The Denver Deed is Done

[LT Profits]

I just bet Nuggets +126 for series.

Now this play may lose, but I thik this price is way off. It should be around Pick or maybe even Denver -115ish with three of the next four at home. After all, Nuggets will be favored in every home game.

[durito]

some quick back of the envelope calcs gives me den at 44% to win series which is right on pinny odds

[LT Profits]

How do you get 44% if Denver will be favored three of the next four games? Especially with their larger than ordinary home court advantage? As I said, I would make Demver around -115 right now.

(And this is coming from someone that picked Lakers to win NBA Title. )

[SBR Lou]

(And this is coming from someone that picked Lakers to win NBA Title. )

I definitely think this might be a bit of an overreaction. I hear your points about how Denver has been playing at home, but this is the conference finals so I think we can throw all prior stats out the window. And if we aren't, let's take a look at how the Lakers have faired as road dogs this year.

[LT Profits]

The Lakers were one of Denver's victims in the last two months, when they held LA to 79 points and 29% shooting.

I just don't think Denver will lose to ANYONE at home the rest of the year, that's how big their HCA has become.

[MonkeyF0cker]

How do you get 44% if Denver will be favored three of the next four games? Especially with their larger than ordinary home court advantage? As I said, I would make Demver around -115 right now.

(And this is coming from someone that picked Lakers to win NBA Title. )

Because there is nearly a 40% chance that LA will have home court advantage again after game three.

[pavyracer]

If Denver loses at home hell freezes over.

[LT Profits]

Because there is nearly a 40% chance that LA will have home court advantage again after game three.

More like a 33.3% chance, and that may be generous. I make Denver AT LEAST -200 at home.

[durito]

If Den is 62% to win at home every game and LAL is 70% to win at home every game, then DEN should win series 46% of the time.

[durito]

More like a 33.3% chance, and that may be generous. I make Denver AT LEAST -200 at home.

So I take it you are huge on them tomorrow night?

[LT Profits]

I prefer -3.5 to the ML.

[LT Profits]

Right, difference is I don't think you are giving Denver enough respect at home. I''d say 66% at home and Lakers 70% in LA.

ergo....-115ish

[pavyracer]

So I take it you are huge on them tomorrow night?

This may be my biggest bet since superbowl 08 when I had the Giants ML for 5 dimes durito. The Lakers would be ass whipped tomorrow night.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Right, difference is I don't think you are giving Denver enough respect at home. I''d say 66% at home and Lakers 70% in LA.

ergo....-115ish

We're simply going by the market. Blame every sharp and square in the world. Not us.

[LT Profits]

Although, even using yoiur numbers durito, +126 is +EV

[LT Profits]

We're simply going by the market. Blame every sharp and square in the world. Not us.

Understood, and market is overrating Lakers as usual.

[Phillth]

One word. ELEVATION

[durito]

yes, but lakers will be more than 70% at home in game 7