sell points and get Florida +3.5 +140 to eliminate that possibility. But I wouldnt give up the 1.10 to cover that remote possibility.

[Ganchrow]

Unless you have a view on the game itself or unless you really need to safeguard the at-risk funds just stick with the positive expectation position you already have.

Without either an actual view on the game or a pressing need to safeguard the money you've already risked, your "hedge" would be little more than a blind gamble at a house edge of 2.346%.

[Justin7]

You have a good bet. never hedge unless something changed.

If you do hedge, wait until an hour before game time, and play Florida on the ML small.

[Arilou]

I couldn't agree with Ganchrow and Justin7 more.

You made the teaser for a reason, so no reason to abandon it now. You'd just be making a negative expectation bet, assuming you think the lines on the game in question are all fair. If you now feel as a handicapper that the ML on Florida is inflated, or that +7.5 -115 at WSEX (or whatever else you can find) is a good bet on its own, don't let the teaser stop you, but if you want Florida on the ML now there are three explanations: You like Florida's chances OR you shouldn't have bet the teaser OR you bet the teaser too big. Learn for next time which one it was.

[chano]

Let it ride as is . You are a 3-1 fav. You clearly have the best bet. Look at it this way, If you were able to bet on Ohio St. at -1 laying -105, would you ? If your answer is yes, then there you go.

[SBR_John]

If it were me, even knowing I got the best of the odds, I'd hedge out the at risk amount of the teaser. But in the long run you will make more by not hedgeing because as Ganch explains you are giving juice to the house.

[Jay Edgar]

Good thoughts here and one more thing.

Don't forget about halftime betting and even live betting.

Going in with OSU -1 -105 is powerful. How you feel about your bet may change after you watch some of the game, half the game, or more. (Or your view decideldly may not change, in which case you sit tight, happily, and win your full bet.) A favorite like OSU, even if they seem to struggle, should have runs where they look threatening enough to drive the live wagering to a point where you could buy back against them at a decent price if you were so inclined. But, as the others have said, it only makes sense from a pure EV standspoint if you don't like your OSU -1 -105 so much anymore, or the available Florida number can stand on its own as value in your mind.

[Dogpounder]

I love middles!!!

If you have the cool calculating demeanor of a machine, you should take the advice you were given of the extra 2.3% penalty for doing it, and pass.

If you're saddled with the reality of being human, and become a worse capper when you lose (or win) too much, do what's psychologically correct for you, at that time.

If you think a final score of Ohio St 27-24 would really bother you if you don't try to middle, and this result would throw you off enough to make you a 2.4% worse handicapper on your next wager (huh?), then you should do what's right for your psyche. Even if it is the lesser of 2 evils.

[Sam Odom]

Don't forget about halftime betting and even live betting.

what he said

in reality u dont have a teaser bet any longer so if u like OSU many would kill to get them at -1

[zippo]

Hey guys, what's up?

I have decided to stick with my guns and ride out the bet, so I'm on Ohio St. -1 to close out the original teaser.

I feel good about this one, but the only thing that freaked me out is that I just saw a stat that says Ohio St. is 0-7 vs the SEC in bowl games. That and Heisman winners haven't had much success in Bowl games after winning the trophy.

So I'm going against these trends and ready to prove the professionals wrong. I'm ready to get this game started.

LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!

Wish me luck.

Good luck to the rest of you as well. Should be a good game I hope.

[zippo]

Well I picked the wrong team. I can't believe how bad Ohio State looks and how good Florida looks.

Next year, I'm going to bet against the Heisman trophy winner in the bowl game.

I probably should have tried for the middle, but I figured Ohio State would win and that it wouldn't have mattered since I would have won my original bet anyway. WRONG!

IDIOTS!!!

Thanks for the advice guys, I appreciate it. In the end, I got greedy and just wanted to win my original bet, instead of breaking even, which I thought had a great chance to come in. I still think I did the right thing by not middling, just picked the wrong team, plus middles are hard to win both sides.

Thanks again.

PS, I plan on winning my money back on that one and then winning more.