NHL Conference Finals Preview (Article)
Red Wings and Penguins ready for Conference Finals
We started with 16 teams, all with dreams of hoisting the Stanley Cup. Now only four teams remain. Getting this far is familiar territory to three of them; Carolina won the Stanley Cup in 2006, Detroit won it last year, and Pittsburgh was the team they beat to do it. For Chicago, it marks the first time in 15 years they have been this far. Can they beat their fellow Original 6 opponent? And who will prevail in the East?
We started with 16 teams, all with dreams of hoisting the Stanley Cup. Now only four teams remain. Getting this far is familiar territory to three of them; Carolina won the Stanley Cup in 2006, Detroit won it last year, and Pittsburgh was the team they beat to do it. For Chicago, it marks the first time in 15 years they have been this far. Can they beat their fellow Original 6 opponent? And who will prevail in the East?
Well let’s just come out and say it; I got flat out slaughtered in my predictions of how the semifinals would go. My only correct prediction was that the Detroit Red Wings would win a hard fought series against the Anaheim Ducks; and it took a goal with just three minutes left in the game to break the tie to make that prediction come true. I was also right about Washington and Pittsburgh being very evenly matched and going to seven games; not so much with who would WIN game seven.
While I had Vancouver advancing, I give myself some credit for backtracking on that prediction after seeing the first two games. Once I saw that the tempo was fast paced and high scoring, I knew that Vancouver wasn’t going to be able to keep up, and hedged out of that prediction when the series was tied at 1-1. As for Carolina? They just made a fool out of me, as I underestimated them every step of the way, and they kept rising to the challenge.
But the last two rounds are a thing of the past, and the regular season is now far in our rear view mirror. We’ve seen what these four teams are capable of in the playoffs. The question is; can we use those observations to pick some winners? If my last round is any indication, the answer is “hell no”, but that isn’t going to stop me from trying.
#2 Detroit Red Wings (-195) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (+165)
Do you like offense? Good. Because there is going to be plenty of it in this series.
While both teams boast a respectable core of blueliners, the Chicago Blackhawks have made it quite clear what their strategy for success is; score, score, and score some more.
In round one they played a Calgary team that was willing to try to play the same type of game and go toe to toe with the Blackhawks. That didn’t bode well for them as they picked up only two wins in the series before being sent home.
Round two, Chicago played a team in Vancouver that relied on a steady mix of defense and goaltending as well as a consistent but not overpowering offense. I thought Vancouver would control the tempo, but Chicago steamrolled right over them, scoring at will and coming back from multiple deficits against one of the best goaltenders in the game in Roberto Luongo.
You can’t take anything away from the Chicago Blackhawks. They had a great regular season and they’ve had a great run in the playoffs. They’ve also proven to be substantially more physical than they got credit for, and their age and experience has clearly not been an issue to date.
But what happens when they run into a team that matches up perfectly against them? Calgary was willing to play the Blackhawk’s style of play, but they did not have the personnel or the talent to keep up. Vancouver tried to slow them down but failed. In Detroit, Chicago once again meets a team that will be willing to throw caution to the wind and play fast paced fun and gun hockey. But unlike Calgary, this team has the tools and the depth to beat them at their own game.
Detroit’s first round sweep over Columbus was child’s play as they dominated a clearly inferior and shell-shocked opponent. In the second round they met the Ducks, who are perfectly built for the playoffs; they are mean, gritty, talented, and they always get hot goaltending at the right time. This is a nasty team that pushed Detroit to the limit.
But Chicago while physical and defensively capable in their own right doesn’t have the shutdown defensive style that the Ducks did. They also don’t have the veteran playoff experience or the Stanley Cup rings that the Ducks did.
I can see Chicago winning this series, don’t get me wrong. They have the firepower to make no lead safe, making them a very tough team to keep down and out. I used the same terminology when predicting the Bruins would beat the Hurricanes that “both teams play the same style, but the Bruins play it better”, and obviously I was wrong. But one of the main reasons I believe I was wrong was that Carolina had the intangibles; they have recently won a Stanley Cup and had the playoff experience and they knew what it took to dig deep and upset a superior opponent. In this series, not only does Detroit play the fun and gun style better, but they also have the intangibles and the playoff experience on their side. As such, I don’t see them losing this series.
Prediction: Detroit in 6
Betting Strategies: I’d bet the Detroit to win the series, and would also consider small wagers on Detroit in 6 and Detroit in 7 exact series prices. But most importantly, bet OVERS. Expect the lamp to be lit plenty and consistently throughout the entire series.
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-195) vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+165)
I wouldn’t shut up about the Anaheim Ducks. How they were the type of team that would never say die, was built for the playoffs, got excellent goaltending, just won a Stanley Cup a few years ago, and was being written off by everyone when they should be taken as a serious threat to win it all.
Meanwhile, I just so happened to be writing off a team that matched that exact same criteria in the Carolina Hurricanes. Funny how we can be selective with what we see, isn’t it?
Now granted, the Hurricanes and Ducks are two very different teams, and I still think the Ducks are the “better” team. But that doesn’t really matter now, does it? Given the choice of being eight wins away from being Stanley Cup champions and not having Vegas Dave’s approval or golfing this weekend and having Vegas Dave give you the thumbs up, I highly doubt Carolina would trade spots with Anaheim.
Both the first round and second round took seven games for Carolina to come out on top, and both games were won in the closing seconds, too. This team simply will not go away. New Jersey had the lead with less then two minutes to go in game seven; and they didn’t even make it to overtime.
Pittsburgh didn’t take the easy road to get to this point either. Falling to 0-2 to Washington, Pittsburgh had to defy the odds and claw their way back into the series, eventually pushing the series to a seventh game that they completely dominated. You can say what you want about Sidney Crosby’s attitude or that he “rubs you the wrong way”, but if you aren’t willing to accept the fact that he was deserving of all the hype and is an elite NHL talent, you are in serious denial.
This series is an awfully tough one to cap. Carolina appears to be outmatched on paper, but that doesn’t seem to bother them if the first two series are any indication. I’d actually give the goaltending edge to the Hurricanes as well considering how strong Cam Ward has been. But in the end, I have to side with the Penguins. Boston had a balanced attack, but didn’t really have any star power on offense. Pittsburgh has two of the three best players in the league on offense, and quite frankly I don’t think Carolina will have an answer for Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. I wouldn’t bet the series price against the Hurricanes since they are so pesky, but I do expect the Penguins to prevail.
Prediction: Pittsburgh in 7
Betting Strategies: I’d pick spots betting Pittsburgh in individual games when the juice was reasonable, and do the same for overs as I expect this to be a high scoring series as well.
While I had Vancouver advancing, I give myself some credit for backtracking on that prediction after seeing the first two games. Once I saw that the tempo was fast paced and high scoring, I knew that Vancouver wasn’t going to be able to keep up, and hedged out of that prediction when the series was tied at 1-1. As for Carolina? They just made a fool out of me, as I underestimated them every step of the way, and they kept rising to the challenge.
But the last two rounds are a thing of the past, and the regular season is now far in our rear view mirror. We’ve seen what these four teams are capable of in the playoffs. The question is; can we use those observations to pick some winners? If my last round is any indication, the answer is “hell no”, but that isn’t going to stop me from trying.
#2 Detroit Red Wings (-195) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (+165)
Do you like offense? Good. Because there is going to be plenty of it in this series.
While both teams boast a respectable core of blueliners, the Chicago Blackhawks have made it quite clear what their strategy for success is; score, score, and score some more.
In round one they played a Calgary team that was willing to try to play the same type of game and go toe to toe with the Blackhawks. That didn’t bode well for them as they picked up only two wins in the series before being sent home.
Round two, Chicago played a team in Vancouver that relied on a steady mix of defense and goaltending as well as a consistent but not overpowering offense. I thought Vancouver would control the tempo, but Chicago steamrolled right over them, scoring at will and coming back from multiple deficits against one of the best goaltenders in the game in Roberto Luongo.
You can’t take anything away from the Chicago Blackhawks. They had a great regular season and they’ve had a great run in the playoffs. They’ve also proven to be substantially more physical than they got credit for, and their age and experience has clearly not been an issue to date.
But what happens when they run into a team that matches up perfectly against them? Calgary was willing to play the Blackhawk’s style of play, but they did not have the personnel or the talent to keep up. Vancouver tried to slow them down but failed. In Detroit, Chicago once again meets a team that will be willing to throw caution to the wind and play fast paced fun and gun hockey. But unlike Calgary, this team has the tools and the depth to beat them at their own game.
Detroit’s first round sweep over Columbus was child’s play as they dominated a clearly inferior and shell-shocked opponent. In the second round they met the Ducks, who are perfectly built for the playoffs; they are mean, gritty, talented, and they always get hot goaltending at the right time. This is a nasty team that pushed Detroit to the limit.
But Chicago while physical and defensively capable in their own right doesn’t have the shutdown defensive style that the Ducks did. They also don’t have the veteran playoff experience or the Stanley Cup rings that the Ducks did.
I can see Chicago winning this series, don’t get me wrong. They have the firepower to make no lead safe, making them a very tough team to keep down and out. I used the same terminology when predicting the Bruins would beat the Hurricanes that “both teams play the same style, but the Bruins play it better”, and obviously I was wrong. But one of the main reasons I believe I was wrong was that Carolina had the intangibles; they have recently won a Stanley Cup and had the playoff experience and they knew what it took to dig deep and upset a superior opponent. In this series, not only does Detroit play the fun and gun style better, but they also have the intangibles and the playoff experience on their side. As such, I don’t see them losing this series.
Prediction: Detroit in 6
Betting Strategies: I’d bet the Detroit to win the series, and would also consider small wagers on Detroit in 6 and Detroit in 7 exact series prices. But most importantly, bet OVERS. Expect the lamp to be lit plenty and consistently throughout the entire series.
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-195) vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+165)
I wouldn’t shut up about the Anaheim Ducks. How they were the type of team that would never say die, was built for the playoffs, got excellent goaltending, just won a Stanley Cup a few years ago, and was being written off by everyone when they should be taken as a serious threat to win it all.
Meanwhile, I just so happened to be writing off a team that matched that exact same criteria in the Carolina Hurricanes. Funny how we can be selective with what we see, isn’t it?
Now granted, the Hurricanes and Ducks are two very different teams, and I still think the Ducks are the “better” team. But that doesn’t really matter now, does it? Given the choice of being eight wins away from being Stanley Cup champions and not having Vegas Dave’s approval or golfing this weekend and having Vegas Dave give you the thumbs up, I highly doubt Carolina would trade spots with Anaheim.
Both the first round and second round took seven games for Carolina to come out on top, and both games were won in the closing seconds, too. This team simply will not go away. New Jersey had the lead with less then two minutes to go in game seven; and they didn’t even make it to overtime.
Pittsburgh didn’t take the easy road to get to this point either. Falling to 0-2 to Washington, Pittsburgh had to defy the odds and claw their way back into the series, eventually pushing the series to a seventh game that they completely dominated. You can say what you want about Sidney Crosby’s attitude or that he “rubs you the wrong way”, but if you aren’t willing to accept the fact that he was deserving of all the hype and is an elite NHL talent, you are in serious denial.
This series is an awfully tough one to cap. Carolina appears to be outmatched on paper, but that doesn’t seem to bother them if the first two series are any indication. I’d actually give the goaltending edge to the Hurricanes as well considering how strong Cam Ward has been. But in the end, I have to side with the Penguins. Boston had a balanced attack, but didn’t really have any star power on offense. Pittsburgh has two of the three best players in the league on offense, and quite frankly I don’t think Carolina will have an answer for Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. I wouldn’t bet the series price against the Hurricanes since they are so pesky, but I do expect the Penguins to prevail.
Prediction: Pittsburgh in 7
Betting Strategies: I’d pick spots betting Pittsburgh in individual games when the juice was reasonable, and do the same for overs as I expect this to be a high scoring series as well.
