... especially given that the Caps are -140 to beat the Penguins in game 7 tomorrow.
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That's easy. Cause if the Pens win they have a chance to win the cup. If the Caps win they would be swept.Originally posted by mathdotcomComment -
this is a very good price for the Caps in my opinion , but then again I don't follow much hockey ................... but I do get why your question is raised here that doesn't seem right to me at all.Comment -
It seems you're violating the transitive axiom.Originally posted by pavyracer
You're saying Pens > Bruins/Hurricanes, but if Caps win this series, it should be safe to say Caps > Pens.
Unless you believe, for some reason, the Caps' style of play will fail miserably against a team like Boston/Carolina, but the Pens will flourish against Boston/Carolina...Comment -
I'm saying that if the Pens win they will eliminate the Canes but if the Caps win they would lose to Canes because they played them more as division rivals.Comment -
Where are you getting these odds?Comment -
Originally posted by pavyracer
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Lines are at RoyalComment -
thats the dumbest thing you have ever said pavyOriginally posted by pavyracerComment -
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lol shortstop
where did you get that???Comment -
I think the oddsmakers are giving +900 to Caps because they believe the Canes will give them a tougher challenge than the Pens +360. It's much harder to beat division rivals in a 7 game series. This is assuming the Canes go by Bruins.Originally posted by blittydeuceComment -
Why is it harder to beat division rivals..?Comment -
Those odds make no sense. Before the Washington/Pittsburgh series, Pittsburgh had slightly shorter odds to win the Cup despite being series underdogs. I agreed with that, because Pittsburgh has a better chance to go all the way than Washington. However, +900 is way out of whack. Can we have a link?[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Because you face them 8-10 times a year. They know all your strengths and weaknesses. The crowd is more hostile on the road. These match ups always go to 7 games and everything is a toss up.Originally posted by mathdotcomComment -
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the pens +360 is a terrible bet.
I've noticed before the start of series similar thing too.
pit+750
was+900
though Wash was fav.
I'm guessing they figure some people love the pens and will take price.
Even if they are +100 in the remaining 3 series true odds would now be +700.
But they're likely to be huge dogs to Detroit, dogs today and to Boston. Maybe slight favs to Car.
My true odds estimate: 12/1bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Originally posted by mathdotcom
those lines are just horrible
Anaheim should be like 30/1bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
I wouldnt take Pens at 350 even if they beat the CapsComment -
yeah, the most glaring lines are Washington and Pittsburgh.
Chicago and Pittsburgh having the same line?
Washington having the same line as Anaheim even though Washington is arguably better and only has to win one game as opposed to two?[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Lol.But they're likely to be huge dogs to Detroit, dogs today and to Boston. Maybe slight favs to Car.
My true odds estimate: 12/1Comment -
Why not elaborate?bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
What are/were your estimates of Detroit vs. Chicago, Chicago vs. Anaheim, Boston vs. Wash, Carolina vs. Wash and Detroit, Chicago and Anaheim vs. Wash fair value series lines?Comment -
I'm going off the top of my head. Bostons win hurts the chances of both Pit and Wash.
Det vs Chi -200
chi vs ana -130
bos vs was-150
was vs car-140
det vs was-180
was vs chi-130
was vs ana-130
how's that?bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
pens r favored because i believe they won last years eastern confrence finals, and out of the 4 teams left int he eastern conference..they are the only ones who made it this far and beyond, books are assuming the penguins will do it all over again...
for the wings to be favored as stanley cup champs, is insane, they had chance after chance tonight to put away the ducks, and couldnt. i dont see them winning this year.
Im sticking with my instinct, first i had a feeling the flyers would make it to the finals. They got eliminated and just had a very very strong feeling the caps are going far, it felt stronger then the flyers instinct before the playoffs began(but i desregarded it only b/c im a flyers fan). Lets hope I am right.
+300 is a solid bet i might jump on for winning eastern conference finals..CapitalsComment -
Now using the rough market prices at the time of your post of Det-Ana -675, Wash-Pitt -130 and Car-Bos -180, you can do the math and figure out fair value. Hint: your estimated series prices don't come close to 12/1.Comment -
the simple .45 x .5 x.33 seems close enough
12.5-1
with Ana 7-1.
what part do you disagree with?bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Originally posted by reno cool
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of course it's different now.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
the books are never wrongComment -
By the way, I was right.Originally posted by Flyers09
Flyers, Capitals, and Flames not only didn't make the Finals, but they didn't make the conference finals.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment
