roddick's chances to beat fed, what do you rate them?

bettilimbroke999 · 07-03-09, 04:20 PM

2-16 record but has a 35% chance? Hmmm

lakerboy · 07-03-09, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

i say he's got a 35% chance to win, maybe better

here's why:

he is only 2 and 16 lifetime vs fed so fed 'might be' overconfident, if its possible to be overconfident for the great federer, this might be the spot

andy has looked really good since the aussie, he lost 15 lbs coming into the 09 season and is in phenomenal shape, he made the semis at aussie, quarters at french (his best ever result there) and now in the wimby final, this is his best yr in quite some time, he looks reborn at age 26

larry stefanki has him believing..............andy has me believing

now i just talked myself into saying he has maybe a 38-40% chance to win, much more than a puncher's chance

fed was dead to rights to berdych in australia, then nadal made him cry, then haas had him dead to rights in the french, then del potro did as well.........he is due for close one at wimbledon, he is nearly 28 yrs old

andy can make history tomorrow and has the gm right now to do it

hoopster i really think roddick will get destroyed- federer will win 3-0

TheIntegrityKid · 07-03-09, 04:23 PM

im playing andy and hoping for the best!

here's hoping he is priced really well for us...

pavyracer · 07-03-09, 04:24 PM

I give Roddick 2% chance of winning the match, 10% chance of winning a set and 20% chance of breaking Federer.

hoopster42 · 07-03-09, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by bettilimbroke999

2-16 record but has a 35% chance? Hmmm

actually i messed up, he is 2-18 i believe

anyhow, 1 of andy's wins came last yr in a tour event in miami

andy is playing the best tennis he has played in yrs

fed has shown chinks in the armor in recent yrs, most notably the last 2 yrs

fed is almost 28 yrs old, fed was so close to losing in australia to berdych, then nadal made GOD cry in the final, in the french he avoided nadal, but almost lost to haas and del potro

sure, this is grass, but something is tellin me..............

TheIntegrityKid · 07-03-09, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

actually i messed up, he is 2-18 i believe

anyhow, 1 of andy's wins came last yr in a tour event in miami

andy is playing the best tennis he has played in yrs

fed has shown chinks in the armor in recent yrs, most notably the last 2 yrs

fed is almost 28 yrs old, fed was so close to losing in australia to berdych, then nadal made GOD cry in the final, in the french he avoided nadal, but almost lost to haas and del potro

sure, this is grass, but something is tellin me..............

im with ya hoopster... i just have a FEELING that this is his time.. and he will beat the great federer..

here's hoping we are both right

Tchocky · 07-03-09, 07:35 PM

If Andy can hold serve for his first 18 service games, then he has a chance.

GatorFan · 07-04-09, 02:04 AM

Fedex has too many weapons for Andy to handle. Fedex wins in 3 sets

Dark Horse · 07-05-09, 05:49 AM

Looking only at Grand Slams:
2009 Australian Open Hard S Federer 6-2 7-5 7-5
2007 US Open Hard Q Federer 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 6-2
2007 Australian Open Hard S Federer 6-4 6-0 6-2
2006 US Open Hard F Federer 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-1
2005 Wimbledon Grass F Federer 6-2 7-6(2) 6-4
2004 Wimbledon Grass F Federer 4-6 7-5 7-6(3) 6-4
2003 Wimbledon Grass S Federer 7-6(6) 6-3 6-3

Federer 7-0
Sets 21-2
Tie breakers 5-0
7-5 sets 4-0
6-4 sets 3-2
6-3 sets 2-0
6-2 sets 5-0
6-1 sets 1-0
6-0 sets 1-0

hoopster42 · 07-05-09, 06:57 AM

Darkhorse, based on those numbers it's a wonder why fed is not a -8350 fave over andy instead of -835ish

the fact remains that if andy gains any kind of confidence and fed either begins to lose confidence for whatever reason or perhaps tweaks an ankle or a knee, andy has a pretty good chance to win the match

fed was dead to rights to berdych in australia down 0-2, nadal made him cry in australia at the trophy presentation where the frustration just broke him down, haas had fed dead to rights at the french down 0-2, and del potro extended him to 5 and del potro has shown that he's nothing special esp on clay

fed has chinks and andy has tremendous confidence coming in, i think andy will give him hell in about 1.2 hrs and anything is possible

just ask mike tyson and buster douglas

hoopster42 · 07-05-09, 08:53 AM

Fukk yeah andy

Dark Horse · 07-05-09, 12:21 PM

No kidding, hoopster. (29 games into 5th set at this point)

Based on the numbers I only considered playing an even number of games in the 1st set (-110), but I laid off.

SBR Lou · 07-05-09, 12:33 PM

It took late into the 5th set for Andy's level of play to drop, but as figured the longer the match went the more you have to favor Fed in all the baseline rallies Andy was surprisingly winning both on serve and the return. And, predictably, the champion in Fed finally shown and those last few service games he kept getting a little closer to Andy while holding 3 straight times to love on his own serve.

Shafted69 · 07-05-09, 12:35 PM

THank you FEDERER $$$$

Dark Horse · 07-05-09, 12:43 PM

All numbers out of the window except one. Federer now 7-0 in tiebreakers in Grand Slams versus Roddick. That seems big.

SBR Lou · 07-05-09, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

All numbers out of the window except one. Federer now 7-0 in tiebreakers in Grand Slams versus Roddick. That seems big.

Had Roddick won the 2nd set tiebreaker, do you think the outcome would have been different?

Dark Horse · 07-05-09, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Had Roddick won the 2nd set tiebreaker, do you think the outcome would have been different?

Would Federer have been able to come back from two sets down? I doubt it, given that he only broke Roddick once. Federer didn't let it get that far. That's why he's the champ.