Actually, the proposition of another #16 seed beating a #1 seed in the next 10 years would be a favorite vs. it not happening. If every #1 seed had a 98% chance of winning its game the next 40 tries (and there would often be cases where they were less than 98% in reality, but almost never more than 98%), the chance of a #16 seed winning at least once in the next 40 tries would be 55%. Fact is, it was amazing (although not earth shattering) it hadn't happened before today, but that's just variance.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Little Caesar’s CEO: “You sure about this?”<br>Little Caesar’s marketing guy: “I guarantee we won’t pay a dime.” <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UMBC?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"># UMBC</a> <a href="https://t.co/AHzW6ER2Hz">pic.twitter.com/AHzW6ER2Hz</a></p>— Luke Arthur (@lja_14) <a href="https://twitter.com/lja_14/status/974866190844747776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"> March 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
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You da man, bro.Comment -
I said someone would win by 20 LOLComment -
Why it’s not really a massive story is because the game was a blowout I think if it was closer I would be getting much more attention
It’s like this Maryland team is just as good as themComment -
This is correct and even this is being conservative. For anyone that doubts his math it's pretty easy to figure it out on your own if you would like. Just figure out the No Juice Closing Lines for all the #1 vs #16 games. I just used 5Dimes closing lines to make it simple. If I did it correctly, the NJCL in the UMBC vs VA game was +/-3284. Converted into percentages it basically gives VA a 97% chance of winning. In the Nova vs Radford game it's 97.5%, in the Xavier vs TX So. game it's 96.7%. But the one that was REALLY close for a #1 vs #16 seed was the PA vs KS game. The 5Dimes closing line was PA +880 KS -1080. That means the NJCL was approximately +/-897. Converted into percentages that's only approximately 90%. I predict that a #16 beating a #1 is going to end up very similar to the 4 Minute Mile. Now that it has been done, I think it will happen much more frequently now. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see it happen more than once in the next 10 years.Comment -
Final thoughts, Virginia got a favorable game location but got hosed by the committee. I think those guys stuck it to the Cavs. The public S-curve released has the six 16 seeds listed in this order:
63. UMBC
64. Penn
65. Radford
66. LIU-Brooklyn
67. NC Central
68. Texas Southern
So, Virginia got stuck with a quasi 15 seed, the best of the 16 seeds. I wonder if Virginia would have lost to Tx Southern.. that would have been even a greater upset if the worst team in the field had knocked them off.
Xavier should have been the ones to play UMBC, as the worst of the top seeds. Wonder if they would have choked just as hard!Comment -
Umbc +10 +450 vs Kansas st ....Comment -
they try to keep teams as close to home as possibleFinal thoughts, Virginia got a favorable game location but got hosed by the committee. I think those guys stuck it to the Cavs. The public S-curve released has the six 16 seeds listed in this order:
63. UMBC
64. Penn
65. Radford
66. LIU-Brooklyn
67. NC Central
68. Texas Southern
So, Virginia got stuck with a quasi 15 seed, the best of the 16 seeds. I wonder if Virginia would have lost to Tx Southern.. that would have been even a greater upset if the worst team in the field had knocked them off.
Xavier should have been the ones to play UMBC, as the worst of the top seeds. Wonder if they would have choked just as hard!Comment -
Lol you can’t be serious ? They lost to a 16 seed - never been done before ? Nobody hosed themFinal thoughts, Virginia got a favorable game location but got hosed by the committee. I think those guys stuck it to the Cavs. The public S-curve released has the six 16 seeds listed in this order:
63. UMBC
64. Penn
65. Radford
66. LIU-Brooklyn
67. NC Central
68. Texas Southern
So, Virginia got stuck with a quasi 15 seed, the best of the 16 seeds. I wonder if Virginia would have lost to Tx Southern.. that would have been even a greater upset if the worst team in the field had knocked them off.
Xavier should have been the ones to play UMBC, as the worst of the top seeds. Wonder if they would have choked just as hard!Comment -
So mad.. If you put a buck on this game.. UghComment -
What if scenarios
Love themComment -
Another bracket buster on the loose
Bama musta been watching umbcComment -
Well done mate, everyone will be jumping on you're bandwagon and say they saw it coming but really let's be honest very few did, especially in the fashion it ended.Comment -
Bama will win here
sexton is legitComment -
a $10 bet on this would have been a decent payoutComment -
I disagree here. I had Virginia winning the game by 7 points with a forecast that had been beating the books average line error both during the season and when adjusted for tournament play over past seasons.
That 7 point spread will not translate to such a moneyline and I argue that my forecast revealed an extremely inefficient market, a condition we often see with the swelling of the markets for March Madness.
I can create forecasts with available numbers that give Virginia that kind of scoring discrepancy, but they don't seem to be predictive.
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One more time since it bears repeating: UMBC lost to Albany 83-39 this season.Comment -
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Retrievers unite !!Comment -
If UMBC wins the NCAA basketball tournament, they will be the 3rd school with championships in both men's basketball and chess (CCNY and Florida).Comment -
Holy shit.
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UMBC is gonna get pounded by Kansas State in their next game today.. This cinderella story ends after today.. Fade em...Comment
