The Case For Pats +3

[Greenline]

-New England is 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread since the start of 2016 when facing an opponent that’s averaging at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt. KC averages 8.8.

-The Patriots are 8-2 against the spread (9-1 straight up) in that same time frame when facing an opponent that’s averaging at least 260 passing yards per game.

-18-2 straight up and 16-4 against the spread since the start of 2016 when facing an opponent that’s allowing an average of at least 350 yards per game.

-In their lone road game against an opponent that reached the playoffs, however, New England handed Chicago its only home loss of the season in Week 7, 38-31—it was the most points the Bears allowed all season.

-Since the start of 2016, New England is 7-0 against the spread on the road when coming off a game in which the team scored 35 or more points, and the Patriots are 12-1 against the spread in that same time frame when coming off a game in which they had a turnover margin of +2 or better.

[inspektr]

stats like these are meaningless. "Patriots are 8-0 on Sunday Afternoon games when Bill Belichek is wearing blue trousers on turf". Here's some stats you should look at. Brady and Belichek are 20-4 in home playoff games and 3-4 in away playoff games. On the season Patriots are 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road, vs KC whose 8-1 at home. And in the last 20 NFC/AFC playoff games, 18/20 home teams have won straight up

[scot4]

kc 27-23 lets hope.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think these DO have value. Big one that I've picked up on pre-game during week = Patriots are great defending the deep pass. Belichick teases teams to throw deep...and this Pats team defends it very well.

[jjgold]

trends mean nothing its why everyone loses

[ChuckyTheGoat]

trends mean nothing its why everyone loses

Any good clubbing stories from last nite?

[lakerboy]

I think these DO have value. Big one that I've picked up on pre-game during week = Patriots are great defending the deep pass. Belichick teases teams to throw deep...and this Pats team defends it very well.

How do they defend the mid range passes? The issue here is that mahomes always escapes because it's hard to close the pocket on him and then coverage breaks down allowing him to find guys in the middle of the field.

[joey sangria]

1. K.C. Defense has held visitors to 17 ppg at home this year
2. K.C. scored 26 points or more in every game this year
3. K.C. is ranked 2nd in both 3rd down conversions and red zone success. (N.E. was middle of the pack in both)
4. K.C. leads the league in sacks
5. K.C. WR Sammy Watkins is returning after being injured for over a month- another weapon
6. K.C. gets an extra day of rest
7. N.E. scores 33.8 pts. at home, but only averages 21.6 away.

[Snowball]

no value in +3, the ML is 50 basis points better payout or lower cost.

[mdunlap3]

I like 3 (EV and above), but I like 3.5(-120) the most.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How do they defend the mid range passes? The issue here is that mahomes always escapes because it's hard to close the pocket on him and then coverage breaks down allowing him to find guys in the middle of the field.

Laker, this is a game of mistakes. Absence of RB Hunt will show this game. Pats will try to bait Mahomes into a mistake.

[thomorino]

I don'd care I like the Chiefs but even if you like the Pats you should wait to see if the line goes to 3.5, its not going to 2.5.

[ikid2groove415]

KC wins by 3 Touchdowns- Brady retires after tomorrow’s game with broken ribs and legs

[walkingdude2]

or Brady goes to the superbowl, helped by Belichick's game plan.

Years from now gamblers will dream about having a team that they could auto bet during their era. Like the Patriots we have now.

Blindly betting the Patriots this year went 10-7 ats. 12-7 in 2017. An amazing 16-3 ats in 2016.

[Cubs2016]

I found 5 reasons

[Easy-Rider 66]

[QUOTE=ikid2groove415;28355381]KC wins by 3 Touchdowns- Brady retires after tomorrow’s game with broken ribs and legs[/QUOTE]

[Greenline]

KC wins by 3 Touchdowns- Brady retires after tomorrow’s game with broken ribs and legs

Ok, ty.