Going out on a limb: 6/2 MLB

[Justin7]

Boston/Detroit
Boston's Matsuzaka has looked horrible this year. In his last outing, he had 4 wild pitches. Porcello has exceeded everyone's expectations, allowing only 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts.

What could be more obvious? I'll take Boston (Matsuzaka) +131, put it on the lock board.

Recent trends ro not, Boston has the better bats. I make them a full half-run better. And enter bullpens - Boston has the edge there as well. I don't think Boston will close as a favorite, but the should be a small one.

Boston (Matsuzaka/Porcello) +131 (Cris), 1 unit.

[Brock Landers]

can't bet on that jap till he shows he knows what the fuk he is doing again. So Detroit or PASS.

[Justin7]

Oak/Chw (Mazarro/Colon) Over 9.5. Lock board!

[onthewhat]

You got a good number for Boston...what price is your total play?

[jellobiafra]

You're actually posting these as "locks"?? Et tu Justin?

Seriously though, it seems to me that you are relying a lot on "gut" with both of these and ignoring the stats you love so much. What about DiceK's stats would indicate he's anywhere near a lock today? Especially in comparison to Porcello... What about Colon's stats thus far would indicate he's a lock to go "over" against such an impotent lineup as the A's??

I wish you luck on these and your track record is strong enough to indicate you might be making the correct calls. I have to say I'm very surprised by not only the picks, but the certainty you express in both of them being that you are so statistically inclined. Not to mention using the word "lock".... kiss of death my friend, but good luck.

[khaliagent]

instead of the over why not go with the value with oakland?
if you think colon is not gonna be on his game enough to keep it under you might as well bet oakland with the value.

[onthewhat]

Justin has posted previously that his lock board is where he feels that he has approximately a 10% edge.

[jasont]

Boston/Detroit
Boston's Matsuzaka has looked horrible this year. In his last outing, he had 4 wild pitches. Porcello has exceeded everyone's expectations, allowing only 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts.

What could be more obvious? I'll take Boston (Matsuzaka) +131, put it on the lock board.

Recent trends ro not, Boston has the better bats. I make them a full half-run better. And enter bullpens - Boston has the edge there as well. I don't think Boston will close as a favorite, but the should be a small one.

Boston (Matsuzaka/Porcello) +131 (Cris), 1 unit.

Looks like a solid play, I can see a 3-3 type game going into the 7th, when Boston would have a clear advantage over the Tiger Bullpen. I might make a small play as well, nice post.

[Justin7]

I played over 9.5 -105. And as previously mentioned, the "lock-board" means I think I have a 10% edge on the play. You won't normally see those kind of edges in big sports on game day, but this is an exception: pitcher change, so it was effectively an overnight line.

I made the fair total 11.1. If my total is 1.5 runs or more above the betting total, I've been destroying games - both from units won, and market moves.

[onthewhat]

Justin do you risk a higher portion of the bankroll on your lock-board plays? How much?

[Lou Gobbo]

You're actually posting these as "locks"?? Et tu Justin?

Seriously though, it seems to me that you are relying a lot on "gut" with both of these and ignoring the stats you love so much. What about DiceK's stats would indicate he's anywhere near a lock today? Especially in comparison to Porcello... What about Colon's stats thus far would indicate he's a lock to go "over" against such an impotent lineup as the A's??

I wish you luck on these and your track record is strong enough to indicate you might be making the correct calls. I have to say I'm very surprised by not only the picks, but the certainty you express in both of them being that you are so statistically inclined. Not to mention using the word "lock".... kiss of death my friend, but good luck.

First off, I'm new to posting but, not new to the site. This guy seems sharp as a tack from watching his videos. I think he has two very strong plays, a pitcher making his third start off the DL usually shows improvment from the first two, then factor in Boston being the better team, and the price, I'll take it.Second, Colon is capable of getting rocked by a high school team, and Oak has Mazzaro making his big league debut. Lastly, he didn't say they were "Locks" he said he's putting them on his "lock board." GL.

[EaglesPhan36]

I had this one marked today. Looks like a lot of people are on this too. Price is down to +115 at last check.

[Justin7]

Justin do you risk a higher portion of the bankroll on your lock-board plays? How much?

Most of my plays are 1% of my bank; the stronger ones (like what I think these are) I risk more - up to 3%.

Price matters though. Over 9.5 -110 is a great bet. Over 9.5 -120 isn't nearly as great.

[Joe Sharp]

I believe that Dice K was working with "backup" catcher Kottaras last start. I woudn't blame 4 wild pitchers on a catcher but he should be a lot more comfortable tonight with Varitek behind the plate!

Best of Luck

[sweetjones55]

JustinT, what did you cap the Mets game at?

[Justin7]

JustinT, what did you cap the Mets game at?

NYM -155/8.3. Leans on NYM and over, but not enough to fire. Hmm... total is dropping. I might have to recheck rosters and reconsider.

[sweetjones55]

I really can't see the Mets dropping two straight after last nights loss and especially with Santana pitching today agasint the lowly pirates.

[The Hook]

Oak/Chw (Mazarro/Colon) Over 9.5. Lock board!

Gotta fade this one its cold and rainy here in chicago and as a sox fan they never do well agains pitchers they are seing for the first time. Look out of Cy Mazzarro tonight.

[fifawcs]

I'm with you on Red Sox today. Varitek behind the plate will definitely help Dice-K, who can still pitch btw.

[jellobiafra]

Justin has posted previously that his lock board is where he feels that he has approximately a 10% edge.

Gotcha. FWIW, both these games were under leans for me. BOS/DET was one of my stronger under leans on the board.

[Chi_archie]

Gotta fade this one its cold and rainy here in chicago and as a sox fan they never do well agains pitchers they are seing for the first time. Look out of Cy Mazzarro tonight.

where in chicago are you, hooks?

[Joe Sharp]

Nice call on the Sox Justin...... Who would have known Dice K would only give up 1 in 5. Beautiful. Papelbon can make the best of us sweat it out though!!

On to tomorrow

[jellobiafra]

Nice call Justin!

[j0hnnyv]

is this guy sharp or what

[jellobiafra]

is this guy sharp or what

Yeah. 1 outta 2 ain't bad.

[BobHarvey]

Gotta fade this one its cold and rainy here in chicago and as a sox fan they never do well agains pitchers they are seing for the first time. Look out of Cy Mazzarro tonight.

Nice call. I wish I would have read your post before I played the White Sox.

[Justin7]

Yeah. 1 outta 2 ain't bad.

I lose almost half my plays... What do you expect?

[jellobiafra]

Perfection, of course.

Seriously, nice easy cover on a dog.

[brock]

I got on this last night when you first posted it.
Thanks Justin7

[TheLock]

Nice work on BOS Justin

[TheLock]

Interesting thing about Justin is that he one of SBR's "sharp" posters but he is actually sharp AND posts plays.

We gotta a few really "sharp" posters who never post anything. But they're really, really sharp guys.