Justin's Mailbox 5-20-09 (Video)

[Justin7]

[BatemanPatrickl]

You forgot to address the PM I sent you asking what's your sign. Please let me know.

[Justin7]

You forgot to address the PM I sent you asking what's your sign. Please let me know.

Sorry, I missed that one. When did you send it?

[BatemanPatrickl]

Late last night when I was tanked. So, what's your sign?

[reno cool]

do you believe there's a general correlation between home and under, away and over?

[betplom]

Great show J7, I submitted my own question and I hope it gets answered on the next video.

[onthewhat]

nice vid

[Chi_archie]

real sharps don't drink dr. pepper

[onthewhat]

real sharps don't drink dr. pepper

they drink diet dr pepper

[Chi_archie]

they drink diet dr pepper

exactly same taste almost, same refreshment zero calories.

[The HG]

great show idea Justin, good topics

[AgainstAllOdds]

I made it!



Solid Vid.

[jjgold]

Not bad

Wear a different shirt your getting like me now

[RogueJuror]

Not bad

Wear a different shirt your getting like me now

lol

[mathdotcom]

justin sit up straight

thanks

[Chi_archie]

I think it is very very wrong to assume that there would be an equal distribution in the extra base hits up or down 6.5% depending on if a batter is facing a off-handed or same handed pitcher....

especially for left-hander hitters...facing left-handed pitchers

the # of hits may be 6.5% less when facing lefties in general, but the % of home runs I'm sure would be more towards 10-15% less.

A lefty hitter facing a left pitcher is more likely to get singles, little flairs, duck snorts, texas leaguers then he is to really square up and get good wood on a ball to drive it....

so the advice about the slugging % is WAY off

[Justin7]

I think it is very very wrong to assume that there would be an equal distribution in the extra base hits up or down 6.5% depending on if a batter is facing a off-handed or same handed pitcher....

especially for left-hander hitters...facing left-handed pitchers

the # of hits may be 6.5% less when facing lefties in general, but the % of home runs I'm sure would be more towards 10-15% less.

A lefty hitter facing a left pitcher is more likely to get singles, little flairs, duck snorts, texas leaguers then he is to really square up and get good wood on a ball to drive it....

so the advice about the slugging % is WAY off

It very well could be.

do you have any stats to back it up?

[Chi_archie]

let me crunch some numbers for a small sample size...

[Justin7]

let me crunch some numbers for a small sample size...

Whatever you find (which affirms or refutes either of ideas), I hope you share it. I'll even put in a "correction" on my next mailbox issue.

[Chi_archie]

ok only have a few mins, i'll try to find a place to give me stats on splits for the entire league of lefty vs lefty lefty vs righty, righty vs right, righty vs lefty... rather then do a bunch of calculating..

but just as a little check I took the top 5 lefty home run hitters of 2008 Howard, Dunn, Delgado, and gonzalez...

I didn't do doubles or triples yet, but just did homeruns, because that is where I suspected lefties would suffer the most vs lefty pitchers...

I got their splits off of espn.com and their cumulative numbers in 2008 were...


vs lefties 1016 ab's 58 homeruns or a hr every 17.51 ab's
vs righties 1895 ab's 138 homeruns or a hr every 13.73 ab's

so if you extrapolate that 17.51 rate to 1895 ab's you would expect a total of 108 homeruns from lefties vs lefties...

a difference of 30 homers

so 30 divided by 138 = 27.77% decline in home runs

now this group I used is obviously not a typical group either, but I think that the same numbers would hold up across the spectrum. I want to look at the top righty home run hitters, because I feel like righty hitters hit righty pitchers better then lefty hitters hit lefty pitchers....so less of a drop off...

[Pancho sanza]

The dropoff when a lefty faces a lefty is more dramatic than when a righty faces a righty, most likely because there are more right handed pitchers and right handed batters get more used to hitting off them.

On average, the dropoff is 8 % in batting avg and 14.7 % in extra basehits for lefty /lefty and 4 % in batting average and 5 % in exrtra base hits for righty righty.

This was based on 3 year averages for about 40 different players.

[Wrecktangle]

real sharps don't drink dr. pepper

...yeah, they drink Pepper from a glass bottle made with cane sugar...