Nicky Santoro

[englishmike]

Mr Santoro: This beating the closing number buisness, how do you know you're going to beat it?

Say team A is -105 and it moves to -108 and then goes back to -105 and closes at -103, what number did you get and at what point did you get it?

Just curious. It strikes me that beating the closing number is no different to capping the games, you guess a line will move or has moved and guess it will stay there or be even better, but if it moves the other way you're on the wrong side.

Is that right or not?

To me, beating a closing number is as aribatory as handicapping itself but I'm willing to listen to other views.

[Nicky Santoro]

guessing where a line is going to close is impossible.. some will go for you, some will go against you. i usually bet off #'s or when i get a call from my guys.

just look at justin7. .he always makes vids about having to beat the closing # to win at gambling.. he does all the research of stats all the time.. he handicaps teams, ptichers, bullpens, you name it.

today, he gives CLE +154.. 5 min after, CLE closes at +170.. he's given like 4 picks that i have seen and all 4 have moved big time against him.

Even he has a hard time predicting which direction a line will go.. I can't get everyone right, but I will say that of all my bets.. 15% move against me.. 15% i get the closing price.. and 70% of the time, i will beat the closing #.. and i only beat it cause i get a phone call from my guys or i find weak #'s that i play offshore or with my locals..

no one can predict this stuff. things happen every second

[englishmike]

i saw your answer in the other thread, thanks.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/190829-nicky-i-took-some-your-advice.html

[raydog]

the whole theory of beating the lines is great. truth is, there are some people who have more money than brains and they lose...and lose big. so sometimes when you dont beat a closing #, it doesnt matter because that # is moved by some fukking bigtime losing donk who just made a table max bet on the other side. cap the game and then find the best # and hope that the number moves in your favor and if not, not too far away from you.

i read somewhere that the majority of online wagers were made less than 5minutes before gametime. i cant remember where i saw it but with all the recreational bettors out there, its bound to be an undisputeable fact. its not always sharps or syndicates that move lines is all im saying

[Nicky Santoro]

you dont have to beat the closing line all the time to make money.. if you can beat it only half the time and the other half of the games, line doesn't change or just a few go against you, you can make $$ still.

there are tricks to do it. it's not that hard. there are books to follow on the screen that you wonder why their line is so diff than everyone else, and then 1 hr later, you see why as every book now moves in that books favor.

doesn't always work this way, but it does more often than not. the trick is to look at the screen alot and you can see same trends everyday. i stare at the screen probably 15 hrs a day, no joke. it's always open in my browser, even when i am posting, like now..

[pavyracer]

Nicky beat the line in the Eagles - Cardinals game in the playoffs after a dream where God revealed him the winning pick. If God is revealing you the winner ahead of time it is very easy to beat the closing line. Right, Nicky?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/135698-boys-i-have-proof-existence-god-pick-nfl.html

[Nicky Santoro]

paver, the incredible thing about you is that you never forget a damn thing.. you have an incredible memory.. you rmember everything.. unreal..

that happened 6 months ago and you still talk about it.. if you are here in the year 2054, i bet you'll still bring that up.. you never forget anything.

[Chi_archie]

wouldn't a big part of beating the closing line, be understanding the psychology of the square "public" bettors out there..... especially for a highly publicized game, such as nba playoffs, mlb playoffs, march madness, big college and nfl football matchups, monday night football ect....??????

[Nicky Santoro]

wouldn't a big part of beating the closing line, be understanding the psychology of the square "public" bettors out there..... especially for a highly publicized game, such as nba playoffs, mlb playoffs, march madness, big college and nfl football matchups, monday night football ect....??????

NO, it's impossible to predict which direction a line will go. i've seen games with sabathia on the mound opening at -170 only.. i'd say, wow, this line will probably shoot up to -210 by game time..public should be all over this.. just seems too low.. and what do you know, it closes at -155

we never know which way a line will go.. there's a reason that line opened up at -170. oddsmakers did not fukk up..