Nicky: Question about your Matchbook plays

[onthewhat]

Nicky, lets say in bases Pinny has -150/+140, and Matchy has +/-145...whats the play?

If Pinny has Lakers -6 -105/Magic +6 -105 and Matchy has +/-6 -101 whats the play?

How do you come up with your Matchy plays? Do you wait for Pinny move the bases game from -150 to -153 then hammer -145 on Matchy because the offers are out there waiting to be matched?

[Nicky Santoro]

1st one is a play.. it's a +ev bet.

2nd one is NO PLAY. it's a -ev bet.


i just get a feel by looking at the screen which way a game is moving. it doesn't always go my way, but more often than not. it's hard to explain it.

[Nicky Santoro]

btw, 1st one is a play.. i failed to mention it's +145..

that's the +ev bet..

[onthewhat]

So then with Matchy, and your guy calling, and locals giving you a good # to get off one sided action, you are pretty much on every game in the major sports right? Sides and totals?

[Nicky Santoro]

i have action on about 92% of the board.. i am a sick man, onner. from 7 pm till 2 am, i am on a bigger high than any crack addict. on any big night, i can do very well... but on any given night, i can go 3-22 and not sleep one wink.. that's what makes gambling great.. i've had months where i only had 4 winning days.. it's fukkin tough.

i need help, onner. this is not normal for a guy to live his life like this.. you have no idea the stress i go through.. i'll be lucky to make it past 50.

but would i trade this lifestyle for anything else? hell no..

[Ganchrow]

Nicky, lets say in bases Pinny has -150/+140, and Matchy has +/-145...whats the play?

btw, 1st one is a play... +145 ... that's the +ev bet..

Actually, assuming the Pinny market of -150/+140 unbiased, then fair value would be ±144.

Matchbook charges 0.6% on accept side MLB moneylines meaning that +145 gross is actually ~ +143.54 net.

Hence, neither side is prima facie +EV.

[Nicky Santoro]

Actually, assuming the Pinny market of -150/+140 unbiased, then fair value would be ±144.

Matchbook charges 0.6% on accept side MLB moneylines meaning that +145 gross is actually ~ +143.54 net.

Hence, neither side is prima facie +EV.

if it is matched, it's a +ev bet.. and then some.. 93% of my bets at matchy are matched anyway. i hardly take a game that is offered. unless it's a really good price.. in bases, it is very easy to have your offer matched. unlike hockey.

[onthewhat]

Ganch you are not in the same league as Nicky

Watch out before you say something stupid Ganch

[Thor4140]

i have action on about 92% of the board.. i am a sick man, onner. from 7 pm till 2 am, i am on a bigger high than any crack addict. on any big night, i can do very well... but on any given night, i can go 3-22 and not sleep one wink.. that's what makes gambling great.. i've had months where i only had 4 winning days.. it's fukkin tough.

i need help, onner. this is not normal for a guy to live his life like this.. you have no idea the stress i go through.. i'll be lucky to make it past 50.

but would i trade this lifestyle for anything else? hell no..

Serious question Nicky. Lets say u quit doing this because u had enuf of it. Do u think u can fill this time with something else in life? I think we have missed out a lot of life doing this but then i think if it is over we will be bored stiff.

[Nicky Santoro]

Serious question Nicky. Lets say u quit doing this because u had enuf of it. Do u think u can fill this time with something else in life? I think we have missed out a lot of life doing this but then i think if it is over we will be bored stiff.

thorry, it's the only reason i wake up in the morning.. no joke. thorry, i don't know how i'd pass my nights if there wasn't sports to watch with $$ on it.. what else am i going to do?? go out with the GF for supper.. ouch.. or watch some dumb reality show?? ouch even more..

without this life, i would be bored and lost. it brings joy to my life and gives me a reason to live..

[Ganchrow]

if it is matched, it's a +ev bet.. and then some.

True. But if taken it's -EV.

Let's just make it clear that if Pinnacle is at +140/-150 on an MLB ML, and one can find the same ML on Matchbook +145, then assuming an unbiased market that would represent a -EV bet.

[Nicky Santoro]

when onner says it's +/-145 at matchy, that means that it is probably -146/+145, or even more common a line would be -147/+145.. now if it's that, then it would be very easy to not only get +145, but he can easily get +146 now. which is a tad higher than +146 after extra commission... which is even better than his +145, and very easy to get the +146, too..

[onthewhat]

Nicky no one knows offshore better than you.

Ganch you are out of your league here with Nicky.

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky no one knows offshore better than you.

Ganch you are out of your league here with Nicky.

you tell him, onner..lol

[tullamore]

Nicky is it hard to get your bets in when onner's lips are superglued to your cock?

[blittydeuce]

Nicky is it hard to get your bets in when onner's lips are superglued to your cock?

[Willie Bee]

Nicky, is Matchbook where you have the pending American Idol bet on Kris Allen? LINK

[Nicky Santoro]

wilbert buddy, i was being sarcastic. AI was over 3 weeks ago..lol


i'm shocked you fell for that one..

[Willie Bee]

Just figured you were still trying to beat the closing line, ace.

[onthewhat]

Willie watch it guy

You are not in Nicky's league Willie

[durito]

wow

[Dazzez]

when onner says it's +/-145 at matchy, that means that it is probably -146/+145, or even more common a line would be -147/+145

Maybe that means it's '-145/+144 "or even more common a line would be" -145/+143'?

[durito]

this thread needs bumping

[onthewhat]

this thread needs bumping

[betplom]

Nicky no one knows offshore better than you.

Ganch you are out of your league here with Nicky.

Ganch doesn't want to play with you ontheNicky.