Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 06/10/09 (Write Up)
Pick 1: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+125) over Chicago White Sox
On April 27th, Justin Verlander suddenly remembered how to pitch. He started locating his 99-mph fastball to his liking, giving big league hitters absolutely no chance to keep up.
Since (and including) that day, Verlander is 6-0 in 8 starts with 56.1 IP, a 1.18 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts. It just doesn’t get a whole lot better than that.
Before running into a major pitching duel against Ervin Santana (where he took a no decision despite eight scoreless innings), Verlander had won three straight; all covering on the runline as well.
I’ll admit that I am a John Danks fan, but he has not pitched well at all since his great start in April. In May he had a 6.32 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP while batters where hitting an incredible .315 against him. After a 5 earned outing in his last out, June isn’t off to a much better start. I expect Danks to turn it around eventually, but the White Sox have an offense that Verlander should be up to the task of dominating through and through, and even if Detroit only scores three or four off of Danks, I still think that would be enough for the cover.
Pick 2: Chicago Cubs -108 over Houston Astros
Whole lot to love about this game.
Carlos Zambrano has been pretty good all season long. In eight of Zambrano’s nine starts this season he has surrendered three runs or less. If you like looking at past performances against teams, Zambrano has dazzled in his career against the Astros, compiling 172.2 innings, a 2.66 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .195 BAA. Little to no reason he shouldn’t be in the 0-3 runs given up area today.
Wandy Rodriguez meanwhile has put together three straight poor outings, giving up at least five runs and nine hits in all three and not lasting more than five innings in any of them. These outings also came against the Reds, Pirates, and Rockies; not deadly hitting teams.
If Wandy returns to form, we will have a pitchers duel on our hands and about a 50/50 chance of winning this game (ala -108). If Wandy continues his recent poor form, this one looks like a slam dunk. Excellent price on the Cubbies tonight.
Pick 3: St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins Under 8 (-102)
Is there anything about this game that doesn’t scream pitcher’s duel?
In Adam Wainwright the Cardinals send their second ace to the mound, and he has pitched exceptionally well since tweaking his delivery in mid May. In his last five starts, Wainwright has given up two runs or less in four of them, also striking out at least seven in all four of those efforts.
Chris Volstad has been nothing but consistent over the course of the entire season, and more accurately over the course of his entire career. In 26 career starts dating back to last season, Volstad has never given up more than four earned runs; and has given up exactly that many only four times. That marks a career of giving up three earned runs or less in 22 of his 26 starts, including 10 of 12 this year.
Against a team that has been as cold as ice at the plate like the Cardinals have, no reason to believe tonight won’t be another one of those three earned or less outings. This game should be a great pitcher’s duel with runs at a premium.
Good Luck!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am negative units on the season, as you can see in my signature and on my spreadsheet. While I do work really hard to cap these games and hope to finish the season in the green, don't want anyone tailing me thinking I'm better than I actually am. Hopefully if you choose to tail me its because you agree with my write-ups
.
On April 27th, Justin Verlander suddenly remembered how to pitch. He started locating his 99-mph fastball to his liking, giving big league hitters absolutely no chance to keep up.
Since (and including) that day, Verlander is 6-0 in 8 starts with 56.1 IP, a 1.18 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts. It just doesn’t get a whole lot better than that.
Before running into a major pitching duel against Ervin Santana (where he took a no decision despite eight scoreless innings), Verlander had won three straight; all covering on the runline as well.
I’ll admit that I am a John Danks fan, but he has not pitched well at all since his great start in April. In May he had a 6.32 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP while batters where hitting an incredible .315 against him. After a 5 earned outing in his last out, June isn’t off to a much better start. I expect Danks to turn it around eventually, but the White Sox have an offense that Verlander should be up to the task of dominating through and through, and even if Detroit only scores three or four off of Danks, I still think that would be enough for the cover.
Pick 2: Chicago Cubs -108 over Houston Astros
Whole lot to love about this game.
Carlos Zambrano has been pretty good all season long. In eight of Zambrano’s nine starts this season he has surrendered three runs or less. If you like looking at past performances against teams, Zambrano has dazzled in his career against the Astros, compiling 172.2 innings, a 2.66 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .195 BAA. Little to no reason he shouldn’t be in the 0-3 runs given up area today.
Wandy Rodriguez meanwhile has put together three straight poor outings, giving up at least five runs and nine hits in all three and not lasting more than five innings in any of them. These outings also came against the Reds, Pirates, and Rockies; not deadly hitting teams.
If Wandy returns to form, we will have a pitchers duel on our hands and about a 50/50 chance of winning this game (ala -108). If Wandy continues his recent poor form, this one looks like a slam dunk. Excellent price on the Cubbies tonight.
Pick 3: St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins Under 8 (-102)
Is there anything about this game that doesn’t scream pitcher’s duel?
In Adam Wainwright the Cardinals send their second ace to the mound, and he has pitched exceptionally well since tweaking his delivery in mid May. In his last five starts, Wainwright has given up two runs or less in four of them, also striking out at least seven in all four of those efforts.
Chris Volstad has been nothing but consistent over the course of the entire season, and more accurately over the course of his entire career. In 26 career starts dating back to last season, Volstad has never given up more than four earned runs; and has given up exactly that many only four times. That marks a career of giving up three earned runs or less in 22 of his 26 starts, including 10 of 12 this year.
Against a team that has been as cold as ice at the plate like the Cardinals have, no reason to believe tonight won’t be another one of those three earned or less outings. This game should be a great pitcher’s duel with runs at a premium.
Good Luck!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am negative units on the season, as you can see in my signature and on my spreadsheet. While I do work really hard to cap these games and hope to finish the season in the green, don't want anyone tailing me thinking I'm better than I actually am. Hopefully if you choose to tail me its because you agree with my write-ups
.
