The sports Investment year starts this weekend for me

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  • RageWizard
    SBR MVP
    • 09-01-06
    • 3008

    #1
    The sports Investment year starts this weekend for me
    I start off the investment season this year as I do every year with my selections for the Tour de France. This year's tour is really one for the Mountain goats with 8 stages in the mountains. Basically the odds on favorite for the race is Velasco, a dude who has been in great form coming into the race. He is also on the Astana team along with Armstrong. Basically I will fade Velasco in all the head to head matchups with the belief that he has peaked too soon for this race. Also look for Lance to dominate the second to last stage of the race (Stage 20 July 25) when the race ends up on top of Mont Ventoux made very famous in the late 60's when a dude actually dropped dead on the climb. Anyways, next to L'Alpe-D'Huez, and maybe actually more prestiguous in Europe, it is the most famous mountain finish and certainly one that Lance Armstrong has been looking to win his whole career. He has had 2 chances, and 1 time he gave it away to Marco Pantani while he was on his way to a overall victory. If Lance and Velasco are out of the picture for the overall, this is as close to a lock as there will be for the Tour. If either Velasco or Lance is fighting for the victory, look for Lance to swallow it up and be a good soldier for the team. Remember this is a team sport, and investments should be made with all of that in mind. Speaking of teams and their effect on individual odds, Cadel Evans will be my choice to win it all. He is world class, and he finished 2nd last year just 58 seconds behind Sastre. He is currently priced at +1050 partly due to his team (Silence-Lotto), which is traditionally a sprinters team. Evans is a climber and this year's tour along with last year's close 2nd will propel him to cash in the money for me, which is all I really care about.

    I am also adding the nathan's hot dog eatting contest this year and taking the under 60.5 dogs for the winner. Remember the contest is now 10 miniutes in length, and I have been hearing rumors that Chestnut isn't in as great a shape as in previous years, so I might also place some dough on the Japanese dude who is every all you can eat buffet owner's nightmare.

    For all my selections, I will be updating the spreadsheet, so you can share my pain this year. I mean pain as in my effing arms will get tired from all the cash that they will have to carry.

    For real though, if there are any bicycling dudes out there, share your thoughts on the upcoming tour. There seems to be about 10 different dudes who could win it this years, along with some interesting matchups for the sprinters and king of the mountains competition.
  • RageWizard
    SBR MVP
    • 09-01-06
    • 3008

    #2
    Hey, where is the spreadsheet module code? I went to load it up, but I'm such a computer tard, that I couldn't understand how to do it.
    Comment
    • englishmike
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 06-19-08
      • 5279

      #3
      Good luck Rage, I'll be all over the Tour myself and definetly disagree with your confidence in Lance.

      I'll post my plays in this thread, we'll have a head-to-head, loser buys the first round in Vegas.
      Comment
      • RageWizard
        SBR MVP
        • 09-01-06
        • 3008

        #4
        My only real confidence in Lance is for the second to last stage, I am really fading Velasco in all the head to head matchups. One of which is against Lance, so I took Lance in that one as well. Really I like Evans, and maybe Sastre to repeat.
        Comment
        • englishmike
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-19-08
          • 5279

          #5
          I like Evans chance and I like Leipheimers given the team he has and given the way he controlled the Tour Of California. Although the California race was obviously shorter, some of the climbs were brutal, so although I realise he'll face stiffer opposition in France I still like his chances if he can stay anywhere near the leaders, or maybe lead himself. My main income plan in the French race will be taking Mark Cavendish to win any flat stage with a sprint, I should get four or five chances in the first week and hopefully he can win 2 or 3.
          Comment
          • RageWizard
            SBR MVP
            • 09-01-06
            • 3008

            #6
            Originally posted by englishmike
            I like Evans chance and I like Leipheimers given the team he has and given the way he controlled the Tour Of California. Although the California race was obviously shorter, some of the climbs were brutal, so although I realise he'll face stiffer opposition in France I still like his chances if he can stay anywhere near the leaders, or maybe lead himself. My main income plan in the French race will be taking Mark Cavendish to win any flat stage with a sprint, I should get four or five chances in the first week and hopefully he can win 2 or 3.
            I like Cavendish as well for just about all of the sprint finishes. I was thinking about taking him for the green jersey, but I have worries about him making it to Paris, especially since they have allot of Mountain stages for him to get over.

            How do you post your spreadsheeet here? I think I could do it before the site change, but now I can't figure it out.
            Comment
            • englishmike
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-19-08
              • 5279

              #7
              Obviously I realise Leipheimer is on Contadors team by the way, I just like the difference between +110 and 40-1!
              Comment
              • englishmike
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-19-08
                • 5279

                #8
                I've no idea on the speadsheet i'm affraid. Cavendish won't make it to Paris but i expect him to win at least three stages and I think Green Jersey winner is a smart play, as well as taking him on a daily basis on the flat stages if the lines aren't too cramped.
                Comment
                • RageWizard
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-01-06
                  • 3008

                  #9
                  I think you have to finish to get the green jersey.
                  Comment
                  • englishmike
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-19-08
                    • 5279

                    #10
                    Ahhh ok, sorry, you're right, I'm thinking points leader.
                    Comment
                    • englishmike
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-19-08
                      • 5279

                      #11
                      The line I dont understand is Leipheimer 33-1 to win and 8-1 to be in the first three, he was third in this in 2007 and has had a great season, I feel it's a false price because Contadors on the same team and it's assumed Levi will have to defer to him
                      Comment
                      • RageWizard
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-01-06
                        • 3008

                        #12
                        I have found in years past, that there is usually one guy who is the big favorite. This year it is Velasco, and they always don't deliver. As someone who raced bicycles for years locally. I can tell you that people peak at different times for some reason or another. I think the odds are reflective of the Levi's team makeup, and the fact that he is doing well this year so far. It doesn't make sense, but it almost always happens that the dude who looks the best always loses this race. That is why I like betting this race, the odds are always skewed.
                        Comment
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