I know the payout isn't the best, but considering how many 1 run games there are, I love betting the teams that are +150 to +200 dogs and getting them around even to -130 on the RL. Initially it sounds like a chump move but when you look at how many 1 run games there are, these are really good bets. Anytime you start a game with the lead it just feels good. So many late inning walk offs, these are great plays. I also feel like most people play the -1.5 so naturally there's value in the +1.5's.
-
-
there is a natural edge in the +1.5 for an away team, in that you know your away team is gonna have 9 at bats no matter what.... so they might be down by 2 and get that last 1 run in the 9th and lose 5-4 and that's the ball game.. .but you win your wager... That being said.... there are a lot of other considerations to take into account to figure out if this is +ev bet.... you can't just blindly bet big dogs on the +1.5Comment -
by the way remmy, you really have to pick your spots with the +1.5 because I remember reading somewhere that NO team has ever been profitable for a full 162 games on the +1.5..... yes there are alot of one run games.... but even the worst underdogs win right around 40% of their games and the best favs lose 40% of theirs Straight up... so that +1.5 only eats into your profit with dogs except in maybe an extra 15% of games where the dog loses by 1Comment -
lineshop you can find some golden opportunities.
like kc +1.5 -125, philly +1.5 -180Comment