Kentucky Derby
3-5-8-11
Exacta Box
3-5-8-11
Exacta Box
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Derby is wide open I hearComment -
Putting $1 on ever horse so I guarantee I cash a winning ticketComment -
Holding Future on 8-Tacitus +800, may you can still find those fixed odds (at least) somewhere.Comment -
Improbable to place.
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Rain rain rain
sloppy trackComment -
I just bought Houston Rocket -3.
Am considering picking up GS +140 and looking for Hou as a dog LIVE.
It might not take much to send Houston to plus money, then again, because of just that, it's possible Houston never trails from the start...
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Avs/sharks over but very confused why all a sudden this game was a juiced 5.5 when every other been 6?? Suckering me in maybe? I dunno but sharks score 3+ goals damn near every gm, after getting shut out gm 4 id expect them to do some scoring back at home.
Sharks TT over.
Columbus ml. Teams so even feel like gotta roll w the dog. BOB been so good id expect a bounce back after allowing 4. Like the under also.
Rockets-3., surely this the game Houston gets all the garbage calls they live off? Nba needs this series to go at least 5 or 6. I hate Houston so doubt I’ll watch cause no interest rooting for these flopping scrubs.
Cardinals/cubs over 8.5. Cards offense struggling but Yu walks so many all it take few walks and a jack for them to get to 4 today imo. Lots of cubs have crushed wacha, I think both teams should put up at least 4 today.
Still working on rest of mlb card.Comment -
I'll suggest the game is juiced at 5.5 to keep pace with the other game today. It's not uncommon to see this with lines, I used to write about it quite a bit. The market likes to split money and the line originators know it.
Like that Columbus ml too, it's a contrarian look for sure, public and money all over Boston, they're probably right...lol.
I think the play in CBJ/BOS could be the UNDER. It's also a contrarian look, but in a different sense. My sources, as they come in, indicate a pretty even set of bets developing on the on Total but it looks like the respectable money is on the UNDER. It shows in the market as the UNDER is priced and my numbers indicate that the UNDER 5.5 -120 is a decent play still.
Have Rockets -3 too, let's cash.
We talked about that Total in Wrigley, one of us hits, that's the good news.
Good Luck Banker.
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You got me with nuggets last night, my turn!! Lol. Happy if I lose you will cash at least pal!!I'll suggest the game is juiced at 5.5 to keep pace with the other game today. It's not uncommon to see this with lines, I used to write about it quite a bit. The market likes to split money and the line originators know it.
Like that Columbus ml too, it's a contrarian look for sure, public and money all over Boston, they're probably right...lol.
I think the play in CBJ/BOS could be the UNDER. It's also a contrarian look, but in a different sense. My sources, as they come in, indicate a pretty even set of bets developing on the on Total but it looks like the respectable money is on the UNDER. It shows in the market as the UNDER is priced and my numbers indicate that the UNDER 5.5 -120 is a decent play still.
Have Rockets -3 too, let's cash.
We talked about that Total in Wrigley, one of us hits, that's the good news.
Good Luck Banker.
Yea I’m on under in Columbus gm as well as the dog. Maybe Boston wins but think the teams have looked incredibly even and just don’t think home ice worth what lines suggest. Pretty much same as Dallas/blues last night, I just couldn’t get around my fandom for that one, lol.,Comment -
I will go with Improbable at 5-1 in the Derby. The rain could make longshot possible.Comment -
Picked up that UNDER 5.5 in CBJ/BOS.
Gonna have to a pay a little for it, I paid -125.
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Been sleeping
Up now drinking Pabst blue ribbon and ready for actionComment -
DodgersComment -
Houston covered, after a small sweat and I lost a negligible amount in ponies because I bet a negligible amount.
The one race I did cash I didn't actually cash. I wasn't the only one...lol.
The Contrarian Fund is caught in a down market, with three losing days in a row...
Hop on, its gonna be a grind...Well it wasn't the best day for the contrarian markets in general. The big contrarian guys, LAA MIA, and to some extent CHW all failed in big ways. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. While Balty, Pitt and Wash, the winning contrarian plays were a bit closer.
This is a good sign for the Contrarian market. I've often written about the market trying to scare away types or groups of bettors, often before a cycle of their success comes amid rotating money and strategies. It doesn't always come, it's more about probabilities, like everything.
After a decent start this week, we have seen losses on Thurs, Fri, and Sat. The expectation of a batch of winners coming out of the market is actually increased in this environment. It's not just about having three losing Fund days in a row, it's about the market as a whole. But the Fund tracks the market and so can it's Total units.
Note that from Thurs until Sat the Contrarian Fund increased in it's amount of losing. This increase coinciding with Contrarian side scores we are seeing indicate a market turn.
It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it and let's see just how cold this market tries to go. If a lot of plays generate tomorrow, it could be a big day, one way or the other (as opposed to a roughly even result). There could be volatility in the mix.
This is the type of market analysis that I considered doing, possibly by video at some point, maybe more than once a day. There needs to be more than just posting the Fund, even if it is game by game analysis just sprinkled among other discussions and threads.
Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 137 plays...
952 4-May STL/CHC UNDER 8.5 (-105) -1 955 WAS +107 1.07 964 SD +110 -1 977 TOR +118 -1 Sat -1.93 Weeks 1-5 -1.32 Mon -0.54 Tue 2.73 Wed 1.38 Thu -0.62 Fri -1.15 Total -1.45
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