P.E.P. General methods and strategy thread

TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:01 PM

Hopefully this thread will work in perfect harmony with the other thread and we will be able to have a little more success with our selections

Let the ideas flow in here boys!

TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:04 PM

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KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:06 PM

FVCKING GAY SHIT! Time to start being negative -- that's my strategy! Watch, I'm going to go look at tomorrow's games all pissed off and negative, I'll pick 3 and it'll hit!

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:12 PM

Okay guys, lets devise some sort of general scheme for picking apart MLB games. Here is what I propose:

1: Compare starting pitchers, looking at their WHIP, last 3 outings (basically current form), and any history they may have against the opposing team's roster.

2: Compare current hitting trends between the two teams, looking at their most recent series played against their last opponent. We must make sure we factor in the difficulty and style of that last opponent (weak bullpen, strong starters, field conditions, etc).

3: Same as above, but for the teams bullpens.

4: Check for any key injuries or players who are being rested.

5: Note the mood for each team (travel schedule, current streaks, position in the division race, etc).

6: Determine weather conditions and time of day, as well as any possible rivalry or past success against opponent or within opponents ballpark.

7: Note which side public is betting, and how it correlates to the line movement. We should always ask ourselves "how does the book stand to gain from this match up?"

What am I missing here guys, what should we add or subtract?

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:15 PM

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TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:17 PM

Ooo good idea about using twitter... Didn't that help with the KC over today?

KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:18 PM

Red Sox RL --- I said ML -- but I meant RL
Toronto-Wash over 8.5
Cincy

That's it. Negative picks. They're going to hit - you'll see!

KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:19 PM

Twitter might be good...this Razz is a genius.

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by TheIntegrityKid

Ooo good idea about using twitter... Didn't that help with the KC over today?

It sure did. There are plenty of legitimate people in the business who pass along valuable nuggets of info. No need to look for picks on twitter, rather information that may help us in determining a side.
Another site:
dailybaseballdata.com

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by KingRevolver

Twitter might be good...this Razz is a genius.

Thanks Kinger, but I'm more lucky than smart. Here's hoping to increase the intelligence, but keep the luck.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:26 PM

Another thing... I think we should not go against our instincts too much...

So many times I've liked a play and went against it or not lobbied for it because I thought it wasn't "safe"

We should have it where if any one person objects to a play, then we just move on. That could've helped us avoid the crappy angels. Damn, Had we taken DJ's +1.5 dodgers idea, we woulda had that insurance and been on our way to hitting this...

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by TheIntegrityKid

Another thing... I think we should not go against our instincts too much...

So many times I've liked a play and went against it or not lobbied for it because I thought it wasn't "safe"

We should have it where if any one person objects to a play, then we just move on. That could've helped us avoid the crappy angels. Damn, Had we taken DJ's +1.5 dodgers idea, we woulda had that insurance and been on our way to hitting this...

Ok, I like this. Lets rate our picks/opinions when we put out a play on the thread. 1-3 stars.

* I like this pick, based on instinct alone.
** I like this pick based on instinct, and have data to back it up.
*** I like this pick based on instinct, have data to support it, and have line movement that supports its as well.

If any can overrule a one star pick with either kind of evidence we throw it out unless universally supported by everyone else (stats are key, but there will be times where we fly by feel).

Minkus · 06-20-09, 11:34 PM

i dont know what else to do...Stats in baseball, dont matter as i see it anymore....

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by Minkus

i dont know what else to do...Stats in baseball, dont matter as i see it anymore....

Minkus, I understand the frustration but stats do matter. We simply need to streamline them and use the most important stats. We'll get it down, this is still a small sample size and we are still doing fine.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by Razz_Donkey

Ok, I like this. Lets rate our picks/opinions when we put out a play on the thread. 1-3 stars.

* I like this pick, based on instinct alone.
** I like this pick based on instinct, and have data to back it up.
*** I like this pick based on instinct, have data to support it, and have line movement that supports its as well.

If any can overrule a one star pick with either kind of evidence we throw it out unless universally supported by everyone else (stats are key, but there will be times where we fly by feel).

YES YES YES

the 3 * system should def be a part, THE part, of our system... If we are gonna make 3 picks in a parlay, may as well have 3 stars to decide them with...

dreamjob · 06-20-09, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by TheIntegrityKid

Another thing... I think we should not go against our instincts too much...

So many times I've liked a play and went against it or not lobbied for it because I thought it wasn't "safe"

We should have it where if any one person objects to a play, then we just move on. That could've helped us avoid the crappy angels. Damn, Had we taken DJ's +1.5 dodgers idea, we woulda had that insurance and been on our way to hitting this...

Here's the thing kid. I picked the LAD +1.5 cause I had a gut feeling it was going to be a close game. I also liked the price, I mean come on +1.5 for -125. Can't get much better than that. I personally thought it was going to be a 4-3 nailbiter either way. That pick was gut feeling only.

Minkus · 06-20-09, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by Razz_Donkey

Minkus, I understand the frustration but stats do matter. We simply need to streamline them and use the most important stats. We'll get it down, this is still a small sample size and we are still doing fine.

The past few days, games have gone complete opposite of stats in favor of a team....This is why i hate mlb betting. This is when stats dont mean shit or should i say when players are in a slump.

Books have made a lot of money this week

dreamjob · 06-20-09, 11:42 PM

I also liked the rangers +1.5 I'll take insurance anywhere I can get it.

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by dreamjob

Here's the thing kid. I picked the LAD +1.5 cause I had a gut feeling it was going to be a close game. I also liked the price, I mean come on +1.5 for -125. Can't get much better than that. I personally thought it was going to be a 4-3 nailbiter either way. That pick was gut feeling only.

DJ, you have good instinct, I'm sorry we didn't take your play. I'm awaiting your pick for tomorrow and we are all glad to have you on board. Keep working with us, we'll get it.

KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:43 PM

Maybe we should pick a parlay the way you guys usually do it but then not play it as a parlay. Play all three bets individually. You seem to do better picking that way...usually you miss the parlay by a very small margin.

Minkus · 06-20-09, 11:43 PM

Gut feeling and first impression of a game after reading the preview of the matchup is really the only thing that matters in this sport...im taking the approach for tomorrows games. so whatever i say just ignore it and lets see what happens.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:43 PM

Well it was a right call DJ... we should've hedged by taking that... The A's over hit any way.. Here I thought we had the over at first lol

It's all good.. We didn't do so bad today... 1-1-1 and then 1-2...

WE gotta use a combo of our gut instincts and stats... The *** system should really help ALOT

KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:44 PM

Or we do the three picks...play a 2-teamer and take the action on the third pick.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-20-09, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by KingRevolver

Or we do the three picks...play a 2-teamer and take the action on the third pick.

I think you're on to something...

We should get our 5 best bets lined up for tomorrow...

Narrow it down to 3 we REALLY like. Take our top 2, do a parlay. And get action on the 3rd...

This could be good. Kinger comes up wit some good shit when it's time to get out of a hole

dreamjob · 06-20-09, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Minkus

Gut feeling and first impression of a game after reading the preview of the matchup is really the only thing that matters in this sport...im taking the approach for tomorrows games. so whatever i say just ignore it and lets see what happens.

That's how I pick minkus. I liked the +1.5 on the LAD and TEX after I read the preview I pick em.

dreamjob · 06-20-09, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Razz_Donkey

DJ, you have good instinct, I'm sorry we didn't take your play. I'm awaiting your pick for tomorrow and we are all glad to have you on board. Keep working with us, we'll get it.

My gut has been wrong plenty of times. I know I was wrong on Toronto today. I can't believe it the fvcking nats. I might bet them tomorrow for the first time all season

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:48 PM

Thats it, if you feel more comfortable going by instinct then go for it. If we back it with stats, then all the better. It's a combination of the two, we just need to keep tinkering with the mixture to get it right.

Kinger, I agree. I focus mainly on the straight plays. The parlay is icing on the cake when we get it right.

Minkus · 06-20-09, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by dreamjob

That's how I pick minkus. I liked the +1.5 on the LAD and TEX after I read the preview I pick em.

Its what i use to do. And since i joined htis thread i tried using stats to make it look better and more legit. and i lost so many bets!

Im going back to how i use to cap them,

Dont get me wrong i like this thread im sticking around, but im just going back to how i use to cap. Stats just confuse it more and make it more difficult to bet

Razz_Donkey · 06-20-09, 11:53 PM

Alright boys, lets have TIK get the thread going for tomorrow, plenty of early games. Go by instinct or by numbers, we'll get several bets on board and go from there. If we can lets use the * rating system, highlight any pertinent data you may find, and for those of us relying on numbers primarily lets try using the 1-7 checklist I listed in post # 5. Sound good?

dreamjob · 06-20-09, 11:54 PM

Sounds good to me

Minkus · 06-20-09, 11:55 PM

good to me

KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by TheIntegrityKid

I think you're on to something...

We should get our 5 best bets lined up for tomorrow...

Narrow it down to 3 we REALLY like. Take our top 2, do a parlay. And get action on the 3rd...

This could be good. Kinger comes up wit some good shit when it's time to get out of a hole

Yeah - I'm telling you - that's not a bad idea at all!

dreamjob · 06-20-09, 11:56 PM

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KingRevolver · 06-20-09, 11:58 PM

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