My new baseball strategy

[pavyracer]

I have tried this method for the last 7 days with very good results. I basically bet a pitcher that has won his previous start or surrendered less than 2 runs facing a pitcher that lost his last start by more than 5 runs earned. So far it has been hitting at a 80% rate. I don't even cap bullpens. Just starting pitching.

[G's pks]

Pavy just wondering... i am busy backtesting a system I just started...1-0 up to now. This sounds interesting... With my regular capping the first thing on my list I call pitcher mismatches...kind of like what you are doing. But I wanted to add...if this is working, seeing you are not including bullpens...

How about just betting the first 5 innings? Maybe check and see if this would also win at a high rate. You might be able to double down in situations or just the 1st 5 when you feel comfortable with the system...GL G.

[pavyracer]

I haven't tried it on first five innings because you pay more juice and usually they score the runs you need in the 6th or 7th inning and screw your FF.

[G's pks]

I haven't tried it on first five innings because you pay more juice and usually they score the runs you need in the 6th or 7th inning and screw your FF.

Depends on the way you look at it...if teams have a bad bullpen 5 innings can be the way to go! I have been successful with my 5 inning picks based on pitching mismatches and not having to worry about bullpens...

[pavyracer]

Four Games fit the model for tomorrow:

Blue Jays +102
Cardinals +104
Padres +115
Red Sox +110

Good Luck!

[durito]

don't forget to exclude pitchers whose last names start with the letter Q

[pavyracer]

durito do your thing and I will do mine. I have hit all my plays in baseball this weekend. This system only takes into account the last game the pitcher pitched. It's basically chasing back to back good games facing back to back bad pitching games. Most pitchers go in two game winning or losing streaks several times in a season.

[crisp]

don't forget to exclude pitchers whose last names start with the letter Q

don't forget you live in a mud hut.

[durito]

don't forget you live in a mud hut.

who are you?

[Richkas]

I have tried this method for the last 7 days with very good results. I basically bet a pitcher that has won his previous start or surrendered less than 2 runs facing a pitcher that lost his last start by more than 5 runs earned. So far it has been hitting at a 80% rate. I don't even cap bullpens. Just starting pitching.

I like this strategy

[pavyracer]

Four Games fit the model for tomorrow:

Blue Jays +102
Cardinals +104
Padres +115
Red Sox +110

Good Luck!

2-2 +0.25 units for Day 1 of this system.

I'm looking for eligible plays for tomorrow and will post them later.

[pavyracer]

Tomorrow's eligible plays:

Marlins +142
Giants -167

Good Luck!

[james4512]

lol who doesnt do that? The previous 3 starts is the most important stat when attempting to cap games. Another good strategy is bet the yankees over every game. Like 12 of their last 15 have been over

[pavyracer]

This is different. You only cap the last game of both pitchers. You only place a play if both occur which is one pitcher has less than 2 ER previous start and the other pitcher has more than 5 ER. It doesn't happen as often as you think.

[Justin7]

Pavy,

I wish you the best of luck with your system... But I think you're going to get screwed following this long-term.

How do you know if the price is right? You like Marlins +142, but what if it was Marlins -142? Would you still play it? Or Marlins -200? Your system doesn't look at price to decide if a play is valid. No disrespect intended, but I think this problem guarantees it will lose long-term.

[accuscoresucks]

some good thinking going on here
deffinately hours of research involved
i always used
era,whip,obp,team deffense

[Madetowin]

Pavy you da man

[Shortstop]

If you're turning a profit, it's all good. Good luck pavy!

[pavyracer]

3-3 +0.25 units

Today's Play:

Cardinals +126

No other games are eligible for this system.

[pavyracer]

4-3 +1.51 units

So far the system hasn't lost us any money. I took a quick pick at tomorrow's schedule and the eligible plays are Rays & Braves. I will post the lines when they are available.

[xyzky]

Pavy -
I wonder if you should cut off the favs at a certain price for your model? Say no higher than -150 or -160?

[pavyracer]

xyzky,

So far only 1 out of 7 plays was a chalk. I think the system filters itself so far. I would also like to point out that out of 3 losses one loss the pitcher had zero earned runs (1-0 loss in EI) and the other two the pitchers losses were with 2 ER's which means they were good picks. You will not expect to hit 100% with this system but it gives you a good chance to win since the picks are filtered before they become eligible for play.

[SexyMit]

Might be something worth watching

[xyzky]

Sounds good. The 1-0 loss was the Cards/Brewers game?

[mathdotcom]

Pavy,

I wish you the best of luck with your system... But I think you're going to get screwed following this long-term.

How do you know if the price is right? You like Marlins +142, but what if it was Marlins -142? Would you still play it? Or Marlins -200? Your system doesn't look at price to decide if a play is valid. No disrespect intended, but I think this problem guarantees it will lose long-term.

Justin, it's no different than always betting underdogs because you feel bookmakers inflate the price of favorites. If you follow that system, it doesn't matter whether the underdog is +2 or +20.

[losturmarbles]

Pavy,

I wish you the best of luck with your system... But I think you're going to get screwed following this long-term.

How do you know if the price is right? You like Marlins +142, but what if it was Marlins -142? Would you still play it? Or Marlins -200? Your system doesn't look at price to decide if a play is valid. No disrespect intended, but I think this problem guarantees it will lose long-term.

but he's not pricing the sides, he's assuming the market is giving him a fair number. he's just using his angle to pick a side and then aiming to get the best price he can. which if he used this system and made offers on matchbook, then he would be most likely be getting a +EV price anyway.

[pavyracer]

Sounds good. The 1-0 loss was the Cards/Brewers game?

Yes it was.

[pavyracer]

Thursday Plays:

4-3 +1.51 units

Braves +114
Rays -109