Indians +153
UNDER 10.5 -110
(Bet Jamaica)
Every once in a while a game strikes a resonant chord in my psyche. Growing up a Red Sox fan, betting against my team has always been hard up until recently. This is a game as a gambler I used to beat myself up over because I would let my heart get in the way of my head. Here are a couple of reasons why Cleveland will beat the Red Sox tonight and why the score will be under 10.5 runs.
1. Masterson as good as he is will be out pitched by Pavano. Pavano has not looked good this season. 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA is not something to fear. Masterson has looked Masterful sans ther Tampa Bay outing and logis would say that Masterson will outpitch Pavano. This is where I apply the "Bad pitcher faces good pitcher and keeps pace with him" theory. This happens in baseball often where the awful pitcher does just enough to keep the game close against the better pitcher. I can see the Red Sox stranding many men on base and Pavano working out of jams, but essentially comes out unscathed. Masterson will pitch decent as well, but the INdians will get the clutch hit.
2. Red Sox at home do not lose. True as this is, they are coming off of a 2 game sweep of the Yankees in NY. When the Red Sox beat the Yankees, their next game out usually is a letdown game. Look at the Tampa series following the 3 game sweep of the Yankees in Boston. This will happen again tonight. Ignore the home field advantage.
3. Cleveland cannot hold a lead. Once again, if Cleveland had not given up a big lead to Toronto yesterday, I would be more skeptical of the Indians bullpen tonight. With yesterdays meltdown, all eyes are on the Indians bullpen which I think will pitch much better than last night's Toronto debacle.
All in all I see the final score being
Cleveland 5 Boston 3
UNDER 10.5 -110
(Bet Jamaica)
Every once in a while a game strikes a resonant chord in my psyche. Growing up a Red Sox fan, betting against my team has always been hard up until recently. This is a game as a gambler I used to beat myself up over because I would let my heart get in the way of my head. Here are a couple of reasons why Cleveland will beat the Red Sox tonight and why the score will be under 10.5 runs.
1. Masterson as good as he is will be out pitched by Pavano. Pavano has not looked good this season. 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA is not something to fear. Masterson has looked Masterful sans ther Tampa Bay outing and logis would say that Masterson will outpitch Pavano. This is where I apply the "Bad pitcher faces good pitcher and keeps pace with him" theory. This happens in baseball often where the awful pitcher does just enough to keep the game close against the better pitcher. I can see the Red Sox stranding many men on base and Pavano working out of jams, but essentially comes out unscathed. Masterson will pitch decent as well, but the INdians will get the clutch hit.
2. Red Sox at home do not lose. True as this is, they are coming off of a 2 game sweep of the Yankees in NY. When the Red Sox beat the Yankees, their next game out usually is a letdown game. Look at the Tampa series following the 3 game sweep of the Yankees in Boston. This will happen again tonight. Ignore the home field advantage.
3. Cleveland cannot hold a lead. Once again, if Cleveland had not given up a big lead to Toronto yesterday, I would be more skeptical of the Indians bullpen tonight. With yesterdays meltdown, all eyes are on the Indians bullpen which I think will pitch much better than last night's Toronto debacle.
All in all I see the final score being
Cleveland 5 Boston 3
