Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 06/26/09
Pick 1: New York Mets +153 over New York Yankees
Mike Pelfrey has been pretty consistent this season in at least keeping his team in the game. He usually gives up about two runs over the course of 6-7 innings. Tampa Bay got to him in his last out as he gave up four earned runs through five; but I expect something in the middle from him at home today, somewhere in the ballpark of 6 innings of 3 earned ball.
Against Sabathia, who has not been sharp of late and may not even be 100%, this game could easily be a close one that comes down to the late innings; nothing like the +153 price indicates.
Pick 2: Boston Red Sox -117 over Atlanta Braves
With the exception of one bad start, Josh Beckett has been masterful of late, giving up ZERO earned runs in four of his last six starts (and one earned run in the other game). With the better offense on his side, I like him tonight even against a worthy opponent in Jurrjens
Pick 3: San Francisco +145 over Milwaukee Brewers
I can't say that I don't understand why the line is where it is. With two aces in Cain and Gallardo on the mound likely cancelling eachother out in most bettor's minds, it comes down to offense; and Milwaukee most certainly has the edge in that department. That said, I see a pitcher that has been pitching brilliantly and that has seen the Giants win in 9 straight trips to the mound; and in a likely pitcher's duel where it could all come down to one mistake pitch, +145 seems way too good to pass on.
Pick 4: Los Angeles Angels -138 over Arizona Diamondbacks
An extremely lopsided pitching matchup, this line is actually lower than where it should be in my estimation due to the recent surge in the D'Back's bats. Weaver should quiet them down a little tonight, and the Angel bats should do fine against Buckner.
Good Luck!
Mike Pelfrey has been pretty consistent this season in at least keeping his team in the game. He usually gives up about two runs over the course of 6-7 innings. Tampa Bay got to him in his last out as he gave up four earned runs through five; but I expect something in the middle from him at home today, somewhere in the ballpark of 6 innings of 3 earned ball.
Against Sabathia, who has not been sharp of late and may not even be 100%, this game could easily be a close one that comes down to the late innings; nothing like the +153 price indicates.
Pick 2: Boston Red Sox -117 over Atlanta Braves
With the exception of one bad start, Josh Beckett has been masterful of late, giving up ZERO earned runs in four of his last six starts (and one earned run in the other game). With the better offense on his side, I like him tonight even against a worthy opponent in Jurrjens
Pick 3: San Francisco +145 over Milwaukee Brewers
I can't say that I don't understand why the line is where it is. With two aces in Cain and Gallardo on the mound likely cancelling eachother out in most bettor's minds, it comes down to offense; and Milwaukee most certainly has the edge in that department. That said, I see a pitcher that has been pitching brilliantly and that has seen the Giants win in 9 straight trips to the mound; and in a likely pitcher's duel where it could all come down to one mistake pitch, +145 seems way too good to pass on.
Pick 4: Los Angeles Angels -138 over Arizona Diamondbacks
An extremely lopsided pitching matchup, this line is actually lower than where it should be in my estimation due to the recent surge in the D'Back's bats. Weaver should quiet them down a little tonight, and the Angel bats should do fine against Buckner.
Good Luck!
