VSIN WEEKLY APRIL 20th
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2021 Playbook NFL Draft Complete Recap
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Brad Powers' 2021 College Football Preview https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-2...JXitBQ2rB/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook 2021 Football Preview Guide https://www.playbooksports.com/2021yb/
VSiN 2021 College Football Betting Guide VSIN 2021 College Football Betting Guide.pdf - Google DriveComment -
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VSIN Pro-Football Betting Guide
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C/O Ralph Michaels
Betting #MLB Fav's of 200 or more?......Here is the season-by-season breakdown of those big Fav's! Since 2004 this season is the MOST PROFITABLE & second best pct-wise (78.4%)!
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C/O Tuley's Takes
Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams finished 3-2 in NFL Week 1 with the Raiders (+ 4) on Monday Night Football to go with the Panthers -3,5 and 49ers -7.5 (contest lines don't change after being posted at 10 a.m. PT Thursday). The Washington Football Team lost as the No. 1 choice at Circa as did the Packers.
Circa Survivor, which drew a field of 4,080 with a guaranteed $6 million prize, is down to 3,397 after Week 1. Three contestants used the Raiders on MNF while 19 were eliminated on the Ravens. None of the Top 4 picks lost, but these did: Jaguars (179), Falcons (163), Bills (101), Vikings (75), Patriots (62), Packers (29), Titans (22), Washington (19), Ravens (19), Giants (2), Jets (1), Lions (1) and Bears (1).
SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in NFL Week 1 with Raiders (+ 4.5) upsetting BAL on MNF to join 49ers -7.5 as the winners (contest lines don't change after being posted Wednesday afternoon at the SuperBook NV. No. 1 pick Washington lost along with the Patriots and Packers.
A final count hasn't been announced for William Hill’s College Pick'em, which had a $1,000 entry fee with a guaranteed prize pool of $1 million, but there were only 452 entrants that made selections for last Saturday’s first week of games, so there’s an overlay in excess of half a million dollars for players in that contest. Only one contestant went a perfect 8-0 in Week 1.Comment -
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C/O VSIN NEWSLETTER
Note the NFL Lookahead Lines
One of the biggest gifts that sportsbooks give to us as NFL bettors is a peek at the following week. Lookahead lines give us an idea of where a game should be lined based on the oddsmakers’ power ratings and what we’ve seen to that point. There are always adjustments and swings due to injuries or the results from the current week.
Take, for example, Raiders -1 against the Dolphins as a lookahead line for Week 3. The Raiders looked quite impressive beating the Steelers on the road, whereas the Dolphins looked pretty bad against Buffalo and also lost Tua Tagovailoa. While the switch from Tua to Jacoby Brissett isn’t worth a lot to the line, the performances from the two teams were and the line is now Raiders -4.
Sportsbooks do this to milk information out of sharp bettors, who are primarily the only ones that bet a week in advance. It gives them an idea of where the money may be coming in so that they can adjust the line accordingly and have a better number by Sunday night. Even if you aren’t ready to fire a week in advance, you should still take stock in that line and see where it was and try to understand why it was there.
Sometimes we get overreactions to the results. It is a hard bet to make, but the New York Jets went from +7.5 on the lookahead line all the way up to +11. Some sharp bettors have hit that line and it has come back down to +10 or +10.5, an indication of an overreaction to Denver’s win against Jacksonville and New York’s ugly loss to New England.
Remember, the sharp bettors that influence the market bet numbers, not teams. If a line should be 8 and it is 11, it doesn’t matter if that team is the Jets, Jaguars, Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, Browns, or Lions.
It is a good time to look at the Week 4 lines and get an idea of what the books are thinking before Week 3 kicks off.Comment -
American Turf Club Sept. 25th - Oct. 25th
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The NHL regular season begins on Tuesday night. Maybe it isn’t your favorite betting market and it could potentially be a sport that you know nothing about. It could also be the complete opposite and your favorite betting market and one where you excel. I feel like it is worth your while to dig into this season.
All sports betting markets are driven by sharp bettors that have earned enough respect from the books to create line movements. Hockey is maybe the most obvious of these markets. There are groups and individuals out there that obviously mold and shape the markets. They’ll do a lot of it with the overnight lines and then again during or after the morning skate when lineup information comes available.
There isn’t a lot of public money in the hockey markets, so sharp bettors really do dictate where the lines go. As a result, you can see pretty early on which side they are on just by looking at your preferred odds screen.
A lot of the sharpest hockey minds are modelers, so they have elaborate spreadsheets that spit out an expectation based on all of the chess pieces in the game. They’ll have different projections for each goaltender and also incorporate a lot of advanced metrics and analytics into the equation.
Don’t just blindly tail what the influential masses are doing, but you should be able to look at the odds screen early on and isolate teams that these groups are high on and teams that they are looking to fade. Overnight line moves are good indicators of these teams, especially if it isn’t a back-to-back situation and the goaltenders are known with a high degree of certainty.
Adding another market to your repertoire can make you stronger as a bettor and give you more opportunities to make money. The early-season NHL market is typically pretty inefficient because the books are far more worried about the football seasons, MLB Playoffs and upcoming NBA season. We’ll see some big line moves over the first couple of weeks. It is a great time to strike if you know what you are doing.Comment -
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DRF Sports College Football Tip sheet
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DRF Sports NFL Football Tip Sheet
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Lamar Jackson has went OVER his passing yards prop in ALL five games this season
Week 1: Over 203.5 yards 
Week 2: Over 217.5 yards Week 3: Over 220.5 yards Week 4: Over 204.5 yards Week 5: Over 227.5 yards
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