Books are telegraphing a Cavs win tonight..

[SBR Lou]

Cavaliers are down 2-1 in series, Game 4 in Orlando..

Not only are the Cavs favored in this game, they're still -130 to win the series..

The books are essentially saying they expect the Cavs to win tonight. If the Cavs lose tonight, it's almost impossible that they'd come back to win the series, yet they are -130 in the series...

[Willie Bee]

I'm just rooting for a Nuggets, Magic championship series to screw with the TV networks.

[LT Profits]

You are actually 100% right Lou - for a change (). That said, I am passing on the side tonight.

[SexyMit]

I don't know if that is going to happen. All these commercials with LBJ and KOBE talking shit to each other, its like they already have them going to the finals. It would only make sense, why make commercials with them 2 if they are not going to face each other in the finals! Just my opinion!

[LT Profits]

I'm just rooting for a Nuggets, Magic championship series to screw with the TV networks.

I, for one, would find that to be a very entertaining series.

But yeah, Howard/Melo is not Kobe/BronBron

[Fishhead]

I've had a great, great feel for the Magic in the playoffs(6-0 ATS)........

Having said that, I have no significant lean in game #4 of this series.

TOUGH GAME to handicap in my opinion.

FH

[LT Profits]

I've had a great, great feel for the Magic in the playoffs(6-0 ATS)........

Having said that, I have no significant lean in game #4 of this series.

TOUGH GAME to handicap in my opinion.

FH

Right, if the books weren't basically screaming CAVS WIN tonight with current series price, my lean would be toward Magic. As it is, I am just staying away.

[SBR Lou]

Another interesting nugget to chew on, 81% are on the Over through 7700 bets according to Sports Insights. Meanwhile the total went from 189 to 188 or 187.5.

[Fishhead]

Another interesting nugget to chew on, 81% are on the Over through 7700 bets according to Sports Insights. Meanwhile the total went from 189 to 188 or 187.5.

I liked the UNDER before you stated this........now I really like it.

THANKS

However, at 189 only........missed the boat here.

[pavyracer]

The second game of a two game homestand is usually an over. I thought everyone knew that.

[Wilforth]

I liked the UNDER before you stated this........now I really like it.

THANKS

However, at 189 only........missed the boat here.

It looks like a game going Over. If Lebron and Howard combine for around 60 points, the supporting cast should be supply up to 130 points. I think this goes Over.

[Ganchrow]

I'm seeing Cleveland at -125 to win the series off a 20¢ line at BetPhoenix. This corresponds to an implied probability of about 53.25%.

Pinnacle's 10¢ game 4 line of -118 on Cleveland implies a 52.96% win probability for game 4.

If we assume a -400 zero vig line for Cleveland at home in game 5, -500 at home in game 7, and Pick'Em in game 6 on the road, then my http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html gives an expected series win probability of 58.93% for Cleveland, implying that they'd be undervalued at -125.

Now I'm not suggesting that based solely on this simplistic analysis anyone go out and bet the Cleveland series at -125. But rather that after taking home court advantage for games 5 and 7 into account, the prevailing market series price does not on its face appear to suggest a higher win probability for Cleveland in game 4 than the 52.96% win implied by the Pinnacle money line alone.

[RoagBettor]

I'm seeing Cleveland at -125 to win the series off a 20¢ line at BetPhoenix. This corresponds to an implied probability of about 53.25%.

Pinnacle's 10¢ game 4 line of -118 on Cleveland implies a 52.96% win probability for game 4.

If we assume a -400 zero vig line for Cleveland at home in game 5, -500 at home in game 7, and Pick'Em in game 6 on the road, then my http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html gives an expected series win probability of 58.93% for Cleveland, implying that they'd be undervalued at -125.

Now I'm not suggesting that based solely on this simplistic analysis anyone go out and bet the Cleveland series at -125. But rather that after taking home court advantage for games 5 and 7 into account, the prevailing market series price does not on its face appear to suggest a higher win probability for Cleveland in game 4 than the 52.96% win implied by the Pinnacle money line alone.

The probability of the Cavs kicking Orlando's ass tonight is very high!

[FreeFall]

How are the books saying the cavs win tonight?

If I owned a book and 64% are ATS on the cavs. I'd want ORL to win so I only have to payout 36% to the ATS ORL and then keep the other 22% of cavs bets for myself. Not to mention all the juice I got from the cav side of the line.

[DeeWizzle]

The probability of the Cavs kicking Orlando's ass tonight is very high!

Nice translation.

[juuso]

I'm disagreeing with the line move and market slightly. I'm going with Orlando moneyline. Again, the Cavs have Lebron, who can take over any reasonably close game in the end by himself, but Orlando does have match up advantages on most positions and to keep the home advantage rest of the way, they need to take this second game at home as well. If they'll Lose ths one, they're likely done. They likely won't play with less intensity than they did in the first game. My estimated Orlando win probabilty ~53%

[LT Profits]

How are the books saying the cavs win tonight?

By keeping them as -130 favorites for the series despite being down 1-2 and Game 4 being in Orlando.

[jjgold]

This is the biggest trap in NBA history, The real line should be Orlando by at least 8-10 points.

If you take Cleve I think you do not watch basketball, the series o two teams is a total mismatch. Orlando might actually be 15 points better.

[L2Gunz]

jj...TAKE THE CAVS TONIGHT!!! serious...i will call you a lil after 5:00

[FreeFall]

By keeping them as -130 favorites for the series despite being down 1-2 and Game 4 being in Orlando.

Didn't the public make that line as it opened +100/-120 ? Books know the public will be hard on their MVP and favorite team the cavs. So you put the juice on that side to capitalize when the uneven money comes in on the favorite like the game?

I guess I'm missing the correlation if you don't mind explaining deeper.

[shantystar]

cav -2 bodog and under 188 at 5dimes.

[RoagBettor]

cav -2 bodog and under 188 at 5dimes.

Hopefully you're just giving us the lines and not indicating your plays.

[LT Profits]

Didn't the public make that line as it opened +100/-120 ? Books know the public will be hard on their MVP and favorite team the cavs. So you put the juice on that side to capitalize when the uneven money comes in on the favorite like the game?

I guess I'm missing the correlation if you don't mind explaining deeper.

Because if the books did not expect Cleveland to win tonight, Orlando would be decent sized favorites to win the series right now.

[xyzky]

cav -2 bodog and under 188 at 5dimes.

Shanty you like the Cav's at -2??

Please say yes!!! Please say yes!!!

[losturmarbles]

fact is cleveland should be down 3-0 right now. cleveland doesnt have an answer for orlando. im sure the nba and the vast public would like to see cleveland win tonight, but orlando isnt going to roll over for them. especially not at home. the fact that orlando should be fav'd in this game and yet 70% of punters are on cleveland, i'll take orlando +1.5 at even money.

[Shark79]

Cavs ML and Over for me 2nite.

GL to all

[edlaw]

i like to bring u a point about vegas pay-out in comparison to last nites game as a reference please thank-u 70% 0f the ML was on the lakers 30% was on the nugs---- 70% was on the over and 30% was on the under there was even exchange balance pay-out of 0 but in the spread line 55% was on the lakers and 45% was on the nugs so vegas won 10% on the spread line of the losers on the lakers dont sound like much but when your talking millions its alot LT comments please

[RoagBettor]

The line at Bookmaker for the Cavs to win the series is -135, and +115 for the Magic to win it.

Hope all you Orlando backers are jumping on that series price, up 2-1 with Game 4 at Orlando.

[peterblades]

you people are crazy if u like cavs tonight seems to me you dont know shit about basketball how can you spect cavs to win at orlando when orlando has dominated the cavs in all those 3 games? orlando should be 3 0 in the series not to mention a 4 point favorite

[peterblades]

ill take orlando money line im glad all the public likes the cavs makes me feel even better

[Shark79]

Public will win 2nite peter ... I hope so .

[Mriswith]

Another interesting nugget to chew on, 81% are on the Over through 7700 bets according to Sports Insights. Meanwhile the total went from 189 to 188 or 187.5.

Yeah - sounds familiar...watch out 4 another 25 foul calls in 4th QTR...w8, make this 30+, LBJ is playing...

bol,
Mris

[Blades]

The line at Bookmaker for the Cavs to win the series is -135, and +115 for the Magic to win it.

Hope all you Orlando backers are jumping on that series price, up 2-1 with Game 4 at Orlando.

I got the magic at +550 for a $50 bet....this was before the series, now I wish I felt stronger about it with their lead 2-1.

[SexyMit]

you people are crazy if u like cavs tonight seems to me you dont know shit about basketball how can you spect cavs to win at orlando when orlando has dominated the cavs in all those 3 games? orlando should be 3 0 in the series not to mention a 4 point favorite

Exactly my point. They have dominated all 3 games so why are they not favored by more. Why is Cleveland favored and they have showed nothing in this series. That is exactly what most people are doing is taking Orlando cause they are at home and getting points?? Why? They should be favored in this game again not getting points. I think Cavs win tonight just for that reason.

[pavyracer]

It's impossible to win back to back games in this round.