Is fade Martingale the Nationals a lock?

[bettilimbroke999]

It would have to work, this team's pitching is so bad they are incapable of going on any real winning streak, biggest streak of season for them is 4 in a row which happened once and a 3 in a row which happened once and they've lost 7 in a row twice, lost 6 in a row once, lost others in a row many times.

Think about it on their worst run of the season you got to 5 bets before a payoff, if you start at low enough stakes how is this not free money?

[englishmike]

That is actually a fantastic question, you have me thinking me now.

[dreamjob]

I have been doing this for a while. I got scared and jumped off for a bit when they won 4 straight a few weeks ago. I jumped back on Monday and I've been cashing. I would be up quite a bit if this was the only bet that I would make every day. But I'm a greedy SOB and I want more.

[tacomax]

It would have to work, this team's pitching is so bad they are incapable of going on any real winning streak, biggest streak of season for them is 4 in a row which happened once and a 3 in a row which happened once and they've lost 7 in a row twice, lost 6 in a row once, lost others in a row many times.

Think about it on their worst run of the season you got to 5 bets before a payoff, if you start at low enough stakes how is this not free money?

That is a very apt question bearing in mind your username.

[bettilimbroke999]

Small stakes tacomax, that is the key

Lets say 20 bucks on their worst run you got this:

Loss 20, loss 40, loss 80, loss 160, win 320 = max risk 620 on their worst run of the season

They've had 2 7 loss runs and a 6 loss run = net win 400 on those runs alone

Or you could do 10 dollars for max risk of 310 and 200 profit off those 3 runs alone, if every loss is paying 10 bucks you'd be up 550 this year fade Martingaling the Nats, you'd be up 1100 if you gambled for 20, or perhaps a fade parlay would produce even greater profits at minimum risk, think of risking 20 bucks and trying to hit 3-teamers you'd have hit 14 vs 22 losses, 3 teamers pays around 6-1 and they're hitting at 39% that's with a max risk loss of 20 x number of wins (22) = 440

This is a team that is bad beyond belief, they're currently 22-55, what kind of winning streak is this underhand pitching team gonna get on

Ya know what's really amazing about this team they are winning less than 29% percent of their games but their opponents are like -120 every game, its a fukin joke, they were -120 today and their starting pitcher was 0-5, they took the lead gave it back, took it again gave it right back, then lost for the 55th time in 77 games

The real question is who the fuk is still betting on this shitbag team to keep their opponents from being -200 every game?

[Rich Boy]

I think its mostly psychological for the Nats at this point. When they get leads, which is quite often, they have the mentality of "dont blow it" rather than "lets build on this lead". I dont think Martingale would work forever but for the rest of the season I doubt the Nats could win more than 5 in a row, even against a crap team like SD that would be a miracle.

Overall sounds like a sure thing, ill give it a shot. Thanks

[tacomax]

Lets say 20 bucks on their worst run you got this:

So you're trying to win $20 by playing Martingale? There are far easier ways to make $20 and they don't involve losing everything you have.

[bettilimbroke999]

I'm just opening this up for discussion, am i saying bet your life savings on this no but looking at their record and having seen a couple of their games recently this team meets the requirement of Detroit Lions awfulness that makes applying a fade system seem like a good idea. Everyone's looking for a decent bet in MLB well I say if you're lookin to hit over 71% throw out the stats and fade the Nats

[Bread]

Bettil...I know we're not the best of friends...but I like your spunk.

You're spunky. Go get'em Tiger.

[tacomax]

I think Bread would take any spunk he can get at the moment.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Small stakes tacomax, that is the key

Lets say 20 bucks on their worst run you got this:

Loss 20, loss 40, loss 80, loss 160, win 320 = max risk 620 on their worst run of the season

They've had 2 7 loss runs and a 6 loss run = net win 400 on those runs alone

Umm. You might wanna look at the line histories on that five game win streak. I highly doubt their opponents were even money. When they do go on another four or five game win streak and their opponent is -300 in that game, I'm sure you'll enjoy laying the $3-4K or so to win back your original $20.

[Rowdy Rolex]

Umm. You might wanna look at the line histories on that five game win streak. I highly doubt their opponents were even money. When they do go on another four or five game win streak and their opponent is -300 in that game, I'm sure you'll enjoy laying the $3-4K or so to win back your original $20.

Let him be

after all, he likes to bet until he is broke

[bettilimbroke999]

Thanks Bread, I consider you a degenerate forum posting loser so we have something in common, gl2u and fade the nats

(Hey it beats no action)

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'd much rather bet the Nats every day the rest of the season than fade them at this point.

[pimike]

I'd much rather bet the Nats every day the rest of the season than fade them at this point.

Tomorrow is the Day.

[Bread]

I am definitely a loser, but I only lost $170 at poker today.

I'm getting better every day yes I am.

Fukk Ryan Zimmerman! And Mookie Wilson too for that matter!

[bettilimbroke999]

Umm. You might wanna look at the line histories on that five game win streak. I highly doubt their opponents were even money. When they do go on another four or five game win streak and their opponent is -300 in that game, I'm sure you'll enjoy laying the $3-4K or so to win back your original $20.

All I'm sayin is yesterday their opp was -120 and their starting pitcher was 0-5, today their opp is -120 and granted its their best pitcher Lannan who's 5-5 but they're facing Hanson who's 4-0, personally I feel fading the nats has an edge with those odds, yea if you see a -300 EVER ON ANY MLB GAME do not take it but that goes without saying. I gave several suggestions on how to fade the nats bc often times they're imo overrated especially at home with only a 13-26 record but hey don't fade the nats, its no sweat off my nuts, fade the Dodgers for all I care

[Rowdy Rolex]

Tomorrow is the Day.

not with my boy Tommy Hanson on the mound

[durito]

I'd much rather bet the Nats every day the rest of the season than fade them at this point.

sounds like my season so far

[MonkeyF0cker]

All I'm sayin is yesterday their opp was -120 and their starting pitcher was 0-5, today their opp is -120 and granted its their best pitcher Lannan who's 5-5 but they're facing Hanson who's 4-0, personally I feel fading the nats has an edge with those odds, yea if you see a -300 EVER ON ANY MLB GAME do not take it but that goes without saying. I gave several suggestions on how to fade the nats bc often times they're imo overrated especially at home with only a 13-26 record but hey don't fade the nats, its no sweat off my nuts, fade the Dodgers for all I care

I wouldn't blindly bet or fade any team. If I had to choose though, I'd rather bet the Nats instead of fading them. People like you help to inflate the prices of bad teams after the all-star break to the point of profitability.

[bettilimbroke999]

So -120 Braves with a 4-0 pitcher vs the Nats has no value okay well maybe you're right we'll see, I think the Nats suk huge bone where this line should be in the -160 range but maybe the Nats will pull one out today. I tell ya what I wish I could get -120 on their last 77 games opponents

100 a game I'd be up almost 3k

[dreamjob]

I'm definitely fading the nats today. Let's Go Braves!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chi_archie]

I'll be playing the Nats prob more than any other team at home the rest of this year.

they are no where near as bad as their record, I'm sure they've lost twice as many 1 run games as they've won and I think they are almost 0-10 in extra inning games, which is unreal........ they are due some serious regression the the mean... this team has some young talent and could go on a streak...

[bettilimbroke999]

This team does have hitting talent they simply have no pitching talent.

Nats faders up 3-0, keep it up Atlanta, loss # 56 coming shortly for Nats

[WileOut]

Didn't the Nats go on a run last year and end the year way better than expected? Well they are a much better offensive team this year. The pitching is horrible, yes.

[bettilimbroke999]

Wile they've hit great recently and still lose every game, they had the lead twice yesterday and instablew it the following inning both times, I think they scored 8 and still lost. It's just hard to get on a run for any team with Single A pitching.