The brutal path of the random walk

[Justin7]

Yesterday was ugly. It was the worst day I've had in a long time... But I can't think of it as dropping a couple years worth of mortgage payments. It was especially bad, because all my overnight totals plays (including ones I didn't put on the sheet) didn't get any market agreement.

What wins early may not continue. If the market starts to take a dump on your plays that were good earlier, watch them closely. It could be the random walk (If the market agrees 70% of the time, it could still dump on you 4 times in a row 7.5% of the time).

As long as you you keep watching the market reactions, you'll be able to pull the plug before you get buried... or you'll see one bad day was just a hiccup. Either way, you'll make better decisions if you keep watching the market versus your plays.

[rake922]

ok

[Chi_archie]

solid post

couple years worth of mortgage payments.... that part was sobering for me to read.... Worst I do on a bad bad day is a couple months of gas money.... i'm small time, but it hurts just the same

[InTheHole]

For the last three weeks totals have no been going as they should....It sucks to give it away but everything will adjust.

[SlickFazzer]

its a difficult profession.

[CaneDawg]

there's always tommorow

[Justin7]

For the last three weeks totals have no been going as they should....It sucks to give it away but everything will adjust.

I didn't say I gave it all away... I'm actually up for the week. But the crazy fluctuations are maddening. I wish I could know how much I'd make in a year, and simply split the profits evenly over each week.

[rookie]

I didn't say I gave it all away... I'm actually up for the week. But the crazy fluctuations are maddening. I wish I could know how much I'd make in a year, and simply split the profits evenly over each week.

I am in midst of second reading of Fooled by Randomness. In chapter 3, Nassim Taleb presents the problem of portfolio volatility and emotional deficit. But, we can't run away from daily check of bet results. At least, I avoid following the games in progress for most part.

[Justin7]

I am in midst of second reading of Fooled by Randomness. In chapter 3, Nassim Taleb presents the problem of portfolio volatility and emotional deficit. But, we can't run away from daily check of bet results. At least, I avoid following the games in progress for most part.

Great book. Every sports bettor should read and understand it, lest they mistake noise as their skill at betting.