You ever see something that just doesn't make sense?

[Justin7]

Overnight night lines. Texas +134 vs Seattle (Millwood/Hernandez). Huh?

Why isn't this game Pick?

I'll give 6:5 odds that you can scalp off +134 tomorrow before game time.

[sweetjones55]

Lol I saw the Heat team total 2nd half 91 points on 5Dimes. That didn't make any sense to me. I put the max allowed on the under and they cancelled my play right before the game started. So close.

[Chi_archie]

odds are holding steady....

Seatle's current roster has a combined lifetime avg of .302 over 305 ab's against Millwood.

Ichiro is 25 for 58 against him for a .431 lifetime avg...

Millwood has done horrible in Seatle the past few years

[Casperwaits]

Overnight night lines. Texas +134 vs Seattle (Millwood/Hernandez). Huh?

Why isn't this game Pick?

I'll give 6:5 odds that you can scalp off +134 tomorrow before game time.

What I have learned with baseball betting is a lot of times, people bet by looking at their starting pitcher match ups. In this day and age of pitchers going an average of only 6 innings, I NEVER look at the pitching matchups when I bet baseball. That said, looking at today's match up with those set of eyes likes the Mariners as the favorite. Texas' win yesterday gives me a hunch they will falter tonight. Seattle is playing very good ball and will continue that in tonight's matchup.

[Willie Bee]

I'm surprised the number is that high, Justin. But like Archie said, Millwood has not fared well at Safeco, dropping all three starts he made their in 2008 (12 earned, 16 total runs in 14 innings), and the Rangers are also still without Hamilton.

[jellobiafra]

If anything it tells me they are inviting you to bet on Texas today. BOL!

[MonkeyF0cker]

I think it makes perfect sense. Millwood's numbers are a bit deceptive to this point. He's been overperforming and the opposition he's faced haven't exactly been offensive powerhouses. Seattle is at home with their ace on the mound against a team that, should Millwood get into any trouble whatsoever, could easily give the game away with their bullpen. No value according to my numbers. No play for me.

[durito]

+146/-154

If I come up with something that far off, I usually assume I must be missing something.

[wildemu]

What I have learned with baseball betting is a lot of times, people bet by looking at their starting pitcher match ups. In this day and age of pitchers going an average of only 6 innings, I NEVER look at the pitching matchups when I bet baseball. That said, looking at today's match up with those set of eyes likes the Mariners as the favorite. Texas' win yesterday gives me a hunch they will falter tonight. Seattle is playing very good ball and will continue that in tonight's matchup.

this is awful logic. Yes, bullpens are a huge factor these days but you should never ignore the starting pitcher matchups. Would you blindly take Houston tonight just because they've had better success than Washington up until this point? Moehler is pure fade material and Lannan is capable.

[Justin7]

I double checked my lineups, and the look right. double check the bullpens... good. And I'm getting a very off number for tomorrow's texas-seattle game also, but the market told me to go to hell today.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Do you only use current season data, Justin?

[Nicky Santoro]

it is impossible to look at a # and just assume it is off.. just look what happened to you here.. game went totally opposite your direction.... keep trying to guess a game is off by just looking at it and you'll go broke..

[MonkeyF0cker]

He didn't "just look at it," Nicky. Jeez. Have you ever read other posts by Justin?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Justin, I think the discrepancy in your numbers comes down to only using current season data, if that's the case. If you look at Millwood's numbers in the past couple of years and head-to-head matchups along with bullpen statistics, there are some big red flags if you had anything close to a pick here.

[smoke a bowl]

My data takes prior yrs into account (correctly or incorrectly surely debatable)and I make sea -124 tonight so I also played Tex at these prices.

[suicidekings]

Without actually crunching the numbers, I thought the line looked right, but after capping the game (twice), I came up with pretty much even odds as well. However despite the good price on TEX, I like SEA to win this one, so I think for me it's a no-play. However, good value on the Rangers for those that see things going the other way.

[jasont]

Nice posts throughout this thread, Seattle should be the play, could be a close game though.

[Casperwaits]

this is awful logic. Yes, bullpens are a huge factor these days but you should never ignore the starting pitcher matchups. Would you blindly take Houston tonight just because they've had better success than Washington up until this point? Moehler is pure fade material and Lannan is capable.

My awful logic has given me 5 winning baseball seasons in a row. I think I will continue to use it.